JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The nam moved the low center 500 miles east in 6 hours...lol. Well sure, it still thinks the main low goes due E from Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z NAM gonna come in well southeast of 6z... from the look of it, lead low goes ballistic, might be having some convective feedback issues? Deadzone material until we get within 48 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The nam moved the low center 500 miles east in 6 hours...lol. Pretty reasonable. Lol. Do the Canadians run before or after the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 POS NAM. PLZ ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The nam does have 988 SW of the bm in the double barreled low structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What a rollercoaster of emotion on the board this morning, quite entertaining to read. I really see this as being a SE MA-RI special in the end. I am not getting hopes up here at all. These powerful complex lows really have a mind of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ride the UK. Ocean bombs most always track to the left. Flags are present to the upscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Man to sit back and not post and watch all the emotions is quite interesting. Lol.yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z NAM gonna come in well southeast of 6z... from the look of it, lead low goes ballistic, might be having some convective feedback issues? Deadzone material until we get within 48 hours... It is overdoing the convective feedback just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The nam moved the low center 500 miles east in 6 hours...lol. You see how it blew up that vorticity offshore between 6z and 12z Wednesday. I call complete BS on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Man to sit back and not post and watch all the emotions is quite interesting. Lol.yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You see how it blew up that vorticity offshore between 6z and 12z Wednesday. I call complete BS on this run. Not there and than it magically appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The Nam....bawahhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I know. And the water boarders are peeing on last night's excitement because they weren't there or they've publicly staked their flag on the other side. I don't think a single poster has spiked the football on a big event. Even the new posters realize this is still way too far out. I wish people could just objectively read the guidance and make rational predictions regardless of where they initially staked their flag. And for some who've staked their flag on the other side, it is entertaining to watch your cognitive dissonance of rooting for something just to be proven correct when it's the opposite of what you actually want. Fact is 12z guidance yesterday trended nicely. Fact is 12z EC ens median was clearly west of the mean. These things were identified, as was the sensitivity of the strength and timing of multiple pieces of energy to very different guidance solutions, as was the double-barreled fujiwara-like dance on the euro (well before this was part of Box's discussion). My and other's posts are all there. This may turn out to be a scraper (defined as Cape or less), and I'm fine with that. But let's watch how this unfolds. Having our best guidance trend into a big hit (defined as Bos metro or more) with ensemble support within 84 hours is not something to ignore. Best bet is scraper cape SE special 40%, whiff and a scrape to SE Cape 30%, something better than say last nights GFS where the .5 was cutting through the Cape 30%. I took a quick look at the data last night, the posts here and overall mood and probably went overboard, seemed like it was a foregone conclusion from the consensus of social media chatter, media, etc that this was going to be a historic event, potentially crippling. There are pros that are ALWAYS low up here that are gang busters this time. After I got a 15 yard penalty for trolling in excitement and re-assessed I'm much more conservative. The biggest mistake is I started using twitter to keep track of news on the lost plane and in doing so found myself following some weather posts there too....huge disaster. I was conservative before yesterday, those probabilities above seem realistic to me but a total whiff here is still not out of the question and probably on equal footing with a more region wide event as of right now. I have little confidence in the Euro this winter. DC gets a few inches on the nam and everyone north of southern nj is dry including the cape out to ack. Call me skeptical. Seems to be an exaggeration of the interaction between the two developing s/w's in the overall trough. It's not totally unreasonable Jerry that we see a more progressive system with an impulse firing in the lead that sadly isn't captured in time/at all. The Euro is precariously close to a much more negative solution IMO. It's really on the fence, we'll see how it all shakes out today. Going forward I put more/as much stock in the RGEM/GGEM than I would any other model. Certainly a heavy compromise with the Euro that comes out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I remember a storm like this maybe 5-6 years ago. There were doubts about the double barrel low and fujiwara effect and it happened exactly like that and all of SNE ended up with a good snowstorm. i wish I could remember what storm that wasJan 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not there and than it magically appears. f66.gif f72.gif The Euro has dual lobes, they're just oriented in a way that they're able to phase capture. The NAM isn't. Sans that capture at 84h on the 0z Euro it's mostly NBD imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Best bet is scraper cape SE special 40%, whiff and a scrape to SE Cape 30%, something better than say last nights GFS where the .5 was cutting through the Cape 30%. I took a quick look at the data last night, the posts here and overall mood and probably went overboard, seemed like it was a foregone conclusion from the consensus of social media chatter, media, etc that this was going to be a historic event, potentially crippling. There are pros that are ALWAYS low up here that are gang busters this time. After I got a 15 yard penalty for trolling in excitement and re-assessed I'm much more conservative. The biggest mistake is I started using twitter to keep track of news on the lost plane and in doing so found myself following some weather posts there too....huge disaster. I was conservative before yesterday, those probabilities above seem realistic to me but a total whiff here is still not out of the question and probably on equal footing with a more region wide event as of right now. I have little confidence in the Euro this winter. Seems to be an exaggeration of the interaction between the two developing s/w's in the overall trough. It's not totally unreasonable Jerry that we see a more progressive system with an impulse firing in the lead that sadly isn't captured in time/at all. The Euro is precariously close to a much more negative solution IMO. It's really on the fence, we'll see how it all shakes out today. Going forward I put more/as much stock in the RGEM/GGEM than I would any other model. Certainly a heavy compromise with the Euro that comes out today. Lol, you got twittered. I also have low confidence in last night's op Euro solution. But I read the HPC disco you posted, and they ended it by saying it is a low confidence forecast in general. When the Euro goes left and the rest go right, you know there is still movement that will occur on probably all of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 BOX has probabilistic maps out. Based on their 50% the forecast would be for 6" for Boston metro and 12" on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 if this ends up being a massive hit for the cape and not much for here im taking the drive.. after being in florida yesterday and now being back home today it feels damn cold out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The Euro has dual lobes, they're just oriented in a way that they're able to phase capture. The NAM isn't. Sans that capture at 84h on the 0z Euro it's mostly NBD imo.Euro mid level features are at or near the BM, what do you mean dual lobes? Surface pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro mid level features are at or near the BM, what do you mean dual lobes? Surface pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro has stacked 8 h 7h emerging near DC traveling to BM with SLP slightly tilted. I dont know where the dual lobes idea originates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro has stacked 8 h 7h emerging near DC traveling to BM with SLP slightly tilted. I dont know where the dual lobes idea originates. Ginxy check it out on Wundermaps: has the 3hourly increments and you can see the 2 distinct surface lows with western most low near the BM, and then they do a fujiwara-like thing around each other thereafter before consolidating into one surface low. Box references this too: "European model (ecmwf) indicating a double low structure with western low tracking near the benchmark". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Can someone objectively dissect what Bob and Steve are talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 00z Euro 84h 23Mar14.JPGwhat is that hard to see on my phone, I watch ML features and not seeing dual lobes,if I am seeing that right the pressure field is elongated as occlusion occurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro mid level features are at or near the BM, what do you mean dual lobes? Surface pressure? Follow the bouncing balls on the Euro. At 60 or so hours 500mb jumbled vortmax(s) come off the SE coast and shoot straight up the coast in advance of the overall trough. They actually end up pinwheeling INTO eastern New England. As that lifts north a second impulse associated with the main energy comes off the Carolinas and screams towards the BM rotating east of the western lobe which is strong enough to pull it back west (similar to what the 6z NAM hinted at) and eventually they phase just to our east. There's this other misconception that the low forming well off Florida signals error. The Euro did the same thing. The low IS going to form in association with that 500mb/jet energy that is coming out of the deep, deep south. The models that get us good rely on the digging energy to sling/capture that up the coast, then phase/explosively deepen the entire situation near us. Last nights Euro run IMO relies on an extremely delicate and probably unlikely balance? The NAM changed at 12z because it focused more on a slightly earlier development off the SE coast with more energy at 500mb. As a result the digging s/w can exert less force on it, and it's able to sneak away. NAM outside of 48, forget it. Inside of 48 it's not that dissimilar from the Euro and others. It's just a really fine line. EDIT: Steve it's two distinct features at 500mb (one could argue three actually). They originate 750 miles apart in the development of this low. That's why there's a dual barrel surface low on the Euro. It's clearly, without question a multi-lobed vortmax in the overall trough structure. Without blocking this has been the issue many, many times this winter. Phasing becomes difficult because there's nothing upstream to rack the bowling balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 what is that hard to see on my phone, I watch ML features and not seeing dual lobes,if I am seeing that right the pressure field is elongated as occlusion occurs? Well yeah, this is what we do not know right now. It could be just the models struggling to show a defined slp center or there could actually be a dual centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 For what? Wind? No, it was the 3-7 day outlook and it mentioned the possibility of a storm for Tue/ Wed. That "outlook" is gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Follow the bouncing balls on the Euro. At 60 or so hours 500mb jumbled vortmax(s) come off the SE coast and shoot straight up the coast in advance of the overall trough. They actually end up pinwheeling INTO eastern New England. As that lifts north a second impulse associated with the main energy comes off the Carolinas and screams towards the BM rotating east of the western lobe which is strong enough to pull it back west (similar to what the 6z NAM hinted at) and eventually they phase just to our east. There's this other misconception that the low forming well off Florida signals error. The Euro did the same thing. The low IS going to form in association with that 500mb/jet energy that is coming out of the deep, deep south. The models that get us good rely on the digging energy to sling/capture that up the coast, then phase/explosively deepen the entire situation near us. Last nights Euro run IMO relies on an extremely delicate and probably unlikely balance? The NAM changed at 12z because it focused more on a slightly earlier development off the SE coast with more energy at 500mb. As a result the digging s/w can exert less force on it, and it's able to sneak away. NAM outside of 48, forget it. Inside of 48 it's not that dissimilar from the Euro and others. It's just a really fine line. EDIT: Steve it's two distinct features at 500mb (one could argue three actually). They originate 750 miles apart in the development of this low. That's why there's a dual barrel surface low on the Euro. It's clearly, without question a multi-lobed vortmax in the overall trough structure. Without blocking this has been the issue many, many times this winter. Phasing becomes difficult because there's nothing upstream to rack the bowling balls. Since I am the only one who mentioned it: It's not that the low off Fl cause by CF is an error...it's that the NAM's depiction of it was in error. All models have it, but none to the extent of the NAM. I stated this pretty clearly earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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