Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Have been mostly out of the loop on this one all weekend as I didn't have good internet access....but the Euro is definitely the western outlier as I look this morning. The EC ensmebles though are fairly similar the to OP...more amplified than other guidance...though the UKMET does give it reasonable support. American guidance just isn't biting. American models wouldn't be able to resolve such a rapid deepening situation, what is a big red flag for me is the later RGEM and the 0z GGEM being quite a bit less prolific than the Euro/UK A GGEM Euro compromise has worked many times this winter, at this point that'd be the BOX maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 American models wouldn't be able to resolve such a rapid deepening situation, what is a big red flag for me is the later RGEM and the 0z GGEM being quite a bit less prolific than the Euro/UK A GGEM Euro compromise has worked many times this winter, at this point that'd be the BOX maps. I actually though the GGEM looked just as paltry as the 00z American guidance. 06z RGEM looked like it would be a bit deeper/closer...but not as much as the Euro/Ukie...so that might be a compromise. But I was extrapolating out...since RGEM doesn't go out far enough yet to see the frames where it would impact our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Have been mostly out of the loop on this one all weekend as I didn't have good internet access....but the Euro is definitely the western outlier as I look this morning. The EC ensmebles though are fairly similar the to OP...more amplified than other guidance...though the UKMET does give it reasonable support. American guidance just isn't biting. Tale will be told when one or the other folds @ 12z. One has to give into the other, it's getting closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Tale will be told when one or the other folds @ 12z. One has to give into the other, it's getting closer to the event. We're getting pretty close to the event, so I expect most shifts to be under 40 miles...but of course, 25 miles could make a big difference to those right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So close for you eastern folks. This has hurricane like forecasting where a wobble here or there changes impact greatly.....which wont be exactly nailed until nowcast time imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 for our NE canada friends, nice comparison between white Juan and whatever this one will be called. https://twitter.com/hurrchris/status/448078442714509312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Mixed feelings on this one. If it was January I'd be getting my truck washed tomorrow to taunt the weather gods. Want to take the cover off the boat. Would like to use my new generator once this year. Worst investment ever. You will use it. I've had one for about 8 years. Used it 3 times - Once for one of those tropical storms back in August a few years ago. Had it going for 6 days. Probably used it for a total of 14 days, but the investment was worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I actually though the GGEM looked just as paltry as the 00z American guidance. 06z RGEM looked like it would be a bit deeper/closer...but not as much as the Euro/Ukie...so that might be a compromise. But I was extrapolating out...since RGEM doesn't go out far enough yet to see the frames where it would impact our region. I figure the GGEM was .2 to .3, Euro 1 to 1.5 here, split the difference which is ridiculous at this range. This would be one of the worst fails if the Euro/ENS went down this hard in close. Almost unprecedented. Not unprecedented for the American guidance though. Just a weird deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I figure the GGEM was .2 to .3, Euro 1 to 1.5 here, split the difference which is ridiculous at this range. This would be one of the worst fails if the Euro/ENS went down this hard in close. Almost unprecedented. Not unprecedented for the American guidance though. Just a weird deal. You are talking a difference of 30 miles so that's not a big deal of error in the model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So close for you eastern folks. This has hurricane like forecasting where a wobble here or there changes impact greatly.....which wont be exactly nailed until nowcast time imo. Nice analogy. Gains more traction when a low gets this deep, regardles of origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 A little baffling that BOX doesn't have any watches or advisories for southern RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Newport County is in the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 LOL at the latest RPM. 2' from CC to Marshfield. 1' up to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 A little baffling that BOX doesn't have any watches or advisories for southern RI. Looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Surprised watches are up for Bristol and Plymouth counties. Box really weighing the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 LOL at the latest RPM. 2' from CC to Marshfield. 1' up to BOS. I've got a feeling about this one, idk. I still think we might get something good out of this. I'm in full-out wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I've got a feeling about this one, idk. I still think we might get something good out of this. I'm in full-out wishcast. I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I salute you. Whats your gut say for your yard seeing how youre right on the edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Surprised watches are up for Bristol and Plymouth counties. Box really weighing the euro As they said in their AFD they did it to buffer the Blizzard Watches for the Cape. Would be an odd looking map to have a Blizzard Watch for one area and noting just adjacent to it. HAVE 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN MEETING HIGH WIND AND WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. DEBATED BETWEEN WINTER STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES OR BLIZZARD WATCH. BELIEVE A LITTLE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND AND THINK BLIZZARD WATCH APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF EVENT THERE. HAVE ADDED A BUFFER OF ZONES IN SE MA AND FAR SE RI WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH. NOTE THAT THE ECMWF OP RUN WOULD SUGGEST THE NEED OF A WINTER STORM WATCH TO BOSTON AND PERHAPS EVEN WEST TO WORCESTER AND ALL OF RI...BUT THIS MODEL SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Whats your gut say for your yard seeing how youre right on the edge? My gut is not feeling this in terms of a siggy event here at my locale, but we have the 12z runs soon to agree or disagree with my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 My gut is not feeling this in terms of a siggy event here at my locale, but we have the 12z runs soon to agree or disagree with my gut. Siggy air traffic problems for BOS due to winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 My gut is not feeling this in terms of a siggy event here at my locale, but we have the 12z runs soon to agree or disagree with my gut. , I don't think the 1st model out at 12z should affect your gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Siggy air traffic problems for BOS due to winds? Nah, probably not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 , I don't think the 1st model out at 12z should affect your gut My wife also disagrees with my gut. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 My wife also disagrees with my gut. LOL. NAM = Indian Food Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Kind of funny that you have a retreating high, a low that wants to develop near HSE...yet moves over the Andrea Gail. Fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 My wife also disagrees with my gut. LOL. She must of got that from my wife.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NAM = Indian Food Only Indian food is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Surprised watches are up for Bristol and Plymouth counties. Box really weighing the euro No choice really. Euro is still the best model even though it's having a tougher year. It's supported by ensembles. The red flag to me is the CMC stuff being east. But given the time range they really have no choice but to weigh the Euro heavily. NCEP/HPC recommends the same course of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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