ineedsnow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072 NAM now gets decent snows well back into CT ..even west of the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 The NAM has 0.00 qpf for most of CT. Why would you look at qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 FWIW, Harvey is pretty bullish on this. 4-8 southeast ma, 6-12 cape cod That isn't really "bullish", it a compromise between the EURO and the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Why would you look at qpf? What? This isn't some NAM solution where CT would see a band of snow despite what qpf shows...its pretty much ziltch west of RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I expect Kevin to smoke cirrus...maybe a coating if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That isn't really "bullish", it a compromise between the EURO and the world. Well bullish in a sense that he is the most agressive on air met. Still some time for a tick west here and there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well bullish in a sense that he is the most agressive on air met. Still some time for a tick west here and there Ok. Wouldn't know, don't watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 What? This isn't some NAM solution where CT would see a band of snow despite what qpf shows...its pretty much ziltch west of RI. I'm fully thinking 1-3 inches for all of CT..4-5 possible far eastern Ct up thru ORH..esp if Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I expect Kevin to smoke cirrus...maybe a coating if lucky. The irony of Kevin losing his bet but still doesn't see much snow out of it...instead, Phil gets 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm fully thinking 1-3 inches for all of CT..4-5 possible far eastern Ct up thru ORH..esp if Euro is right Certainly still possible...I wouldn't rule it out. But we need to see some ticks west at 12z today from the real models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM is a lot slower this run. The interaction beyond 36 will be key of course, but at least inside of there it's really bowed to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Certainly still possible...I wouldn't rule it out. But we need to see some ticks west at 12z today from the real model. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Certainly still possible...I wouldn't rule it out. But we need to see some ticks west at 12z today from the real models. I continue to laugh at these ideas of a sharp cutoff with this. This is not the set up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Bottom line to me, and it's all conjecture at this point is the loop de doop isn't likely to occur. We'll see a consolidation further SW than even the 12z NAM shows. By how much will be the question and any waiver east of the Euro this run would be expected as part of a move towards consensus. That said it looks like a glaring and somewhat typical bias on the NAM. I'm basing this on the assumption the Euro/UK are at least "mostly" right and the trend is towards a slower translation of upper features. When the NAM flops it's usually flopping in a major way and takes forever to come around, even a similar move to delay ejection of the upper features as we saw between 0z and 12z would dramatically change the outcome over SE areas. JMHO. This is from Debbie downer. agree... not much time to but will add that Euro 0z also consolidated lows faster and had less of a fujiwara swing of the coastal low... the consolidated low is sort of in the middle between the 2 lows (ie., not as far west as the western-most low), so the end result is not as impactful hard to argue against the WAA occurring far out east, but there is tons of vorticity Virginia up to Ohio (and a positive trend here too on the 12z Nam) and i wonder if NAM is even underestimating SLP development closer to coast... needless to say, the tug of war will have huge impacts for southeast MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I continue to laugh at these ideas of a sharp cutoff with this. This is not the set up for that Certainly is. Sharp cutoff to MEANINGFUL precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Certainly is. Sharp cutoff to MEANINGFUL precip.Meanigful snow in late Morch is 1-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 agree... not much time to but will add that Euro 0z also consolidated lows faster and had less of a fujiwara swing of the coastal low... the consolidated low is sort of in the middle between the 2 lows (ie., not as far west as the western-most low), so the end result is not as impactful hard to argue against the WAA occurring far out east, but there is tons of vorticity Virginia up to Ohio (and a positive trend here too on the 12z Nam) and i wonder if NAM is even underestimating SLP development closer to coast... needless to say, the tug of war will have huge impacts for southeast MA RGEM is hat in hand towards the Euro through 36. Note the push west of precip down in NC and up to almost DE. It's not the same as the Euro, it's allowing the SE piece to get out ahead still and any future compromise of the Euro towards that position will make a major difference up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Meanigful snow in late Morch is 1-3 inches that is not meaningful snow..are you kidding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Meanigful snow in late Morch is 1-3 inches Meaningful meaning 0.1" vs 1" not what is logical in that weenie mind of yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Meanigful snow in late Morch is 1-3 inches You have BOX and OKX in your camp. Edit: and ALY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I don't know if the Nam is right but that is one crippling blizzard here. Damn. I hope you guys can squeeze something out of this. If not and if you have financial means, there is time to catch a flight to YHZ. Hotel right at the airport in a flat area. Would be a good spot to observe. Our dollar is cheap compared to yours as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 You have BOX and OKX in your camp. Edit: and ALY. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM is a better hit on the Cape. 8mb stronger and definitively further sw at 48 hours with the features (closed this run south of 40 vs not and NE at 60 on the ggem). Big improvement, not quite enough. An equal shift in 12 hours yields a pummeling on the cape but we will see whether the west camps cave east. Any compromise of the Euro on the speed of the SE system will result in a solution that leans more heavily towards these others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM is a better hit on the Cape. 8mb stronger and definitively further sw at 48 hours with the features (closed this run south of 40 vs not and NE at 60 on the ggem). Big improvement, not quite enough. An equal shift in 12 hours yields a pummeling on the cape but we will see whether the west camps cave east. Any compromise of the Euro on the speed of the SE system will result in a solution that leans more heavily towards these others. Nice to have you back. Thanks for the pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Nice to have you back. Thanks for the pbp. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gfs much improved too IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Good stuff last few pages, nice to be not have to scroll hyper fast on the crapper through the garbage posts to get to some good thoughts between pv, orh, coastal, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gfs much improved too IMBY Hey Vortex, where abouts are you on the Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 that is not meaningful snow..are you kidding? He's a salesman. What he's engaging in is a clandestine damage control mission of sort. By the time the fail is upon him, he'll have softened the blow enough that its almost indectable to the naked eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Another run of the GFS where you could tell there were significant differences in the heights out west at hour 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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