Do We have one More in Us?

[Baroclinic Zone]

It actually had a better look

Down south and the energy is still pretty far west. Agree, not a bad look for 138hrs

And I thought it did not look as good.  Trough was not as sharp and ridging out W looked minimal(guess that's not as critical).  Huge cutoff showing up coming into the PAC W.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It actually had a better look

Down south and the energy is still pretty far west. Agree, not a bad look for 138hrs

This has legs, still ways out but who wants direct hits at this point.

Someone should wake up james nicholSON from his late season hibernation.

[CoastalWx]

And I thought it did not look as good. Trough was not as sharp and ridging out W looked minimal(guess that's not as critical). Huge cutoff showing up coming into the PAC W.

I meant the low was close to the NC coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, if this ever whiffed se.....the even distribution, and oscillations between rainers and whiffs would just be uncanny, and unmatched, at least in my memory.

Wow.

 

Just about perfectly rain-whiff-rain-whiff for about 40 days.

Big systems, too.

[Zeus]

Man, if this ever whiffed se.....the even distribution, and oscillations between rainers and whiffs would just be uncanny, and unmatched, at least in my memory.

Wow.

 

Just about perfectly rain-whiff-rain-whiff for about 40 days.

Big systems, too.

 

It's fun when Kevin is broken, but you? Just gross.

 

God, man. Pull yourself together.

 

Baseball in a few weeks!

[CoastalWx]

I thought the ridging out west wasn't bad. Heights actually were higher if you compare hr 120 vs hr 126 of the 06z GFS. Also, that energy digging on the backside of that trough look pretty sweet. I would have been more worried if it buried us.

[dryslot]

It's fun when Kevin is broken, but you? Just gross.

 

God, man. Pull yourself together.

 

Baseball in a few weeks!

 

Somebody better go tell ortiz

[ORH_wxman]

I thought the ridging out west wasn't bad. Heights actually were higher if you compare hr 120 vs hr 126 of the 06z GFS. Also, that energy digging on the backside of that trough look pretty sweet. I would have been more worried if it buried us.

 

 

The longwave positions are really good...we have plenty of room to amplify things....the key is watching how the main potent energy coming down the face of the ridge interacts with the leading vort energy...we don't want that first one to escape too far east and steal the baroclinic zone with it. I have a gut feeling that it won't though...the whole thing seems a bit too far west for that to happen, but at this point in the game, there's certainly other factors that could change too.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I thought the ridging out west wasn't bad. Heights actually were higher if you compare hr 120 vs hr 126 of the 06z GFS. Also, that energy digging on the backside of that trough look pretty sweet. I would have been more worried if it buried us.

It's just petty comments really in the grand scheme of it at this juncture.

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow, what a loaded title and sub-title that was, but they need to be.  There are two topics afoot that at least for me, I find interesting.

 

1 being the obvious storm threat for next week

2 being the emerging warm signal some three days later -- does it have legs? 

 

As to the storm next, it's been signaled pretty strongly in the teleconnectors for seven days. Indeed, many model type ensemble members have an important west Atlantic cyclogenesis.  In fact, I saw one GGEM ensemble member down to 946mb southeast of the Cape! 

 

Fantasies aside, the more important aspect to focus on is that - imho - we have better than a median chance for important cyclogenesis, beginning in the Tennessee Valley region, ...to then off the Mid Atlantic into the west Atlantic Basin.  Naturally, the degree of suppressed, or more polarward storm track cannot be addressed with very much certitude at this time, however, sufficed it is to say ... the +NAO that is heavily agreed upon by every agency, both man and air, would tend to allow a more left track (given time to correct in any individual model type, or their ensemble blended mean). 

 

Here is a the gist of the teleconnectors:

CDC -

 

Please take your attention to the top left panel, where I have annotated an impressive rise of ~ 3 standard deviations.  The PNA, as previously discussed ...over and over and over, and over and over again, until ad nauseam annoyance ...is a giant, giant domain. Changing the character of the mass field by even 1 SD is usually enough to raise an eyebrow, particularly if/when there are other cues (such as trend, MJO, etc...etc) that appear to be in large scale constructive interference. 

 

Case in point, the great loopty-loop MJO

 

 

Also note, the EPO is arriving into a -2 ish SD in it's own rite. What is interesting there is that the broader statistical scope has a negative correlation between these two domains.  So seeing the EPO plunge to certain depths, then relax ...just prior to the PNA rise, that is what we can call a relay: a great Alley oop, where the EPO delivers a floater, and the PNA slam dunks. In more boring terms, the EPO loads cold with the ridge pulse in the Alaskan sector, then the PNA rise tugs the cold south.  We see that happening, but more importantly, there is a lot of jet stream mechanics available to spin up cyclones, any one of which would potentially tap into a rather fantastic, albeit nascent thermal gradient/baroclinicity that would result of the TV-west Atlantic belt. ..Phew  

 

CPC -

 

 

What also intrigues me about this is that when we blow the dust off the tome's jacket, where is kept the spring bombs of weather lore ... the book tells this tale over and over again.  It is one that features the collocation in time of a late season cold pop with the available mechanics for a storm. We can experience inconsequential passes through eras of cold (or hot) in spring, but "weather" these temperature anomaly episodes are associated with something more is always a bit of a Russian roulette (bzzzzzzzzzzz -click BANG!)  That was the case in 1982, 1993, 1997, ...going back to even 1888. These storms were not necessarily analogs of one another -- but they did share that one common gene of similarity, and that's the coincident event scheme.  

 

As an aside, this is why March storms can also be of particular ferocity, because they are often delivered by vestigial strong jet mechanics, that can tap into nascent, increased thermal gradients associated with the typical seasonal heights burgeoning around the 35th (or so..) parallel.   

 

So there's your canvas ... We shall see how the paint actually gets applied. Again .. the typical disclaimer is employed:  this does not discuss p-types, or who gets how much therein. This is merely identifying an interval of enhanced potential. 

 

*********

 

Warm up there after, does it have legs? 

 

You know... it is like there is a 20% chance for a pattern roll-up beyond ...whatever takes place next week; however, that is a large possibility for that much lead time.  

 

With all the vagarious plausible outcomes for that long of a time lead, really creates a maddening menagerie to sift through. Particularly during the most fickle time of the year, period between the Vernal Equinox and oh, say ... April 15.  

 

However, a "possible" silencer of the din can come by way of the MJO.  The MJO and the mid latitudes of the Pacific appear to have found their way into a synced scenario of winds. Such that subtler variations in the behavior of the MJO, might just have a louder then normal influence on the larger circulation.

 

It's speculative, no doubt... but the storm that brought the big snows to NNE last week, the recent miss, and the possibility next week, all appear rooted in the recent strong wave propagation through the left side of the Wheeler diagrams.  

 

Which brings us to the end point.  The wave is forecast by most agencies to weaken, but still propagate through the 2-3-4 wave spaces.  At the same time the PNA begins to weaken toward neutral.  At the same time the NAO is if anything strengthening it's positive persistence (that's pretty remarkable in its self but a different discussion...).  I believe it does have legs, but I would not enter those legs into any marathon races, either.  

[Zeus]

Somebody better go tell ortiz

 

You'd think we'd have learned not to question him by this point in time.

 

But anyhow, until either the GFS or the Euro bring back a solid hit here on the approach to Wednesday of next week... there's plenty of reason to get excited about spring. Personally, I could use a 75º day. And a back rub.

[CoastalWx]

It's just petty comments really in the grand scheme of it at this juncture.

 

Right, I just didn't think it looked bad. But, plenty of time left.

[CoastalWx]

The longwave positions are really good...we have plenty of room to amplify things....the key is watching how the main potent energy coming down the face of the ridge interacts with the leading vort energy...we don't want that first one to escape too far east and steal the baroclinic zone with it. I have a gut feeling that it won't though...the whole thing seems a bit too far west for that to happen, but at this point in the game, there's certainly other factors that could change too.

 

The GFS looks like it was focusing on the 1st s/w. Man if you showed me that hr 126 prog...I certainly would not think it would go that far east. That looks a little suspicious.

[powderfreak]

Well you guys weren't that far from normal, meanwhile some areas of SNE have not even had an inch since Feb 18.

It's always our fault .

I had more inches of rain from December 25th through January 15th than snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

It's always our fault .

I had more inches of rain from December 25th through January 15th than snowfall.

 

Not saying it's your fault, but a pretty interesting screw job for parts of the region here. We've done some nice song and dances to avoid getting hit. It's like Arnold avoiding a mass of bullets from an AK47 and everyone wonders how the action hero is still alive.

[MJO812]

 GGEM

[CoastalWx]

You can see how the Canadian is reacting to that second batch of energy rotating in. Again, baroclinic zone on the east coast with retreating high helps, despite the parent low developing and moving offshore.

[Typhoon Tip]

OH crap -

 

sorry Kevin.  I just did write-up on things, but was not aware of this threads existence. 

[powderfreak]

Not saying it's your fault, but a pretty interesting screw job for parts of the region here. We've done some nice song and dances to avoid getting hit. It's like Arnold avoiding a mass of bullets from an AK47 and everyone wonders how the action hero is still alive.

Yeah I was just saying we did a very similar thing in mid-winter. And we were 50% below normal in the mountains in both Dec and Jan, regardless of what BTV had.

We had snowstorms in Ottawa to Montreal, and a bunch of decent events in I-95, but couldn't buy a snowstorm up here.

How often do you think NNE does a month or two in mid Winter of below normal temps, way above normal precip, but 50% of snowfal (30" on the mountain instead of 60-70")l? That's a hard couplet to get.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I was just saying we did a very similar thing in mid-winter. And we were 50% below normal in the mountains in both Dec and Jan, regardless of what BTV had.

We had snowstorms in Ottawa to Montreal, and a bunch of decent events in I-95, but couldn't buy a snowstorm up here.

How often do you think NNE does a month or two in mid Winter of below normal temps, way above normal precip, but 50% of snowfal (30" on the mountain instead of 60-70")l? That's a hard couplet to get.

 

Not very often at all. At least you guys made up ground. No complaints here as snowfall was way above normal.....hopefully we can add more next week and call it a winter.

[Baroclinic Zone]

OH crap -

 

sorry Kevin.  I just did write-up on things, but was not aware of this threads existence. 

I'll merge it in.

[CoastalWx]

LOL at the Canadian.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll merge it in.

 

Cool, thx!!

[ORH_wxman]

Canadian is definitely entertaining...dropping in as much energy as you see that far west...its almost hard to miss wide right.

[radarman]

That's shades of March 01 with the tremendous easterly flow and the late arriving u/l energy.

[Zeus]

That's shades of March 01 with the tremendous easterly flow and the late arriving u/l energy.

 

We do NOT talk about March 01 in this house.

 

See link for details.

[CTWeatherFreak]

LOL at the Canadian.

2 beasts in a row from this stellar model. We have continuity..

[powderfreak]

Not very often at all. At least you guys made up ground. No complaints here as snowfall was way above normal.....hopefully we can add more next week and call it a winter.

The amazing thing is always how Mother Nature likes her averages...the screwgies and jackpotters seem to rotate around, with the exception of Philly which must be ground zero this winter, lol.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Well you guys weren't that far from normal, meanwhile some areas of SNE have not even had an inch since Feb 18.

 

There may be parts of the Berkshires that have not had much over an inch since Feb 18th. 

That has to be close to climatologically impossible.  lol

[IsentropicLift]