Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Op euro qpf: 0.5 to 495 0.75 BOS to PVD 1.0 PYM East of canal: 1.5-2 Box is going for it, blizzard watch down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Enjoy your 2-4 ray!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Op euro qpf: 0.5 to 495 0.75 BOS to PVD 1.0 PYM East of canal: 1.5-2 How about down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The differences between the Euro and everything else are insane. Euro is a raging blizzard on the Cape and probably into Plymouth and a part of Bristol County due to OES. NAM, GGEM and GFS really aren't close to that. Either an epic win or the exclamation point on a tough year for the Euro. Rgem looked good at 0z and then notsogood at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...*/ HIGHLIGHTS... * EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE WILL IMPACT SE MA TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH SNOW AND STRONG WINDS * MILDER WITH RAIN POSSIBLE FRI * ARCTIC AIR BRIEFLY REENTERS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN WEEKEND * MILDER AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MOST OF NEXT WEEK MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST SHIFT IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED TIMEFRAME AS EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF E COAST. THIS RESULTS IN QUITE A FEW HEADLINES. THUS...LESS ATTENTION BEYOND WED AND WILL GO LARGELY WITH A SUPERBLEND FOR THE THU AND BEYOND FORECAST ELEMENTS. OVERVIEW... REASONABLY GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTERACTS WITH FRONT OFFSHORE. BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS POINT TO A SURFACE LOW TRACK SOMEWHAT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...PERHAPS 50 OR 75 MILES OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH NEGATIVE TILT TROF POINTS TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION NW OF SURFACE LOW. A MORE BENIGN ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY PRECIPITATION FREE PATTERN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. TUE NIGHT INTO WED... AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ISSUE COMES DOWN TO TIMING OF DEEPENING AND PRECISE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF OP RUNS INCLUDING THE LATEST 00Z VERSION CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE FURTHER W AND HEAVIER ON THE QPF THAN THE GFS RUNS. UKMET ALSO APPEARS A LITTLE W OF THE SUITE OF MODEL CONSENSUS. ECMWF 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN JUST A TAD E OF 00Z OP RUN. HAVE GONE A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS OP RUN AND ENSEMBLE TRACK BUT A TAD CLOSER TO THE COAST IN DEFERENCE TO CONSISTENCY OF ECMWF FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN MEETING HIGH WIND AND WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. DEBATED BETWEEN WINTER STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES OR BLIZZARD WATCH. BELIEVE A LITTLE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE CAPE AND ISLAND AND THINK BLIZZARD WATCH APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF EVENT THERE. HAVE ADDED A BUFFER OF ZONES IN SE MA AND FAR SE RI WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH. NOTE THAT THE ECMWF OP RUN WOULD SUGGEST THE NEED OF A WINTER STORM WATCH TO BOSTON AND PERHAPS EVEN WEST TO WORCESTER AND ALL OF RI...BUT THIS MODEL SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR HIGH IMPACT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND FOR RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT ACROSS SW NH...NW CT AND MA N AND W OF WORCESTER. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS IN THE GRADIENT REGION IN BETWEEN. THIS LOOKS TO BE STILL ANOTHER STORM WITH A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE AND CONFIDENCE OF EVENTUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR IN PARTICULAR REMAINS QUITE LOW. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE SURFACE LOW OR LOCATION OF A PERIPHERAL DEFORMATION ZONE BAND COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. SEE COASTAL FLOOD AND MARINE SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS FOR THE TUE NIGHT AND WED STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I would be extremely pleased and surprised to see over 2" for me and Ray. I have my expectations set to c-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How about down here? 0.5 SE CT to about where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Maybe 1-3" BOS but a place like scooter close by might even see a surprise 3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 0.5 SE CT to about where you are. Thanks Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Little wobbles make big differences. This is why busting is so easy when the bulk of the populace is right on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just toggling between the 00z GFS & Euro you can see the Euro is a touch slower and deeper with the surface low and it's tucked in a bit closer by about 75-100mi at 12z on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Can anyone see the lowest surface pressure on the Euro and what the gradient is? The winds could be the best part of this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Maybe 1-3" BOS but a place like scooter close by might even see a surprise 3-5"? Do I get into the OES in South Duxbury? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Can anyone see the lowest surface pressure on the Euro and what the gradient is? The winds could be the best part of this event sub 952mb low almost due east of ACK by 150mi or so looks like the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 sub 952mb low almost due east of ACK by 150mi or so looks like the lowest. Weatherbell has it down to 948mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIsound Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Latest cutting edge model I am using Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Looking at the euro, its amazing to me just how close this is aloft to being something more. Not a weenie comment, but anyone east of ORH should still realistically keep an eye on things. Extremely unlikely given all the modeling being against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gusts to the 60's all of the cape and 70's kiss outer cape and ack on EURO. This storms looks destructive for the CAN maritimes, man screw the Cape it looks wild out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem looked good at 0z and then notsogood at 6z. RGEM doesn't have the dual lobe, without it, there's no western flank like on the Euro. Tendency this year has been for delayed consolidation which gives a little credence to the Euro but it's really out on its own. Do I get into the OES in South Duxbury? Unless something really changes it looks pretty favorable for OES in Plymouth county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Weatherbell has it down to 948mb Just a tiny bit overamped? not to be a downer here but I am guessing one of the reasons the EURO is so far west is it bombs the low to cazy levels like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Weatherbell has it down to 948mb Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Little wobbles make big differences. This is why busting is so easy when the bulk of the populace is right on the line.. I'm pulling for you Jerry! I hope we trend west today.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 These bombing lows obviously tend to drop a lot of snow when they go through bombogenesis in a short time period but there is always that one area that sees rates like nowhere else. For instance, New Haven during last year's blizzard was just ferocious. Right now despite the better track being for a place like Nova Scotia, the best snowfall rates are modeled right offshore as this thing drops like 60mb near the benchmark. If the Cape has that going for them if they can eek their way into a death band. It's not all that far from the outer cape and ack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The box map pretty much is the euro it would seem. If the euro verified that is. Southeast ma and the cape would see plowable snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Do we have an idea how well the energy dropping down was modeled with the 0z models? is it into area of better data assimilation yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just a tiny bit overamped? not to be a downer here but I am guessing one of the reasons the EURO is so far west is it bombs the low to cazy levels like this. I would agree but NCEP is going with the Euro/UK blend entirely but with low confidence. ...UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT... ...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ENTERING THE WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE ANCHORING THE WEST COAST WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GATHER STRENGTH AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY EVENING. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD AS IT QUICKLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. DURING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY WHILE AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE EXPLODES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SET OF MODELS VERSUS YESTERDAY BUT THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW OFFSHORE. ONE THING THAT LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE CYCLONE BOMBING OUT OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD TRACK EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES. THE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME DIFFICULTIES HANDLING WHETHER THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM. OVERALL THE LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR SOMETHING SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH NOW APPEAR TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS. THE 00Z UKMET HAS MADE A MOVE TOWARD THE EAST RELATIVE TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS DONE THE REVERSE SHIFTING MORE WEST. THIS ACTUALLY BRINGS THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER. THIS PREFERENCE IS DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COASTAL LOW. UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF GUIDANCE ARRIVES LATER IN THE MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET BUT CONFIDENCE WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW AVERAGE AS THE FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE NEBULOUS THAN BEFORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Do I get into the OES in South Duxbury? ...If not, you can surely get the exhaust of your truck piped into your window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ...If not, you can surely get the exhaust of your truck piped into your window. Mixed feelings on this one. If it was January I'd be getting my truck washed tomorrow to taunt the weather gods. Want to take the cover off the boat. Would like to use my new generator once this year. Worst investment ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro looks suspiciously far west with the moisture given it's development. I have a hard time with that type of solution. The 0z runs have tended to be the most severe all winter and then the 12z's correct back. Not sure why. Seems highly dubious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Have been mostly out of the loop on this one all weekend as I didn't have good internet access....but the Euro is definitely the western outlier as I look this morning. The EC ensmebles though are fairly similar the to OP...more amplified than other guidance...though the UKMET does give it reasonable support. American guidance just isn't biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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