dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If you're looking to put a chink in history's armor, its disconcerting to see inverted troughs, and/or double barrel lows imo. I hope it all works out, and I'm wrong, believe me. I would feel good on the cape, though. Right now their and DE Maine sit in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some nice hits on the 06z GEFS. The double low structure could very easily be real. Strong height falls due to impressive vorticity advection are the big culprit. The baroclinic zone is also close to the EC as well so the second, further west low makes sense as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well it looks like we're losing this one..tough pill to swallow Some call it bad luck. I call it an atmospheric pattern not conducive to delivering snow to our general region. I think everyone would take Morch 2012 where summer started over a top 5 cold , snowless March We've seen this how many times the last 5 weeks? Fool me once shame on me.. Fool me twice, roll of the dice,, fool me thrice .. My weenies on ice When the atmosphere wants it to not snow..it will find every way for that to happen. In this instance persistence is the way to go until proven otherwise yea DIT...you really where balls to the basket from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yea DIT...you really where balls to the basket from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I started the thread son. I've been balls all in the basket from the get go. It's coming its ok to be wrong at times, if you're not honest with yourself....who can you be honest to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Very interesting, the fun continues to 12z at least. Shouldn't tip be writing a short essay for us about now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Phil must be chomping at the bit. I don't think the eastern folks need worry. I think we have the western goal post and it ain't pretty out west. Like the MArch 7-8 storm last year. Feet to our East C-2" here. This has looked like SE MA from the start. We'll know by tonight but a significant NW move seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We didn't flinch Jerry, we didn't flinch.I was water boarded into changing my viewpoint under extreme duress and warning points. Sadly true story.6z nam shows the nice nw hook for 6 hours Everyone talks about data sparse in the pacific, one of the toughest regions is Hudson's bay due north. It's almost as inaccessible. We will see on the euro extreme, but the 6z guidance across the board was very favorable. Tim kelly, most major boston mets, jb, dt, and almost everyone else believes this is a major event for at least the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some nice hits on the 06z GEFS. The double low structure could very easily be real. Strong height falls due to impressive vorticity advection are the big culprit. The baroclinic zone is also close to the EC as well so the second, further west low makes sense as well. I remember a storm like this maybe 5-6 years ago. There were doubts about the double barrel low and fujiwara effect and it happened exactly like that and all of SNE ended up with a good snowstorm. i wish I could remember what storm that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Like the MArch 7-8 storm last year. Feet to our East C-2" here. This has looked like SE MA from the start. We'll know by tonight but a significant NW move seems unlikely. that program feels like its been in syndication forever....were less than a hundred miles away but it might as well be a million.....even in the 80s the cape scored on occasion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't think anything has really been set with this one yet, Right now it favors eastern areas and may just be those in the end , I do think after today's runs, Your probably going to see where that boundary ends up , But I don't think we are their yet, All the pieces should now be on the field with today's model runs Ah, Grasshoppa--you have learned patience well. Very interesting, the fun continues to 12z at least. Shouldn't tip be writing a short essay for us about now? LOL. A really good thing about being out here for this is I have no expectations that it will have much impact out here. I get to glance at the models, read a few posts and get back to cutting down another tree. When it comes, it comes. 29.4/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ah, Grasshoppa--you have learned patience well. LOL. A really good thing about being out here for this is I have no expectations that it will have much impact out here. I get to glance at the models, read a few posts and get back to cutting down another tree. When it comes, it comes. 29.4/14 Noooooorrrrmm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ncep diag is interesting. Mainly ignores the 0z euro in favor of the 12z and means of all others track east of BM. Should still be at least a short period of NNw movement IMO http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So, am I reading this right, and PVD basically gets <6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So, am I reading this right, and PVD basically gets <6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So, am I reading this right, and PVD basically gets <6"? waaaaaaay to early to even delve into accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You can't ignore a model that's not incorporated into the grids yet. Timestamp. Read the text they discuss the 0z euro but go on to say they favor the mean cluster which is mainly east of the BM. Our local office indicates the euro would be an epic snowstorm for eastern New England and mentions the tuck. This has the potential to be a history smashing event for at least some. Let's see how this rolls today. To me none of the solutions are off the table, nor is a tuck much further nw still. I think KTAN has said pretty much the same thing aside of a further nw solution. As it stands right now it's a very favorable if not improbable situation for at least coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Read the text they discuss the 0z euro but go on to say they favor the mean cluster which is mainly east of the BM. Our local office indicates the euro would be an epic snowstorm for eastern New England and mentions the tuck. This has the potential to be a history smashing event for at least some. Let's see how this rolls today. To me none of the solutions are off the table, nor is a tuck much further nw still. I think KTAN has said pretty much the same thing aside of a further nw solution. As it stands right now it's a very favorable if not improbable situation for at least coastal areas. Boils down to continuity imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Read the text they discuss the 0z euro but go on to say they favor the mean cluster which is mainly east of the BM. Our local office indicates the euro would be an epic snowstorm for eastern New England and mentions the tuck. This has the potential to be a history smashing event for at least some. Let's see how this rolls today. To me none of the solutions are off the table, nor is a tuck much further nw still. I think KTAN has said pretty much the same thing aside of a further nw solution. As it stands right now it's a very favorable if not improbable situation for at least coastal areas. Yeah I missed that snippet, all 5 words of it. The model is doing a double structure for a reason. Is it correct? Well maybe and maybe not, but I don't think it's an error based on reasons stated prior. The euro ensemble was pretty nice for BOS on south, better than 12z. Nothing you can really do but sit back and let things play out. Hopefully we get another nudge at 12z, but I also envision some more model waffling. The emotional posts should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah I missed that snippet, all 5 words of it. The model is doing a double structure for a reason. Is it correct? Well maybe and maybe not, but I don't think it's an error based on reasons stated prior. The euro ensemble was pretty nice for BOS on south, better than 12z. Nothing you can really do but sit back and let things play out. Hopefully we get another nudge at 12z, but I also envision some more model waffling. The emotional posts should be fun to watch unfold.Yeah interesting how they handled it, the disco arrived at the normal offset for full euro digestion. Surprised they didn't elaborate more. Bob continuity would place this is a historic event for James and Phil to ackwaves. Me to you and Scott are the dividing line of uncertainty on historic like many other events this winter. Should be good OE too. Seasonal shift should come into play too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah interesting how they handled it, the disco arrived at the normal offset for full euro digestion. Surprised they didn't elaborate more. Bob continuity would place this is a historic event for James and Phil to ackwaves. Me to you and Scott are the dividing line of uncertainty on historic like many other events this winter. Should be good OE too. Seasonal shift should come into play too. You should get snow out of this. High confidence in some falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah interesting how they handled it, the disco arrived at the normal offset for full euro digestion. Surprised they didn't elaborate more. Bob continuity would place this is a historic event for James and Phil to ackwaves. Me to you and Scott are the dividing line of uncertainty on historic like many other events this winter. Should be good OE too. Seasonal shift should come into play too. CC and the Islands I'd place at a high end prob for warning snows 6"+. >80%. I'd place SE MA at >50% for that. Just see what 12z does today. Hard to ignore 00z Euro and it's Ensm. but I certainly would not just go all in on them either. Really complex interaction with a lot of pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah I missed that snippet, all 5 words of it. The model is doing a double structure for a reason. Is it correct? Well maybe and maybe not, but I don't think it's an error based on reasons stated prior. The euro ensemble was pretty nice for BOS on south, better than 12z. Nothing you can really do but sit back and let things play out. Hopefully we get another nudge at 12z, but I also envision some more model waffling. The emotional posts should be fun to watch unfold. Look back to the first page of the storm obs thread for 3/8/13. I think even you called it a fail of a storm, as it was starting. That says a lot to me about the fallibility of our model guidance even at this age. The models have done a great job consistently showing this threat. They will continue to struggle with the nuances IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Has the Cape ever had such a snow storm (as modeled( in late March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Bob and Messenger, agree entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Look back to the first page of the storm obs thread for 3/8/13. I think even you called it a fail of a storm, as it was starting. That says a lot to me about the fallibility of our model guidance even at this age. The models have done a great job consistently showing this threat. They will continue to struggle with the nuances IMO. I'm not sure I called it a fail as it was starting, but that was a fail for the gfs. I was uncertain how Boston would do, but the day before, started to getting more interesting for me. This is a different beast with different dynamics for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm not sure I called it a fail as it was starting, but that was a fail for the gfs. I was uncertain how Boston would do, but the day before, started to getting more interesting for me. This is a different beast with different dynamics for sure. Already an obs thread for this fail. Don't be modest :-p Probably was started too early, so yeah that was like a day before. Still the point being, it's not unheard of for models to fail within 24-48 hours in complex situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Don't be modest :-p Probably was started too early, so yeah that was like a day before. Still the point being, it's not unheard of for models to fail within 24-48 hours in complex situations. Ok almost 2 days before lol. Not when it was starting. 2 days before I had no confidence for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Has the Cape ever had such a snow storm (as modeled( in late March? Not that I recall. This would be historic and unprecedented which is why it remains dubious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ok almost 2 days before lol. Not when it was starting. 2 days before I had no confidence for Boston. Not trying to single you out BTW, Will said the exact same thing a few posts later. Fwiw Kevin said it would be epic lol. The models could not handle the fujiwara dynamics even as it was occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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