CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What a thud. On to drizzle and mud season. The only thing worth watching now is how fast the pack melts up north and whether it's slow enough to avoid hydro issues. Yeah hopefully it doesn't melt too quick or else it's lots of pony-o's bobbing up and down a raging river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pretty much in line with the other guidance now. Last hold out is the Euro... but we've seen before the Euro do this and get too amped up and slowly ooze east. Euro....it would really surprise me if it didn't move some east but to assume the other guidance is done moving west is likely folly.Doesn't matter for many of you, but it does here. Uk still a nice hit. Don't know how it compares but would fit 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What a thud. On to drizzle and mud season. The only thing worth watching now is how fast the pack melts up north and whether it's slow enough to avoid hydro issues. who cares, get your butt up way north this year and enjoy an unreal spring skiing bonanza,freezing at night,warm Sun ski to noonish,grill on the deck in the Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Guys can't we keep the OT crying stuff in the banter thread? That's what it is for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 who cares, get your butt up way north this year and enjoy an unreal spring skiing bonanza,freezing at nigh,warm Sun ski to noonish,grill on the deck in the Sun. Well many of us can't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I don't know if the Nam is right but that is one crippling blizzard here. Damn. I hope you guys can squeeze something out of this. If not and if you have financial means, there is time to catch a flight to YHZ. Hotel right at the airport in a flat area. Would be a good spot to observe. Our dollar is cheap compared to yours as well.[/quotePost pics and obs. Make sure measurements are In inches for us dumb Americans that never learned the metric system. I'll post a link to our local weather forum for those that have an interest in following along. I don't want to clutter your thread plus I know what a near miss feels like so don't want to rub salt in open wounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Guys can't we keep the OT crying stuff in the banter thread? That's what it is for Yeah, we need to keep tracking the Stellwagen bank snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I've read all 60 pages of this discussion and it seems like the only consensus at the moment is that the models may not provide reliable snowfall accumulation predictions for New England until inside of 24 hours. There seems to be a lot of moving parts and a margin of error of 50-100 miles makes a huge difference in what we get. Kind of funny to see some people while others still on board, considering there's been a ton of "wobbling" on the actual development and path of this track amongst the major global models for several days now. I continue to reserve judgement until tonight's Euro comes in. By that point, we should have a lot more information on the moving pieces starting to come together and some real data for the models to digest. Just my two cents... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well many of us can't do that.its spring winter is over,happens every year. Ride the Euro PV enjoy the 6-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Guys can't we keep the OT crying stuff in the banter thread? That's what it is for I agree. As much as it sucks for those who won't see much from this (myself included)...it is still a potential big event for part of the region. So I'd ask for those who have lost interest in this one to kindly post in another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yeah, we need to keep tracking the Stellwagen bank snowstorm. You don't have to track anything. But the dual sets of rules around here are tiresome. There's a banter thread for the bridge jumpers and mud watching. If the euro comes in 70% of what it was last night will you still have no interest? It had virtually full ensemble support at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You don't have to track anything. But the dual sets of rules around here are tiresome. There's a banter thread for the bridge jumpers and mud watching. If the euro comes in 70% of what it was last night will you still have no interest? It had virtually full ensemble support at 48 hours. I would say while there's still some good spread to the east, there is also a very nice cluster well to the west of the ecens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You don't have to track anything. But the dual sets of rules around here are tiresome. There's a banter thread for the bridge jumpers and mud watching. If the euro comes in 70% of what it was last night will you still have no interest? It had virtually full ensemble support at 48 hours. It's a joke. Interesting how you came around full circle in the last 24 hrs. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I would say while there's still some good spread to the east, there is also a very nice cluster well to the west of the ecens mean. If nothing else, they do give support to the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem is a solid hit here. Yeah some people doing exactly what they always preach against to others. Cough double standard. Solid snowstorm for the cape on the ukmet rgem and euro. ACK is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro....it would really surprise me if it didn't move some east but to assume the other guidance is done moving west is likely folly. Doesn't matter for many of you, but it does here. Uk still a nice hit. Don't know how it compares but would fit 4-8 has the 12z Ukmet even run yet? I was under the impression it hadn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem is a solid hit here. Yeah some people doing exactly what they always preach against to others. Cough double standard. Solid snowstorm for the cape on the ukmet rgem and euro. ACK is going to be fun I'm watching closely for this area. Euro is warning snows for Boston metro to northern Rhode island on east, and a big event on the cape. So far with guidance today, the euro idea may not be far fetched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's a joke. Interesting how you came around full circle in the last 24 hrs. Enjoy the snow. Mostly but not entirely. Hadn't really looked until today because I don't see the point given previous model performance this winter. The ukmet is out and still seems like a substantial hit for the cape. I did not compare to earlier runs. The euro may have a wobble here but I expect only within Wills range and for most of the cape that still means a significant late winter storm. This is usually when the euro goes southeast of Bermuda. If it stays within a 50 or so mile zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem is a solid hit here. Yeah some people doing exactly what they always preach against to others. Cough double standard. Solid snowstorm for the cape on the ukmet rgem and euro. ACK is going to be fun I thought the RGEM was def worse than Ukie...though better than the NAM/GFS. I'd like to see that model comes west again before getting gung ho out to the Canal region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Even a nudge 10 miles west on the Euro has enormous implications for a lot of the area..still worth a keen eye for Bos/Pvd SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I thought the RGEM was def worse than Ukie...though better than the NAM/GFS. I'd like to see that model comes west again before getting gung ho out to the Canal region. Really seems the hang up us now reduced to the hand off offshore. I imagine that's tied to speed differences. I'm on the hamster wheel so can't look. Case where the focus really needs to be aloft. Surface will be an artifact of the trends aloft. Slightly slower on all of these models with the diving energy immediately changes the trajectory offshore which will immediately change the development to a position west of modeled by ncep. At that point it's towards a uk and euro major hit. Given what we know about the models I have a hard time buying that the east outliers aren't going to come west further and if they do the run to run change at Mslp will be significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 *** all assumes no major init errors. No update from hpc on the diag even yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I thought the RGEM was def worse than Ukie...though better than the NAM/GFS. I'd like to see that model comes west again before getting gung ho out to the Canal region. Yeah its clearly ncep vs the world. Id like to think the latter is closer to the truth..but for obvious biases. Right now think the BOX map is looking pretty good..though I think ACK could double up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Really seems the hang up us now reduced to the hand off offshore. I imagine that's tied to speed differences. I'm on the hamster wheel so can't look. Case where the focus really needs to be aloft. Surface will be an artifact of the trends aloft. Slightly slower on all of these models with the diving energy immediately changes the trajectory offshore which will immediately change the development to a position west of modeled by ncep. At that point it's towards a uk and euro major hit. Given what we know about the models I have a hard time buying that the east outliers aren't going to come west further and if they do the run to run change at Mslp will be significant I've also noticed, at least on the GFS for the past four runs, that the Azores high has been trending west and/or stronger each run. Just something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Guys can't we keep the OT crying stuff in the banter thread? That's what it is for +1 Keep it going PV, ignore the riff raff and personal jabs. Will or CTRain or someone: can you explain the mechanisms for PVA out in the eastern-most low? Vorticity blossoms out of nowhere and eventually dominates over all the energy diving down from Ohio-Virginia. I would think the best cyclonic vorticity advection occurs emerging from the base of the trough closer to our western-most low, not way out to sea. A slightly more dominant western-most low and downstream impacts are big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yeah its clearly ncep vs the world. Id like to think the latter is closer to the truth..but for obvious biases. Right now think the BOX map is looking pretty good..though I think ACK could double up I know you are excited, but I definitely would keep in mind that the euro could tick east over the next run or two. Maybe it doesn't it and scores a huge victory....but as someone who has been on the line and disappointed before....I just hate to see some of you get let down. Hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 +1 Keep it going PV, ignore the riff raff and personal jabs. Will or CTRain or someone: can you explain the mechanisms for PVA out in the eastern-most low? Vorticity blossoms out of nowhere and eventually dominates over all the energy diving down from Ohio-Virginia. I would think the best cyclonic vorticity advection occurs emerging from the base of the trough closer to our western-most low, not way out to sea. A slightly more dominant western-most low and downstream impacts are big... Part of that is the result of the low just rapidly intensifying from the bottom up and thus the vorticity is almost self generated. These srn waves are notorious for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The eastern low has the best combo of WAA, PVA, and as Ryan said...static stability (owing to the warm gulfstream waters)...all letting the low completely go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ggem is significantly west. There's no denying what happened at 12z IMO. I doubt that focus change is over. Even if that drops us in the middle of the euro/this run compromise it's a major late year snow down here. Uk didn't seem to back off to me. Assuming because of panel lapse but looks like 1+ on the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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