Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gfs is off to the races way offshore. Could be right but looks pretty runaway at 5h way out there. Probably going to mess with the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gfs much improved too IMBY I can only see to 24 hours. How is it improved (not doubting, just wanting to see why you feel this way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Another dumbell low setting up... oy vey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I can only see to 24 hours. How is it improved (not doubting, just wanting to see why you feel this way) instantweathermaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Another run of the GFS where you could tell there were significant differences in the heights out west at hour 0. It's got an issue way offshore that seems like an error to me. Btw are the Carolina's about to get smoked with snow? I haven't looked at surface temps but yikes on these runs today if it's cold enough. Gfs did make a major cave too. I do worry about the offshore potential contamination. Sometimes the gfs is useful in making issues ridiculously obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I feel like this has been the story with alot of systems this winter....mid and uppers look good but it doesnt translate down to the surface well. Systems have escaped east alot in this fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 instantweathermaps Thanks... I always forget those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I can only see to 24 hours. How is it improved (not doubting, just wanting to see why you feel this way) Hubb, gfs blows. Look at 48h slp vs 60 from last nights run. Hundreds of miles slower. The only reason why these other models aren't going gangbusters is they're still trying to resolve the merger of the two systems. Slowly they're coming to a later further sw deal. Euro may move towards consensus but I'm convinced this other camp is still going west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Thanks... I always forget those Me too. Im usually on ewall but its always lagging behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 In which direction will it fart our storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Of course, my only point is, over the last 24 hours, the GFS has not proven itself as consistent as people have been saying it has been. The final outcome remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 See ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The offshore low is of course real. The problem is the ncep/Cmc stuff was too fast with the trailing impulses. So every run was allowing too much of an escape NE before the phase could occur. That's wrong so far everything today has folded dramatically slower. The gfs was really close too. It fires off the offshore low and does kind of have a run away aloft for a period which delays the eventually nuclear development of the low just enough to have everything further east. Let's look at the last 24 hours and safely assume these first three models aren't don't adjusting aloft. Upper 940s or 950s seems very reasonable east of the BM in 48/54 hours. Faster deepening at all levels gets precip further west. I do expect some compromise from what's left at 12z but I was really struggling with a significant late winter storm here this am on the ukmet and euro alone. Pretty jacked right now. Start 4-8 and work from there on the cape as the rest of the suite comes in. Significant boosts possible from OE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 In which direction will it fart our storm? Is it possible that the further southeast low is just a meso low from a strong MCS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not much change... I expect the Euro to come east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What a sh*tastic end to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 I expect a nudge west today on euro and Ukie based on everything else coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not much change... I expect the Euro to come east. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 What a sh*tastic end to winter.Winter ended on Feb 17 for all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not much change... I expect the Euro to come east. Ukie bumped a bit east too...though its still a decent hit for eastern areas and pretty big on the Cape...but I'd expect the Euro to follow suite as well with a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem came significantly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What a sh*tastic end to winter. What a thud. On to drizzle and mud season. The only thing worth watching now is how fast the pack melts up north and whether it's slow enough to avoid hydro issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Agree. Only 300 or so miles aloft in one main run. Pedestrian changes I guess for qpf queens though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem came significantly west Pretty much in line with the other guidance now. Last hold out is the Euro... but we've seen before the Euro do this and get too amped up and slowly ooze east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pretty much in line with the other guidance now. Last hold out is the Euro... but we've seen before the Euro do this and get too amped up and slowly ooze east. At sub 72 hours? You very well may be correct, but I always thought that was a day 4-5 thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem came significantly west It's back to it's original idea of two lows south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 One thing I noticed about the changes on the GFS in the last 24 hours - it doesn't translate into anything appreciable outside of the cape up here, but it is very significant for parts of the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I don't know if the Nam is right but that is one crippling blizzard here. Damn. I hope you guys can squeeze something out of this. If not and if you have financial means, there is time to catch a flight to YHZ. Hotel right at the airport in a flat area. Would be a good spot to observe. Our dollar is cheap compared to yours as well.[/quote Post pics and obs. Make sure measurements are In inches for us dumb Americans that never learned the metric system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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