Bostonseminole Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 still lurking. people used to ride the Euro.. what happened? still the best model out there from what I have seen in the verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yes...it is.you have made up your mind and its blatantly obvious. Thats cool but 3 days is wrong. Multi models and Ens had major hits in that time period. I am watching, no call, nothing set in stone. Anyone who saw what happened last March should have learned,perhaps a revisit of that thread is in order because stuff happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nothing has changed for 3 days, save for waffles of individual runs. The consensus is what it is....scrape. What we are engaging is sping. I don't know. The euro last night was a huge hit, and some models have also been showing pretty big hits.The gfs consensus has been a scrape, but other models have not really been a scrape Ultimately that may be what happens though, a scrape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 you have made up your mind and its blatantly obvious. Thats cool but 3 days is wrong. Multi models and Ens had major hits in that time period. I am watching, no call, nothing set in stone. Anyone who saw what happened last March should have learned,perhaps a revisit of that thread is in order because stuff happens. The majority of guidance has never implied a big it at any given time. That is all I'm saying. I think every individual model has at one time or another, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't see any glaring issues with it. I think theyre talking about this eastern blob that shows up at about 54 hrs dragging everything east subsequently; its appearance being the basis for their convective feedback claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 no comment necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No one on land sees a big storm on todays gfs.depends on where you reside I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No, that fact that you can wrap your mind around the concept of a "consensus" is what is a bit ridiculous. Individual runs have waffled, sure. And what are my thoughts exactly then? You are the only one here throwing out predictions on the final outcome. Consensus is a 50-100 mile window that would mean vastly different things to your backyard depending on which side it ends up on. Nobody here is calling for a blizzard just because of the 0z Euro. There is something between that, and "spring." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You can see the isobars bend to the SE of the low center due to vort advection from the weaker vortmax to the southeast. I don't see anything wrong with the run. Sort of similar to the Euro in that you have two distinct areas of PVA, but the GFS just does not get the job done which is definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think theyre talking about this eastern blob that shows up at about 54 hrs dragging everything east subsequently; its appearance being the basis of their convective feedback claims. I thought the h5 trough was further west from early on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The majority of guidance has never implied a big it at any given time. That is all I'm saying. I think every individual model has at one time or another, sure. The GGEM GFS and Euro all had a big hit, all 3 ENS had on all up to .5 as far back as HFD. Just saying 50 miles on a 3 day lead is well within model error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Better depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 And what are my thoughts exactly then? You are the only one here throwing out predictions on the final outcome. Consensus is a 50-100 mile window that would mean vastly different things to your backyard depending on which side it ends up on. Nobody here is calling for a blizzard just because of the 0z Euro. There is something between that, and "spring." The "sping" was a reference to a famous DT typo in the past referring to a floundering late season threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The GGEM GFS and Euro all had a big hit, all 3 ENS had on all up to .5 as far back as HFD. Just saying 50 miles on a 3 day lead is well within model error Yes, true. We'll see. You all know my thoughts, so I'll drop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yes, true. We'll see. You all know my thoughts, so I'll drop it. right now if gun to head I would agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 now vs the GFS. Similar tone to last nights Euro where it's able to pull off the capture/phase a little further west. I put about zero value in anything from NCEP. R/GEM 12z Euro compromise until the end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 right now if gun to head I would agree with you. We're on the same page, you're just refraining from the absolutes, which is wise. Entirely fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The "sping" was a reference to a famous DT typo in the past referring to a floundering late season threat.Didn't know that, but I also don't see the analog yet. Maybe if all models move east at 12z, but you have been a broken record for three days.But if this ends up a scraper, then nothing has floundered, except maybe your own unpublished hope that this would turn into something historic. A scraper can still mean decent snowfall for some of the area. If you're not interested, then fine. But we get it already. Missed your last post. Let's all move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ukie is a good Cape hit...JMA is a whiff. Will look for the KMA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ukie is a good Cape hit...JMA is a whiff. Will look for the KMA now. Ausie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ukie is a good Cape hit...JMA is a whiff. Will look for the KMA now. Don't forget the Navgem and DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Didn't know that, but I also don't see the analog yet. Maybe if all models move east at 12z, but you have been a broken record for three days. But if this ends up a scraper, then nothing has floundered, except maybe your own unpublished hope that this would turn into something historic. A scraper can still mean decent snowfall for some of the area. If you're not interested, then fine. But we get it already. Missed your last post. Let's all move on. From the perception of the vast majority of posters, I think it would because its more missed potential. I wasn't saying it was an analog, just referencing a classis quote, more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We're on the same page, you're just refraining from the absolutes, which is wise. Entirely fair enough. well sh ite even the GFS gives me 3-4 inches of cold windblown powder at the end of March, thats cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 From the perception of the vast majority of posters, I think it would because its more missed potential. I wasn't saying it was an analog, just referencing a classis quote, more or less. It is possible to hope for a solution while still understanding that it is low probability based on guidance. I think many in this subforum, compared to other forums and boards, have done a good job keeping reality in check while still watching for the potential for more. Those who haven't have been very forthright that their opinions are based on no scientific evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 well sh ite even the GFS gives me 3-4 inches of cold windblown powder at the end of March, thats cool. If nothing else, I'd like to hit 80"...need 4.5" more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 well sh ite even the GFS gives me 3-4 inches of cold windblown powder at the end of March, thats cool. This. Now if that changes for the worst in the next 48 hours, sure I'll be a bit disappointed. But right now, consensus still gives us a measurable snow on March 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It is possible to hope for a solution while still understanding that it is low probability based on guidance. I think many in this subforum, compared to other forums and boards, have done a good job keeping reality in check while still watching for the potential for more. Those who haven't have been very forthright that their opinions are based on no scientific evidence. Yes, but any time you have hope, it implies there is room for disappointment. Yea, I've admitted that me calling it so early is unscientific, but the consensus has never been for a blizzard for the majority of the reason, either. You guys are right, though....it is definitely within the margin of error at this lead. No argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GGEM looks like the GFS. Not good at all. Misses everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GGEM looks like the GFS. Not good at all. Misses everyone. The 00z last night was as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This. Now if that changes for the worst in the next 48 hours, sure I'll be a bit disappointed. But right now, consensus still gives us a measurable snow on March 26th. Exactly. All I mean....we're on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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