Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ggem is even more of a scrapper than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If nothing else, I'd like to hit 80"...need 4.5" more.hopefully with 850 east inflow we can generate some saturated soundings prior to bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The 00z last night was as well.Ggem last night was considerably better for sema and cape cod than this run which is very pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 well sh ite even the GFS gives me 3-4 inches of cold windblown powder at the end of March, thats cool. Actually.,,,given the choice of wind blown 3-4 inches and mild sun in late March I'll forgo the snow. With those rates you'll be hard pressed to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Our hope lies on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Actually.,,,given the choice of wind blown 3-4 inches and mild sun in late March I'll forgo the snow. With those rates you'll be hard pressed to get an inch. Very low probability of mild sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 time to wave bye bye to this one. Cruel month. All we need is to miss something to the west and we'll have a four-fecta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Our hope lies on the Euro. Eh, pretty strong consensus so far for 12z... I would be surprised if it didn't edge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 time to wave bye bye to this one. Cruel month. All we need is to miss something to the west and we'll have a four-fecta. Sure that's what everyone said in NYC last night before the Euro. Are you that impatient that you can't wait an hour and a half before making a definitive call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Actually.,,,given the choice of wind blown 3-4 inches and mild sun in late March I'll forgo the snow. With those rates you'll be hard pressed to get an inch.well you definitely ain't getting mild sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The weenies in the NYC forum blaming convective feedback should look at the Euro...it does the same thing. That vorticity well off the NC coast is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sure that's what everyone said in NYC last night before the Euro. Are you that impatient that you can't wait an hour and a half before making a definitive call?that's his style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sure that's what everyone said in NYC last night before the Euro. Are you that impatient that you can't wait an hour and a half before making a definitive call? Come on. We're within 48-60 hrs and all guidance is steadily moving away from the big event. Even if euro held serve, it would be on it's own at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A lot of people in other forums are screaming Convective Feedback Issues with this run.. Any mets here see that? It's been in every model type, and every run, ...so far, to some degree, but certainly identifiable. A lot of these "double-barrel" low structures, and out-to-sea early cyclone implosions off the SE U.S. Coast are clearly rooted in huge latent heat release from excessive convection. Convective feedback is when a given model's convective parametric schemes gets an itchy trigger finger, ... so to speak ... and zealously fires off very deep convection inside the grid. This cause a huge, but erroneous, latent heat flux into the atmosphere over the convection, so much that the model then has to compensate for the release. It does this by producing a maximum of vertical velocity (usually in the 500mb sigma, and over the QPF max). Then, the other mechanical process kick in and we are left with meso-beta -scaled jet maxes; and thus, small but intense PV bundles (positive vorticity). Then, the model goes, 'oh, I have this intense PV; better drill a surface reflection or my boss is going get really pissed at my performance....' Look at the GGEM's 00z run? The NAM mysterious DPVA explosion S of NS?? Pick a model... even the Euro is suspicious of doing this. Non of this is an attempt to condone or dismiss a west or east track. The models could very easily correct for erroneous convective processes, only, much to the brutal chagrin of the consensus desire ...still turn out to be the greatest prick-tease storm (model journey relative to the hopes and dreams of man) in the history of computer enhanced hallucinations. Or the other way around, and all the consternation along this miserable journey would seem justified. Frankly ... there should never be any consternation, because it is pointlessly futile ... To the degree of needing to question sanity actually, considering that all souls are utterlly and infinitely impuissant over the vagaries of the wind! And indeed there is this funny yo-yo in bi-polar swings, from adulation to melancholy on every model cycle. Scott's right - it is kind of a guilty pleasure to sit back as a spectator, and watch the dark comedy portrayed by babblers upon the Internet stage. You can't help but curl you mouth into a grin, ...almost taking schadenfreude, for lack of better word. This is why people "troll," too ... They just take the latter to the extreme and derive real joy from other people's misery. But ... again, it's their own fault. It's misery that should never have existed in the first place. Anyway, from where I am sitting I haven't seen much variation on a theme for at least 3 days of modeling, quite frankly; powerful bomb of a storm that grazes. Some cycles try to position things west ...only to collapse east. The GFS has been the more guilty; but then the GGEM delivered that discontinuity with panache on that 00z "heart break" of a solution. Then there is this Euro notion of the storm just being so large that it clips a good bit of the area with warning event, regardless... I think seeing that we are inside of D4 here, the path of least regret is to stick with a 70/30 type blend, the majority being Euro-esque. And then wait and see how/if some of the issues discussed above get ironed out in very nearer time frames. Then, go do something else that makes you happy for cryin' out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Eh, pretty strong consensus so far for 12z... I would be surprised if it didn't edge east. Consensus has been gaining traction outside of the Euro since last night. I would also be surprised if it stayed put or went west...but I am going to let them run the model anyway, just 'cause I'm a nice guy and I don't want to hurt their feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Come on. We're within 48-60 hrs and all guidance is steadily moving away from the big event. Even if euro held serve, it would be on it's own at this juncture. I pretty much agree back this way... different ball game from BOS to Cape Cod though. Will have to wait and see what GEFS and Euro do. That's the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Eh, pretty strong consensus so far for 12z... I would be surprised if it didn't edge east. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 *. Ackwaves would get hit very hard on the ggem. Ukmet/ggem/gfs IMO are all late season warning criteria for outer cape and ack. Strong oes signal on all three as well for eastern coastal ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro is on its on island, and is the bomb. Usually the other way around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The weenies in the NYC forum blaming convective feedback should look at the Euro...it does the same thing. That vorticity well off the NC coast is real. The only people blaming convective feedback at least in my area are those who have blind ignorance for the setup..the mid and upper level pattern regardless of convective feedback or not is not conducive for big snow here. Different story on the Cape and SE SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The weenies in the NYC forum blaming convective feedback should look at the Euro...it does the same thing. That vorticity well off the NC coast is real.I looked real deep at the Euro after Ryans post,there is actually 8H circ in the Bahamas, Euro produced a much better defined circ off the Delmarva which became our storm,at hr 90 5H closes and both center's consolidated all levels stack. Again we have seen this occur before,will be interesting to see if the European sticks with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Consensus has been gaining traction outside of the Euro since last night. I would also be surprised if it stayed put or went west...but I am going to let them run the model anyway, just 'cause I'm a nice guy and I don't want to hurt their feelings. Euro solution relied on a delicate balance that didn't have much support to that extreme. That said it will likely continue to be on the western edge. We've had this issue all winter. No blocking. Models instinctively see a situation and want to wrap up major lows that phase multiple pieces of energy together at mid range. They have ensemble support usually. As the storm approaches models realize that initial pieces are going to wander east changing the outcome. Rinse and repeat even in late march with another scrapper is hard to believe but here we are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 EC will hold serve and it is right, no doubt in my mind whatsoever. Everyone is talking like its already a forgone conclusion that the rest of the crap is right, its not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ncep says now take the 0z euro and 0z euro ens but with below average confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 EC will hold serve and it is right, no doubt in my mind whatsoever. Everyone is talking like its already a forgone conclusion that the rest of the crap is right, its not. If you are going to post definitive statements, can you please explain your reasoning in a bit more detail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro solution relied on a delicate balance that didn't have much support to that extreme. That said it will likely continue to be on the western edge. We've had this issue all winter. No blocking. Models instinctively see a situation and want to wrap up major lows that phase multiple pieces of energy together at mid range. They have ensemble support usually. As the storm approaches models realize that initial pieces are going to wander east changing the outcome. Rinse and repeat even in late march with another scrapper is hard to believe but here we are.... if I woke out of a coma after going in it Dec 1 and this was the first post I read I would say wow what a crappy winter they had, then to find out I had 133% of normal snow I would have to post WTF are u smoking? Every winter has hits and misses,last month has many, to generalize is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 EC will hold serve and it is right, no doubt in my mind whatsoever. Everyone is talking like its already a forgone conclusion that the rest of the crap is right, its not. What are your thoughts behind this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Given the fact we are within 66 hours, I can't see the euro making much of a change..especially with ensemble support. If it was 84+ out then I'd be less certain of it not making a bigger shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Its hard to discount all models moving east regardless of what the euro shows. Its pretty much alone. I would be surprised if we saw another 00z type solution, but I doubt it makes a large shift. Still will be a good hit I think. Trend on any model that isn't the euro isn't your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 if I woke out of a coma after going in it Dec 1 and this was the first post I read I would say wow what a crappy winter they had, then to find out I had 133% of normal snow I would have to post WTF are u smoking? Every winter has hits and misses,last month has many, to generalize is wrong. Steve most of march has stunk for sne. That's what I was referring to in terms of snow. We have missed a ton of epic chances and are on the fence with another one. Ggem uk euro keep it very interesting....even the gefs. But Ray is right aside of last nights 0z euro it's mainly been focused in SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.