Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Bingo. Amen. I get hung up on it too from a trend analysis standpoint. Nobody cares or wants to head it if that rend means less snow in there back yards. Just the nature of anything like this. Today perfect example. Critical differences between the more robust uk/euro and ncep type solutions. It didn't get a single posts worth of attention here. That's not the way it once was IMO. Anyway gfs is coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Better for the Cape and SE MA it seems. Some notable changes at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I got mocked for my conviction to certain ideals, because people feel they are either pompous or condescending, when in reality, I am just like the rest of you and have those ups and downs with forecast variability. My attitude isn't bad, and i tend to like the median outcomes on models better because it makes more sense to me than extremes. In this case, I have been doing my best to give you all a glimpse into what i am doing to help storm ideals, and all along the way I have only gotten 3 or 4 compliments on what I have contributed, albeit in a small way. These ideas help forge the forecasts for many people and give them a heads up. This storm has in no-way presented itself as a positive miss or a positive hit in either respect, so the options remain on the table. And I get frustrated when I see qpf/snowfall maps being produced before the dynamics are even forged out. 4 gfs model runs a day, 2 ecmwf, 2 canadian, 4 navgem, srefs plus other models..... Thats almost 20 changes in snowfall forecasts over a 24 hour period if you dont blend the options, The public doesnt want you updating and changing your totals 20 times a day leading up to a storm. Meteorologists and long-timers here will immediately go "Duh" but guess what, you are guilty of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Simply because public has a right to know the context of a storm. Also, you can read the article yourself. Any hyping was done by other media sources, i stood my ground about the possibility of change. This isn't a "whos right, who's wrong scenario" , that article was authorized to give the public who visits my site some insight into what was going on with the storm idea, and the chances. Love it when someone grabs a headline but never read the story.first lesson of Journalism, headlines define the story. Hyped headlines more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gfs is a pretty big meh for all of New England. Maybe 3-5 for ack but virtually bupkis for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I get hung up on it too from a trend analysis standpoint. Nobody cares or wants to head it if that rend means less snow in there back yards. Just the nature of anything like this. Today perfect example. Critical differences between the more robust uk/euro and ncep type solutions. It didn't get a single posts worth of attention here. That's not the way it once was IMO. Anyway gfs is coming west Is definitely interesting to see elongation of precip field back to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not on the right device to compare but gfs rgem nam kind of look like they came towards the euro in that it's a nice hit for late march. Ggem remains to be seen. Nasty day Wednesday with raging winds, OE type precip and some storm driven precip. We stopped the bleeding this run...now watch the euro tattoo sable island /badtrend this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 first lesson of Journalism, headlines define the story. Hyped headlines more so. Hyped headline? If I changed the word "may" to "will" then we would have an agreement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I had absolutely no issue with what you said. I was just using it as an example to illustrate that folks only criticize that type of behavior when they are championing the less snowy scenario. Sorry about that. No apologies necessary. Me personally: my utmost objective is quality. I could go to some crappy facebook thread if all I wanted was uninformed snow-mongering. I want quality, objective analysis, regardless of the outcome it favors. Obviously I want snow as does every single person here. But I've been on here for years and have taken stances in favor or against snowstorms as I see supported by data. For this particular storm, I think there's enough objective singularity and uncertainty in the evolution that there is, still, room for big shifts. Not at all an emotional assessment. I think we all should be criticizing posts that distort facts or distort interpretations of facts in favor of any particular outcome. There are plenty of posts that make unsubstantiated conclusions, draw from questionable sources, or just plain read things incorrectly. Those are the posts that should be criticized so as to improve the overall quality of these threads. And it would be nice if the personal jabs disappeared too, but doubtful that'll ever happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Better for the Cape and SE MA it seems. Some notable changes at 500mb. Models starting to focus on the low to the west more like last nights Euro run did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gfs is a pretty big meh for all of New England. Maybe 3-5 for ack but virtually bupkis for the rest of us. Gfs is a pretty big meh for all of New England. Maybe 3-5 for ack but virtually bupkis for the rest of us. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Models starting to focus on the western low more like last nights Euro run didIf this system is anything like all the others it's at this point the euro will throw out the comical well east run. If we are finally breaking from that maybe not.Gfs looks like it gets tangled up with some convective forces there that may play a role in delaying development. Ggem/euro should be interesting. Note I didn't say feedback. Explosive dev incoming just wondering if the gfs is having a hard time with it....it's way se early seems suspicious I'm going to bed but my gut says toss the gfs. Ggem and euro? Too much west east in the trajectory up here/.5 line there should be a good hook for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The early stages of the GFS (24-48ish) are much more west than later. In the end it only came 25-50 miles west but early on it was most certainly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If this system is anything like all the others it's at this point the euro will throw out the comical well east run. If we are finally breaking from that maybe not. Gfs looks like it gets tangled up with some convective forces there that may play a role in delaying development. Ggem/euro should be interesting. Note I didn't say feedback. Explosive dev incoming just wondering if the gfs is having a hard time with it....it's way se early seems suspicious I think the next 3 models out may be telling if we are seeing a shift to more focus on 1 low closer to the coast, Troff was further west as well on the 0z GFS then 18z and a little sharper as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I got mocked for my conviction to certain ideals, because people feel they are either pompous or condescending, when in reality, I am just like the rest of you and have those ups and downs with forecast variability. My attitude isn't bad, and i tend to like the median outcomes on models better because it makes more sense to me than extremes. In this case, I have been doing my best to give you all a glimpse into what i am doing to help storm ideals, and all along the way I have only gotten 3 or 4 compliments on what I have contributed, albeit in a small way. These ideas help forge the forecasts for many people and give them a heads up. This storm has in no-way presented itself as a positive miss or a positive hit in either respect, so the options remain on the table. And I get frustrated when I see qpf/snowfall maps being produced before the dynamics are even forged out. 4 gfs model runs a day, 2 ecmwf, 2 canadian, 4 navgem, srefs plus other models..... Thats almost 20 changes in snowfall forecasts over a 24 hour period if you dont blend the options, The public doesnt want you updating and changing your totals 20 times a day leading up to a storm. Meteorologists and long-timers here will immediately go "Duh" but guess what, you are guilty of it too.this is an open discussion board,people often show model output,we freely discuss options,we are not going public with it.I dont understand your points, its what we do and have done for. 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I think the next 3 models out may be telling if we are seeing a shift to more focus on 1 low closer to the coast, Troff was further west as well on the 0z GFS then 18z and a little sharper as well Pretty much asking for a meteorologist to troll you on this idea, even though you are absolutely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 this is an open discussion board,people often show model output,we freely discuss options,we are not going public with it.I dont understand your points, its what we do and have done for. 20 years. I didnt mean you specifically, sorry if you took it that way. Your comment wasnt really all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pretty much asking for a meteorologist to troll you on this idea, even though you are absolutely correct. ok, you've taken the tit for tat too far. if your gonna be sensitive when people dont agree with or praise you for your thoughts, then this isnt the place for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS still 150 miles from where we all want it when you look at the QPF totals streaks. Subtract the "The Deformation Band always sets up NW of where it's modeled" Rule and you're still at 125 miles. But it did come West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pretty much asking for a meteorologist to troll you on this idea, even though you are absolutely correct. Not to concerned, I have learned a lot on here over the years, We have some great mets in our forum, I would be up to the challenge though............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Prob bout same chance of finding Malaysian plane in one piece as anyone outside of cape to plow And i would say cape has less than 1 in 3 shot. Let her go And yes i will still wake up and look at models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ok, you've taken the tit for tat too far. if your gonna be sensitive when people dont agree with or praise you for your thoughts, then this isnt the place for you. Why so serious? Did I offend you for agreeing with someone? if so this isnt the place for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I got mocked for my conviction to certain ideals, because people feel they are either pompous or condescending, when in reality, I am just like the rest of you and have those ups and downs with forecast variability. My attitude isn't bad, and i tend to like the median outcomes on models better because it makes more sense to me than extremes. In this case, I have been doing my best to give you all a glimpse into what i am doing to help storm ideals, and all along the way I have only gotten 3 or 4 compliments on what I have contributed, albeit in a small way. These ideas help forge the forecasts for many people and give them a heads up. This storm has in no-way presented itself as a positive miss or a positive hit in either respect, so the options remain on the table. And I get frustrated when I see qpf/snowfall maps being produced before the dynamics are even forged out. 4 gfs model runs a day, 2 ecmwf, 2 canadian, 4 navgem, srefs plus other models..... Thats almost 20 changes in snowfall forecasts over a 24 hour period if you dont blend the options, The public doesnt want you updating and changing your totals 20 times a day leading up to a storm. Meteorologists and long-timers here will immediately go "Duh" but guess what, you are guilty of it too. So you're on here fishing for compliments and when you don't get them or someone disagrees we all get preached to like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 just looking at 0z GFS i think ppl may have already commented, but very good trends, not enough to get it done however: - trough is a touch sharper and more west - more energy is focused on low closer to the coast vs. east low This is the most significant piece I think: 0z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS still 150 miles from where we all want it when you look at the QPF totals streaks. Subtract the "The Deformation Band always sets up NW of where it's modeled" Rule and you're still at 125 miles. But it did come West. Like dryslot was saying, the most important changes to look for are in the troughing out west and and the possibility of a more dominant western pressure center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 May as well make my first post after lurking for a while. Animated Comparison of 18z RGEM (it says 00z, but it's the 18z) and afternoon 12z GGEM. Seems to favor the closer LP taking charge as opposed to the offshore LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Why so serious? Did I offend you for agreeing with someone? if so this isnt the place for you. you've been annoyed since the get go....ish isnt all that serious around here. lighten up. its all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 you've been annoyed since the get go....ish isnt all that serious around here. lighten up. its all good. Exactly. He seems so dead serious with everything. And can't take anyone disagreeing with him at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Exactly. He seems so dead serious with everything. And can't take anyone disagreeing with him at all. I love disagreements. And just because my mannerisms are a bit different doesn't mean I am stand-offish or attempting to break anyone's balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Guys this is all off topic. There's a banter thread for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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