Chrisrotary12 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wow. Just read through from about noon yesterday. Seems like this thread has derailed quite a few times. Winter really going out with a bang in here. 00z suite was interesting last night. It seemed that all hope was being lost until the ECMWF came in and saved the day. The best part is that a handful of posters this morning are talking about *nice* trends overnight.......does this mean that we are just ignoring all other guidance except the Euro. The fact that everything else went east is to be ignored. While in the grand scheme of things the Euro is the superior model, why completely ignore the other guidance that has had a lot of time & a crap load of money put into it. Some usefulness can be found in looking at more than one deterministic solution. Personally I am rooting for the 12z Euro to move East and only brush the Cape. Not because I want it to be Spring, but because I want the emotion in the thread to take a 100 foot nosedive as if we were on the Superman Roller Coaster. That would be quite fun to read. From a forecasting standpoint, at this point in the game one still has to favor just a glancing blow from this system. Hard to ignore the fact that the Euro is lonely and the rest of the guidance in east. Unfortunately I will be working as the 12z suite rolls in. But keep an eye on the Euro ensemble and the number of members that close off near the BM. If this thing is to turn into something special, this is what we need. And looking at the spaghetti chart from last night it seems that approximately 10 (20%) of the members do this. If this number increases over the next two model runs.....then we may just have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Fwiw (not a lot) 9Z srefs have the 0.75 line from PSM-ORH-BDL-Brookhaven,li. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yesterday Taunton had a "hazardous weather outlook" posted for my county, to day it's gone. Not like that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Has the Cape ever had such a snow storm (as modeled( in late March? 3/29/84 was memorable because it had snow and a lot of wind out here. Not much accumulated as I recall. Great Point Lighthouse got undermined and blew over, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yesterday Taunton had a "hazardous weather outlook" posted for my county, to day it's gone. Not like that means anything. For what? Wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yea DIT...you really where balls to the basket from the get go.nice pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not biting on a big solution until at least tonight or tomorrow. Last nights runs weren't all that encouraging save for the euro. Its nice to have it on your side, but when its alone, its hard to buy completely. It has been overamped in this range multiple times this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Does anyone have the ecens mslp map like was posted yesterday? It's posted on another site, and there are still 3 members that are extremely SE, and now 4 more that are pretty far SE of the main cluster. The other 44 are pretty split between two camps separated by about 100 miles from NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 3/29/84 was memorable because it had snow and a lot of wind out here. Not much accumulated as I recall. Great Point Lighthouse got undermined and blew over, though. MQE gust to over 100mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Does anyone have the ecens mslp map like was posted yesterday? It's posted on another site, and there are still 3 members that are extremely SE, and now 4 more that are pretty far SE of the main cluster. The other 44 are pretty split between two camps separated by about 100 miles from NW to SE. To the naked eye, it also likes like spread as actually increased, although it's not exactly the same time as the 12z map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I was water boarded into changing my viewpoint under extreme duress and warning points. Sadly true story. 6z nam shows the nice nw hook for 6 hours Everyone talks about data sparse in the pacific, one of the toughest regions is Hudson's bay due north. It's almost as inaccessible. We will see on the euro extreme, but the 6z guidance across the board was very favorable. Tim kelly, most major boston mets, jb, dt, and almost everyone else believes this is a major event for at least the cape. I know. And the water boarders are peeing on last night's excitement because they weren't there or they've publicly staked their flag on the other side. I don't think a single poster has spiked the football on a big event. Even the new posters realize this is still way too far out. I wish people could just objectively read the guidance and make rational predictions regardless of where they initially staked their flag. And for some who've staked their flag on the other side, it is entertaining to watch your cognitive dissonance of rooting for something just to be proven correct when it's the opposite of what you actually want. Fact is 12z guidance yesterday trended nicely. Fact is 12z EC ens median was clearly west of the mean. These things were identified, as was the sensitivity of the strength and timing of multiple pieces of energy to very different guidance solutions, as was the double-barreled fujiwara-like dance on the euro (well before this was part of Box's discussion). My and other's posts are all there. This may turn out to be a scraper (defined as Cape or less), and I'm fine with that. But let's watch how this unfolds. Having our best guidance trend into a big hit (defined as Bos metro or more) with ensemble support within 84 hours is not something to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I know. And the water boarders are peeing on last night's excitement because they weren't there or they've publicly staked their flag on the other side. I don't think a single poster has spiked the football on a big event. Even the new posters realize this is still way too far out. I wish people could just objectively read the guidance and make rational predictions regardless of where they initially staked their flag. And for some who've staked their flag on the other side, it is entertaining to watch your cognitive dissonance of rooting for something just to be proven correct when it's the opposite of what you actually want. Fact is 12z guidance yesterday trended nicely. Fact is 12z EC ens median was clearly west of the mean. These things were identified, as was the sensitivity of the strength and timing of multiple pieces of energy to very different guidance solutions, as was the double-barreled fujiwara-like dance on the euro (well before this was part of Box's discussion). My and other's posts are all there. This may turn out to be a scraper (defined as Cape or less), and I'm fine with that. But let's watch how this unfolds. Having our best guidance trend into a big hit (defined as Bos metro or more) with ensemble support within 84 hours is not something to ignore. Not to mention, E Mass tends to do alright in scrapers (cough Ray cough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 SREF plumes show 10 inches for Boston http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140323&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BOS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.0368024448376&mLON=-71.598316796875&mTYP=roadmap 8-9 inches for Nantucket. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140323&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ACK&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.0368024448376&mLON=-71.598316796875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I apologize in advance if this isn't allowed. I don't even know where it originates from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 MQE gust to over 100mph. Yeah, I'm not sure what our high gust was but I was on my houseboat in the harbor and it seemed to be near hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I apologize in advance if this isn't allowed. I don't even know where it originates from. hr 84 or 90 would probably be a little different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I apologize in advance if this isn't allowed. I don't even know where it originates from. Almost two camps. Some just NW of the mean center and another SE of the mean center based on clustering, Typical western and eastern outliers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy 11m If the Euro is correct, 1-2' for eastern New England assoc. w/ Wednesday's potential historic storm. 10" in just 6-hr pic.twitter.com/aGfP18q8mp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Setting the table is a day of -20 departures for maximum temps tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I can't remember where I saw it but, some mets had '84 as an analog for this storm coming up. Anyone have archived maps leading up to and including the 3/29/84 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I had a gut for that one too FTW I'm not sure I do for our area, but I like us for measurable based on current guidance. Sometimes gut feelings are based on emotional factors, but sometimes there is some factual evidence that the subconscious picks up on that the conscious mind doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I apologize in advance if this isn't allowed. I don't even know where it originates from. 2 distinct lines apparent, just to NW of mean and just to SE of mean. In addition to uncertainty, this may be signaling the double-barrel low (the initial low center farther southeast and the subsequent low center induced by the strong vorticity later on). I imagine if you look at a later timepoint, there may be a shift in weight from the southeast camp to the northwest camp similar to what was depicted on the 0z EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 2 distinct lines apparent, just to NW of mean and just to SE of mean. In addition to uncertainty, this may be signaling the double-barrel low (the initial low center farther southeast and the subsequent low center induced by the strong vorticity later on). I imagine if you look at a later timepoint, there may be a shift in weight from the southeast camp to the northwest camp similar to what was depicted on the 0z EC. Yeah probably, timing differences wrt the capture maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Can this continue to come more west and potentially cause p type issues on the cape? I would hate to see them have to deal with all that snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Can this continue to come more west and potentially cause p type issues on the cape? I would hate to see them have to deal with all that snow. It appears low probability at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 At this point, I think we have to assume there will be some level of real convective feedback, just a matter of how much and how well the models handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 WHY ARE YOU CUTTING TREES DOWN!?!? Winter's coming up. Much to do. SREF plumes show 10 inches for Boston http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140323&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BOS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.0368024448376&mLON=-71.598316796875&mTYP=roadmap 8-9 inches for Nantucket. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140323&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ACK&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.0368024448376&mLON=-71.598316796875&mTYP=roadmap It's showing 4" for Albany--aint' goinna happen. 29.7/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The nam moved the low center 500 miles east in 6 hours...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The Nam hits SNJ and Philly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 DC gets a few inches on the nam and everyone north of southern nj is dry including the cape out to ack. Call me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.