40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My guess is the Euro is going to continue eastward gradually, its been slow to react to an ultimate solution all winter, generally taking 2-3 runs to do so...in many locales down the coast the Euro was further east this run than it was at 12Z...I think in the end this is mainly a CC snow event and its highly possible even that won't materialize.Agree. Euro has done this before. Folks never learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Agree. Euro has done this before. Folks never learnStill hard to ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You guys would definitely remember better than me but it seems BOS getting destroyed without either NYC or DCA or both getting hit is quite rare, its not too unusual for ERN LI/CC to get slammed while BOS/DCA/PHL/NYC get missed but I do not recall an event offhand that hit BOS hard and missed all of the other 3 although I'm sure its happened at some point....I guess 4/1/97 can sort of count but in essence everyone around NYC got slammed in that event, NYC itself was a blackhole.Dec 1981 is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Still hard to ignoreIgnoring and not biting are diffferent. This is mainly a se MA and CC deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ec ens mean is just outside of the BM. 1.50" to the Cape, 1.00" near BOS, 0.50" to CON/MHT. 0.25" to near MPV. Sounds 06z GFS-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ignoring peoples comments about me being new guy. Does not matter. ANyways GEFS ensembles look farther East this morning. Trying to figure out what they are seeing that I dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Still hard to ignore The thing I question is it's evolution of how it delivers up here , It basically hits New England while the rest of the east coast sees next to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 BOX AM AFD .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTS SE NEW ENG LATE TUE INTO WED * HIGH PRES AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY * MILDER WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS FRI INTO SAT OVERVIEW... THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT CAMPS REGARDING THE TRACK OF EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING OCEAN STORM TUE NIGHT. GFS/GGEM/UKMET ARE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST WITH CENTER PASSING MORE THAN 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK WITH GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATING A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE WITH WESTERN LOW TRACKING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT GFS HAS SUPPORT OF MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO CAPE/ISLANDS. THE ECMWF...WHILE AN EXTREME SOLUTION AND A LOWER PROBABILITY...WOULD BE AN EPIC SNOWSTORM/BLIZZARD FOR EASTERN NEW ENG. VERY COMPLEX INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND HOW QUICKLY THIS PHASING OCCURS WILL DETERMINE IF STORM CAN GET PULLED BACK TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK. STILL CANT DISCOUNT ANY MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF IMPACT FOR SNE. CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR STORM IS HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE TO THE WEST. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF TRACK...ALL MODELS SHOW BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT WITH 12 HR PRES FALLS AROUND 30 MB AND 18 HR PRES FALLS NEAR 40 MB WHICH IS QUITE REMARKABLE. MODELS HAVE SUB 970 MB LOW CROSSING OUR LATITUDE WED MORNING AND SUB 960 MB APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ignoring peoples comments about me being new guy. Does not matter. ANyways GEFS ensembles look farther East this morning. Trying to figure out what they are seeing that I dont.Nick, there is nothing wrong with posting a QPF map on a meteorology forum. Brian is one of the founders of the board....he is well aware of the perils of reading too much into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The thing I question is it's evolution of how it delivers up here , It basically hits New England while the rest of the east coast sees next to nothingRight. Not common but as mentioned earlier it happens now and then. Still a Cape/SE Mass show for the most part. And E Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nick, there is nothing wrong with posting a QPF map on a meteorology forum. Brian is one of the founders of the board....he is well aware of the perils of reading too much into it. Us QPF Queens like data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We still have to see how this progresses through the day because the Euro with the two low solution (possibly real given strong vort advection and height falls) will cause some issues. If the low to the east is dominant it's not much past the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Right. Not common but as mentioned earlier it happens now and then. Still a Cape/SE Mass show for the most part. And E Maine Yeah the gradient is pretty tight on the QPF field, And I am afraid that if far western areas were to get a decent hit out of this one, Some of the folks in the far eastern areas may not like the results Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We still have to see how this progresses through the day because the Euro with the two low solution (possibly real given strong vort advection and height falls) will cause some issues. If the low to the east is dominant it's not much past the canal.Caution. Be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Anyways, I found the two low solution to be interesting as well. Makes sense, like you said CoastalWx, and I do think the western low will become more dominant. however, how the ECMWF and GFS handle it is a different story all-together. I think the 6z GFS caught on to a portion of that idea, pulling the primary low back by about 40 miles to the west from previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 enough. stick to discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 I just had a gut feeling about this one from day 1. It just seemed like all the pieces were there for a big hit regionwide and we're now starting to see it all come together for us in the model world. very impressive overnight trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I just had a gut feeling about this one from day 1. It just seemed like all the pieces were there for a big hit regionwide and we're now starting to see it all come together for us in the model world. very impressive overnight trends I would still like to see those precipitation fields propegate more west, even if it means slightly reduces totals. Everyone should be in on this action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 BOX AM AFD Phil must be chomping at the bit. Yeah the gradient is pretty tight on the QPF field, And I am afraid that if far western areas were to get a decent hit out of this one, Some of the folks in the far eastern areas may not like the results Sent from my iPhone I don't think the eastern folks need worry. I think we have the western goal post and it ain't pretty out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Very nice shift, lets see what todays runs do to see if its a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I just had a gut feeling about this one from day 1. It just seemed like all the pieces were there for a big hit regionwide and we're now starting to see it all come together for us in the model world. very impressive overnight trends ????? There was no trend. There were conflicting shifts with the EC going one way and everything else going the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I just had a gut feeling about this one from day 1. It just seemed like all the pieces were there for a big hit regionwide and we're now starting to see it all come together for us in the model world. very impressive overnight trends Dood stop. You checked out on day 1. Then on day 2 you made a complete 180 and went all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Dood stop. You checked out on day 1. Then on day 2 you made a complete 180 and went all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We're a dysfunctional family and newbies are always welcomed in. Let's just drop it and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Phil must be chomping at the bit. I don't think the eastern folks need worry. I think we have the western goal post and it ain't pretty out west. I don't think anything has really been set with this one yet, Right now it favors eastern areas and may just be those in the end , I do think after today's runs, Your probably going to see where that boundary ends up , But I don't think we are their yet, All the pieces should now be on the field with today's model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The way the euro is showing that double low situation... If it *is* real, do we have any information suggesting which model would tend to handle it better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't think anything has really been set with this one yet, Right now it favors eastern areas and may just be those in the end , I do think after today's runs, Your probably going to see where that boundary ends up , But I don't think we are their yet, All the pieces should now be on the field with today's model runs Yeah, agreed. Energy just now making its way onshore. Plenty of data left to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The way the euro is showing that double low situation... If it *is* real, do we have any information suggesting which model would tend to handle it better? If you're looking to put a chink in history's armor, its disconcerting to see inverted troughs, and/or double barrel lows imo. I hope it all works out, and I'm wrong, believe me. I would feel good on the cape, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The way the euro is showing that double low situation... If it *is* real, do we have any information suggesting which model would tend to handle it better? Theres been some runs by other guidance showing the double low. It has legs i would think. As to who would handle it better, interesting question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Dood stop. You checked out on day 1. Then on day 2 you made a complete 180 and went all in. I started the thread son. I've been balls all in the basket from the get go. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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