Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Andy/Scott and I right on the rgem vs 12z ggem? That's a monster forming and it's well west. The 12z ggem at 60 was already crossing the 70 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 True, very true. What's sad though is that most times when its a whiff, they run and hide until the next time. Yes exactly, And are not held accountable for their actions, The public forgets and it starts all over again the next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You're fighting a losing battle. This is a snow lovers board first and foremost. There's nothing wrong with that but don't expect people to be happy with a non snowy outcome or happy with the persons saying that may be the case. Scott I know. That's why I mainly ignore this event until last night and today Being happy is one thing, taking it out on others is another. You think I'm happy about watching the cranberry bogs gets yardsticked, while I get cirrus di*ked??? Man, it makes me want to vomit, but its no one's fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How many tore him a new one? How many gave the other 5 back patters crap? The answer to that equation is a double standard. He made a tongue in cheek post in the middle of the freaking night Ray. Sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The RGEM can be amped up at hr 48, but yeah that's an interesting look. I can't really say too much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Being happy is one thing, taking it out on others is another. You think I'm happy about watching the cranberry bogs gets yardsticked, while I get cirrus di*ked??? Man, it makes me want to vomit, but its no one's fault. Well I don't think it comes to that..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 anyone claiming victory today is full of it, you have every right come Wed.like consensus never moved 50 miles in 60 hrs,happens frequently either way I agree with you here steve, With the complexity of this system, I have felt that it needs more time, Just some of these subtle nuances in the handling of some of these features has some implications going one way or the other, Lets wait until verification time to lay claims one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 anyone claiming victory today is full of it, you have every right come Wed.like consensus never moved 50 miles in 60 hrs,happens frequently either way True but this is why one SHOULD NOT be absolute in what they think will happen. rather they should be more open minded as to the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Party at Blair's place. Rgem would I think run pretty far west of the 12z ggem. I "think" I'm on my cell but it looks nasty. I suppose it could also do a 12z nam but that seems less likely. I would honestly love to be there for this, but probably a betterr shot that mby getting in the heavy snow shield. Jerry, my issue wasn't with him. I was just using him as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's kind of the point of all of this to try to determine what's going to happen before the event. We spend 35 pages talking about a threat beyond 5 days. I'm not sure why it's a problem that people stand behind their positions even if it means less snow 2-3 days in advance.theres a huge difference between standing behind your position and claiming you were right all along before an event occurs. You called for an historic biblical storm last night, good luck,hope you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 theres a huge difference between standing behind your position and claiming you were right along before an event occurs. You called for an historic biblical storm last night, good luck,hope you ate right Well, if you stood behind your position all along, and you ended up right....weren't you right all along?? It doesn't render you Paul Kocin, it just means you made a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Fact of the matter, the mean on the probability model I have been updating hasn't weighed west of benchmark at all. 4 days of data compiling and the weight has been to the east of BM the entire time. Probability Model with Line representing mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well, if you stood behind your position all along, and you ended up right....weren't you right all along?? It doesn't render you Paul Kocin, it just means you made a good call. That avatar says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well, if you stood behind your position all along, and you ended up right....weren't you right all along?? It doesn't render you Paul Kocin, it just means you made a good call. sure AFTER an event occurs not 60 hrs before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well I don't think it comes to that..lol. What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM looks pretty big. I'll await the am for further guidance but this has been a winter of very tough forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 can we get back to the program...whatever is left of it. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What do you mean? You talked about the cranberry bogs being yardsticked. I was just saying lucky for you it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 theres a huge difference between standing behind your position and claiming you were right all along before an event occurs. You called for an historic biblical storm last night, good luck,hope you ate right It's a historic storm Steve regardless of impacts in New England. It could be deadly for marine interests in the northwest Atlantic. I don't actively root for anyone here to get something other than the weather they want because for the most part I don't care. It's getting too emotional this winter and as we add more and more posters it's becoming geo-centric. I'm not really even sure what everyone is battling over, seems more like people being pissy over maybe missing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 sure AFTER an event occurs not 60 hrs before Gotcha. Technically, you're absolutely right. But I think part of the fun is speaking with conviction. Sure, we know that nothing is mathematically absolute until it happens....I think that is implicit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Fact of the matter, the mean on the probability model I have been updating hasn't weighed west of benchmark at all. 4 days of data compiling and the weight has been to the east of BM the entire time. Probability Model with Line representing mean if you believed it why did you author thisA Blizzard may be on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You guys are going to Love this. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gotcha. Technically, you're absolutely right. But I think part of the fun is speaking with conviction. Sure, we know that nothing is mathematically absolute until it happens....I think that is implicit. I am first to hand out kudos after an event and will do the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How many tore him a new one? How many gave the other 5 back patters crap? The answer to that equation is a double standard. Dude chill... We all want snow. Criticize a post for being factually wrong or interpreting the facts in an incorrect way. My posts have not been that. My posts have been objective analysis of what I see. Of course I was excited last night by the 0z Euro (who wouldn't be??). Fact is it was a hugely positive trend (blizzard for southeastern MA) by one of our most trusted models. Fact. And I specifically said last night that it's way too early to spike any footballs. And I never mocked or hinted insults at anyone, in contrasts to so many posts today. As I said last night and today, I still think there's room for some significant shifts because the outcome is extremely sensitive to subtle changes in timing and strength of the vort maxes rounding the trough. Box said essentially the same today. I wrote "window is closing" "where are those coffin nails" etc, but still objectively there is some room (albeit narrowing) for shifts. Nothing outlandish about that. And I, like you and probably every single person on here, will be thrilled if a snowier outcome unfolded. No reason for you to take personal offense or get emotionally riled up about that. I think we're cool, but if you want, let's continue this in PM so as not to clutter the thread. Interesting 0z runs incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 if you believed it why did you author this A Blizzard may be on the way! Simply because public has a right to know the context of a storm. Also, you can read the article yourself. Any hyping was done by other media sources, i stood my ground about the possibility of change. This isn't a "whos right, who's wrong scenario" , that article was authorized to give the public who visits my site some insight into what was going on with the storm idea, and the chances. Love it when someone grabs a headline but never read the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Dude chill... We all want snow. Criticize a post for being factually wrong or interpreting the facts in an incorrect way. My posts have not been that. My posts have been objective analysis of what I see. Of course I was excited last night by the 0z Euro (who wouldn't be??). Fact is it was a hugely positive trend (blizzard for southeastern MA) by one of our most trusted models. Fact. And I specifically said last night that it's way too early to spike any footballs. And I never mocked or hinted insults at anyone, in contrasts to so many posts today. As I said last night and today, I still think there's room for some significant shifts because the outcome is extremely sensitive to subtle changes in timing and strength of the vort maxes rounding the trough. Box said essentially the same today. I wrote "window is closing" "where are those coffin nails" etc, but still objectively there is some room (albeit narrowing) for shifts. Nothing outlandish about that. And I, like you and probably every single person on here, will be thrilled if a snowier outcome unfolded. No reason for you to take personal offense or get emotionally riled up about that. I think we're cool, but if you want, let's continue this in PM so as not to clutter the thread. Interesting 0z runs incoming. I had absolutely no issue with what you said. I was just using it as an example to illustrate that folks only criticize that type of behavior when it is exhibited by those championing the less snowy scenario. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I am first to hand out kudos after an event and will do the same You know I love ya, bro. Snow is serious business. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Gotcha. Technically, you're absolutely right. But I think part of the fun is speaking with conviction. Sure, we know that nothing is mathematically absolute until it happens....I think that is implicit. For some reason people have no problems with conviction to the snowiest outcomes but conviction with a furrowed brow towards the less snowy is a big issue. Nature of the board. Many will miss the distinction you are trying to make. But you're also looking for an explanation when the simplest one is most are here because they love snowstorms, not the science behind why one misses. Gfs baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 For some reason people have no problems with conviction to the snowiest outcomes but conviction with a furrowed brow towards the less snowy is a big issue. Nature of the board. Many will miss the distinction you are trying to make. But you're also looking for an explanation when the simplest one is most are here because they love snowstorms, not the science behind why one misses. Gfs baby! Bingo. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Me thinks this run will be better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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