CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Here is a way of looking at it. Weenies get pissed when the model they love blows a weenie 18" forecast 84 hrs out. People like me get pissed when a model that should have an idea blows a thermal profile for a whole region 8.4 hrs out. Kind of puts it into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 waste of a triple phaser so effing close....but i guess we cant have historic snowstorms every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It may be different down where you are, but up here it's been relentless for days. Note the headline "Blizzard conditions, heavy snow possible from midweek storm" This has been going on from every outlet, every source for days. Like I said there are districts that have already postponed their standardized tests this week that may not see an inch. http://www.wcvb.com I don't consider the UKMET a reliable model. IMO as useful as the JMA. Euro I thought was still .4 or .6 in Boston? Or did I read an old runs report? Yes the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z GEFS keeps the 0.5" mean QPF line east of ACK. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It may be different down where you are, but up here it's been relentless for days. Note the headline "Blizzard conditions, heavy snow possible from midweek storm" This has been going on from every outlet, every source for days. Like I said there are districts that have already postponed their standardized tests this week that may not see an inch. http://www.wcvb.com I don't consider the UKMET a reliable model. IMO as useful as the JMA. Euro I thought was still .4 or .6 in Boston? Or did I read an old runs report? it was wrong? I must have woke up from my coma Thursday night and missed it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Heck, if it's the 18z GFS that nails the final solution (90% confidence that it won't be), then the model that nailed it the best would be none other than the NAM. that's a red flag too-usually within 48 hours for the big deepeners, the NAM is in...see 2/8/13...the fact that it has nothing from the coastal speaks volumes...game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z GEFS keeps the 0.5" mean QPF line east of ACK. Ouch. Kevin's bet may still be safe. We may eek out a partly cloudy day here wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 it was wrong? I must have woke up from my coma Thursday night and missed it all Don't discuss, weenie. You will just make a fool of yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 just give ColdMiser 0.75" and i will be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z GEFS keeps the 0.5" mean QPF line east of ACK. Ouch.no faith either way honestly,remember our 18Z GEFS run 36 hours out 1 inch mean which ended up 0. Probably right but unreliability makes you wonder sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 no faith either way honestly,remember our 18Z GEFS run 36 hours out 1 inch mean which ended up 0. Probably right but unreliability makes you wonder sometimes Pretty strong consensus for a miss now. The trend has been to keep the trough flatter and delay the capture. See no reason to disagree with that now especially with Euro and Ensembles heading east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Kevin's bet may still be safe. We may eek out a partly cloudy day here wednesday. Lol. That would be a kick in the privates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pretty strong consensus for a miss now. The trend has been to keep the trough flatter and delay the capture. See no reason to disagree with that now especially with Euro and Ensembles heading east as well. No offense, and I don't disagree on the likely final result here, but how is one run "moving"? Wouldn't we need at least two runs to make a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Kevin's bet may still be safe. We may eek out a partly cloudy day here wednesday. looks like a great call right now....if he gets by Wed, he likely wins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 No offense, and I don't disagree on the likely final result here, but how is one run "moving"? Wouldn't we need at least two runs to make a trend? Everything has moved east today including the Euro and Euro Ens. It's not like everything has moved east but the Euro has held steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 it was wrong? I must have woke up from my coma Thursday night and missed it all Which run? The one that was a region wide significant event, the ones that only grazed, or this mornings that was still a sizable snowstorm over most of the eastern part of the region? I guess I don't understand riding the Euro when it's changed dramatically each of the last three runs. If we can avoid the bobble and instead get a more concise low developing everything could change very quickly here in close, but that hasn't really been the underlying pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lol. That would be a kick in the privates he was the jinx of all jinxes with this one. when he initially shoved his chips in, guidance would then go on to whiff. then when he folded as a result, guidance started to show some promise. so he decides to finally shove all his chips in plus his keys to the truck and claims he had it from the get go.......it whiffs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Everything has moved east today including the Euro and Euro Ens. It's not like everything has moved east but the Euro has held steady. No I agree, I meant just with respect to the Euro, as I thought you did when you said the Euro was moving east. It moved east, the next run will determine whether it was still moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Here is a way of looking at it. Weenies get pissed when the model they love blows a weenie 18" forecast 84 hrs out. People like me get pissed when a model that should have an idea blows a thermal profile for a whole region 8.4 hrs out. Kind of puts it into perspective. Not saying you are talking to me, but it was not horrible for this event. Outside one run it pretty much was all for a costal brush along with the gfs. That being said its hard to ignore how the euro is not as much as a lock as it use to be….Look at 3/3 and the drastic shift it had south inside 72 hrs, even when it had ensemble support. There was a time when the ensemble not agreeing with the op was a red flag on the euro, now it seems like it is a toss up. I understand the excuse that 96 hrs out is not a lock, but there was a time where this model lock in at this range. Even Will would say inside 72 hrs the euro is deadly, you can't say that anymore. To me you continue to ignore this and just say weenies being weenies….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 No I agree, I meant just with respect to the Euro, as I thought you did when you said the Euro was moving east. It moved east, the next run will determine whether it was still moving.for folks on the Cape the differences between the Euro and its Ens and the GFS and its Ens are immense, if the Euro is right they all trash the GFS,for the majority of us if the GFS suite is right its inconsequential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not saying you are talking to me, but it was not horrible for this event. Outside one run it pretty much was all for a costal brush along with the gfs. That being said its hard to ignore how the euro is not as much as a lock as it use to be….Look at 3/3 and the drastic shift it had south inside 72 hrs, even when it had ensemble support. There was a time when the ensemble not agreeing with the op was a red flag on the euro, now it seems like it is a toss up. I understand the excuse that 96 hrs out is not a lock, but there was a time where this model lock in at this range. Even Will would say inside 72 hrs the euro is deadly, you can't say that anymore. To me you continue to ignore this and just say weenies being weenies….. The Euro is still a blizzard for parts of the Cape. 25-45 knot winds, heavy snows etc. UKMET not much different. Those two are still leading the charge for a significant headline event here. Remains to be seen if that was a 24-36 hour fake out or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 for folks on the Cape the differences between the Euro and its Ens and the GFS and its Ens are immense, if the Euro is right they all trash the GFS,for the majority of us if the GFS suite is right its inconsequential. Most of the time at this range a Euro/GGEM compromise has been the way to go. We will see how that plays out this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 potential triple phaser for the cape and no sign of JamesNickles this past week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not saying you are talking to me, but it was not horrible for this event. Outside one run it pretty much was all for a costal brush along with the gfs. That being said its hard to ignore how the euro is not as much as a lock as it use to be….Look at 3/3 and the drastic shift it had south inside 72 hrs, even when it had ensemble support. There was a time when the ensemble not agreeing with the op was a red flag on the euro, now it seems like it is a toss up. I understand the excuse that 96 hrs out is not a lock, but there was a time where this model lock in at this range. Even Will would say inside 72 hrs the euro is deadly, you can't say that anymore. To me you continue to ignore this and just say weenies being weenies….. I never said it was...in fact I just said earlier models handled this fairly well. We can all pick events and say which modeled was better or worse..but you are also picking events where you were borderline in getting any moisture. Of course those events will stand out if a model flops south. Hell the GFS lost 2-3 (3-6") events inside 48 hrs locally when the euro barely had a tenth of an inch. Nobody talks about that. For me, I don't give a flop what models have beyond 72 hrs out. However, when I need something to rely on for thermal and synoptic details 24-48hrs out...it's the euro as number 1 for me. It may not always be right, but it's usually the best solution at that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 potential triple phaser for the cape and no sign of JamesNickles this past week.... Hasn't posted in a while, maybe lost interest. His posting frequency didn't just drop off though, it was a gradual slide to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Most of the time at this range a Euro/GGEM compromise has been the way to go. We will see how that plays out this evening. A beast lurking off the coast either way. CC is far enough East that it bears watching up until go time. Can't rule out a whiff or warning snows if you life in Falmouth or points West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pretty strong consensus for a miss now. The trend has been to keep the trough flatter and delay the capture. See no reason to disagree with that now especially with Euro and Ensembles heading east as well. From KENX AFD from this afternoon: MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A FEW DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...HOWEVER A DAY OR TWO AGO THE TRACK AVERAGED CLOSER TO AROUND 50 MILES EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...AND IT IS NOW MORE LIKE 150-175 MILES. THE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ARE MOST INSTRUMENTAL TO THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK ARE NOW BEING SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK. MODELS PHASE THIS ENERGY...AND AS THEY HAVE SHOWN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...PHASE TO THE POINT WHERE A 500MB LOW CLOSES...BUT OCCURRING TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TENDENCY OF THE SURFACE LOW IS TO BE DRAWN INTO THE DIRECTION OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW POSITION...NOT EXPECTING MODELS TO HAVE ANY EVENTUAL SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ALSO...SUNY STONY BROOK ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IMPLIES THAT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM HAS SHIFTED FROM MORE OF A POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO MORE OF AN INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS THEREFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM WHAT A CONSENSUS IS NOW SHOWING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 From KENX AFD from this afternoon: MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A FEW DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...HOWEVER A DAY OR TWO AGO THE TRACK AVERAGED CLOSER TO AROUND 50 MILES EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...AND IT IS NOW MORE LIKE 150-175 MILES. THE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ARE MOST INSTRUMENTAL TO THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK ARE NOW BEING SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK. MODELS PHASE THIS ENERGY...AND AS THEY HAVE SHOWN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...PHASE TO THE POINT WHERE A 500MB LOW CLOSES...BUT OCCURRING TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TENDENCY OF THE SURFACE LOW IS TO BE DRAWN INTO THE DIRECTION OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW POSITION...NOT EXPECTING MODELS TO HAVE ANY EVENTUAL SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ALSO...SUNY STONY BROOK ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IMPLIES THAT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM HAS SHIFTED FROM MORE OF A POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO MORE OF AN INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS THEREFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM WHAT A CONSENSUS IS NOW SHOWING. Nice discussion - agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I never said it was...in fact I just said earlier models handled this fairly well. We can all pick events and say which modeled was better or worse..but you are also picking events where you were borderline in getting any moisture. Of course those events will stand out if a model flops south. Hell the GFS lost 2-3 (3-6") events inside 48 hrs locally when the euro barely had a tenth of an inch. Nobody talks about that. For me, I don't give a flop what models have beyond 72 hrs out. However, when I need something to rely on for thermal and synoptic details 24-48hrs out...it's the euro as number 1 for me. It may not always be right, but it's usually the best solution at that timeframe. Excuse me as i worded my above post incorrectly, my intent was to say that the euro did well with this so far. I was not saying you where implying that it didn't. I agree about the euro still being the model of choice, hell if i didn't think that i would not pay for it for the past 3 years. I just feel it has not been as deadly as it use to be, but by no means am i trying to say the gfs and nam are better. Infact they should blow up the nam and try to improve the gfs…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 From KENX AFD from this afternoon: MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A FEW DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...HOWEVER A DAY OR TWO AGO THE TRACK AVERAGED CLOSER TO AROUND 50 MILES EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...AND IT IS NOW MORE LIKE 150-175 MILES. THE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ARE MOST INSTRUMENTAL TO THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK ARE NOW BEING SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK. MODELS PHASE THIS ENERGY...AND AS THEY HAVE SHOWN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...PHASE TO THE POINT WHERE A 500MB LOW CLOSES...BUT OCCURRING TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TENDENCY OF THE SURFACE LOW IS TO BE DRAWN INTO THE DIRECTION OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW POSITION...NOT EXPECTING MODELS TO HAVE ANY EVENTUAL SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ALSO...SUNY STONY BROOK ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IMPLIES THAT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM HAS SHIFTED FROM MORE OF A POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO MORE OF AN INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS THEREFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM WHAT A CONSENSUS IS NOW SHOWING. Good information, thank you. Albany's take is going to be centric to their CWA, but there was a lot of interesting points they made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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