SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm not ready to ride the euro. I really need to see other guidance do this. Euro has been prone to over amplification. Would I like a blizzard, sure. See you in 12h. My guess is the Euro is going to continue eastward gradually, its been slow to react to an ultimate solution all winter, generally taking 2-3 runs to do so...in many locales down the coast the Euro was further east this run than it was at 12Z...I think in the end this is mainly a CC snow event and its highly possible even that won't materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My guess is the Euro is going to continue eastward gradually, its been slow to react to an ultimate solution all winter, generally taking 2-3 runs to do so...in many locales down the coast the Euro was further east this run than it was at 12Z...I think in the end this is mainly a CC snow event and its highly possible even that won't materialize. This was a reaction in the other direction. And there are many instances of whiffs everywhere but New England up and down the coast in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My guess is the Euro is going to continue eastward gradually, its been slow to react to an ultimate solution all winter, generally taking 2-3 runs to do so...in many locales down the coast the Euro was further east this run than it was at 12Z...I think in the end this is mainly a CC snow event and its highly possible even that won't materialize. Definitely possible... I have a feeling this storm has some surprises up its sleeve though. We're still 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This was a reaction in the other direction. And there are many instances of whiffs everywhere but New England up and down the coast in history. You guys would definitely remember better than me but it seems BOS getting destroyed without either NYC or DCA or both getting hit is quite rare, its not too unusual for ERN LI/CC to get slammed while BOS/DCA/PHL/NYC get missed but I do not recall an event offhand that hit BOS hard and missed all of the other 3 although I'm sure its happened at some point....I guess 4/1/97 can sort of count but in essence everyone around NYC got slammed in that event, NYC itself was a blackhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You guys would definitely remember better than me but it seems BOS getting destroyed without either NYC or DCA or both getting hit is quite rare, its not too unusual for ERN LI/CC to get slammed while BOS/DCA/PHL/NYC get missed but I do not recall an event offhand that hit BOS hard and missed all of the other 3 although I'm sure its happened at some point....I guess 4/1/97 can sort of count but in essence everyone around NYC got slammed in that event, NYC itself was a blackhole. The great 100 hour storm in1969 gave BOS 26 and NYC under 4. 4/1/97 NYC? BOS 25. I think NYC had <6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My guess is the Euro is going to continue eastward gradually, its been slow to react to an ultimate solution all winter, generally taking 2-3 runs to do so...in many locales down the coast the Euro was further east this run than it was at 12Z...I think in the end this is mainly a CC snow event and its highly possible even that won't materialize. Continue eastward? But this was by far the most impacting run of the Euro on SNE. A further OTS track further down the coast yet bigger impact on SNE is possible with this N / even NNW trajectory as the low gets captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Continue eastward? But this was by far the most impacting run of the Euro on SNE. A further OTS track further down the coast yet bigger impact on SNE is possible with this N / even NNW trajectory as the low gets captured. Either this will be 1 big low, a norlun or 2 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You guys would definitely remember better than me but it seems BOS getting destroyed without either NYC or DCA or both getting hit is quite rare, its not too unusual for ERN LI/CC to get slammed while BOS/DCA/PHL/NYC get missed but I do not recall an event offhand that hit BOS hard and missed all of the other 3 although I'm sure its happened at some point....I guess 4/1/97 can sort of count but in essence everyone around NYC got slammed in that event, NYC itself was a blackhole. When you consider eastern li is west of BOS, you understand how it happens with regularity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A further OTS track further down the coast yet bigger impact on SNE is possible with this N / even NNW trajectory as the low gets captured. The NNW turn it wants to make is definitely interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The crazy thing: the SLP off the Carolinas at 18z 3/25 is approximately the same position as in the 12z run. Then, the low looks like it gets pulled apart into 2 lobes by 0z 3/26, and the closer to the coast lobe dominates though it maintains a double-barrel structure through at least 12z 3/26. You wonder if we're done trending... ie, if the balance between the 2 lobes doesn't shift even more to the lobe closer to the coast. Will we see an even more consolidated low closer to the coast? All in how much energy rounds the base of the trough and the timing of the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My guess is the Euro is going to continue eastward gradually, its been slow to react to an ultimate solution all winter, generally taking 2-3 runs to do so...in many locales down the coast the Euro was further east this run than it was at 12Z...I think in the end this is mainly a CC snow event and its highly possible even that won't materialize. Continue eastward? But this was by far the most impacting run of the Euro on SNE. A further OTS track further down the coast yet bigger impact on SNE is possible with this N / even NNW trajectory as the low gets captured. haha, "does he even Euro"? Look at March 6, 2013, dont think NYC saw much out of that, metro BOS had close to 30" in some places. Everyone was on the out to sea train then too. Riding the EC myself, when it starts slowly trending west for multiple runs and starts to get inside D4, I pay attention. Tossing everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It was worth sneaking a peak on the bathroom break, The Euro is what we expected to see with some of the other models earlier, Lets see if others jump on, The Ukie may score one here as it has been the furthest west of all guidance and now it seems the Euro went to its side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It was worth sneaking a peak on the bathroom break, The Euro is what we expected to see with some of the other models earlier, Lets see if others jump on, The Ukie may score one here as it has been the furthest west of all guidance and now it seems the Euro went to its side Ukie went east though with the latest 00z run, lol... Model Mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 haha, "does he even Euro"? Look at March 6, 2013, dont think NYC saw much out of that, metro BOS had close to 30" in some places. Everyone was on the out to sea train then too. Riding the EC myself, when it starts slowly trending west for multiple runs and starts to get inside D4, I pay attention. Tossing everything else. 2/8/13? NYC had about a foot, much of Suffolk County had up to 24-30+". It wasn't a miss for us by any means. It was one of Long Island's biggest snow events in history-Upton's biggest ever at 30.9" I believe. If you mean the early March storm, it was a bigger deal up by you but it was still a significant event for most down here, a half a foot or more in many places even in E NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Interestingly, on closer look, EC has 2 lows that actually fujiwara between 81-93 hours until they consolidate into one low. We'll see how this double-barrel solution evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ukie went east though with the latest 00z run, lol... Model Mayhem. Still was pretty far west of everything else, Today should give some answers if this was a blip or start of a west shift Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 In all serious, we're due in this Nina-like very progressive season for a major New England centered event, so maybe this is it. However, the Euro being the only model to really do this capture and NNW movement too late for anyone else has to give some pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wow, shocking turn of events reading this thread. Euro/ukie combo isn't the worst of teams and we've seen situations before where euro and GFS wildly disagree down to the very end, but idk... Like box said, give it a day, this has been an inherently low confidence situation regardless of consistent modeling. I'd honestly say it's a hell of a lot more meaningful for your first really big hit on the models to come at this time frame rather than 36 hours ago, and if there's one model you'd want showing it, it's the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The real question is, why am I already seeing snowfall maps out of this? So much is going to change that qpf/snowfall accumulation maps mean NOTHING. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Updated the track probabilities this morning. you can clearly see the model trends weighing more West in their track ideas. Not a huge margin of shift thanks to some east shifts on a few models, but I expect those to work themselves out the next few runs. The link is listed below: 3/23/14 03z Updated Track Probabilities for 3/26/14 storm Still a good indication that many areas in SNE will be happy ( if you are a snow lover). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 06z GFS is better. Destroys the cape, .5" from Newburyport to Old Saybrook. .25" land from most of Maine, NH, southern 1/2 VT, and the rest of Mass and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't see any posts about the EC ensembles.....any word on those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't see any posts about the EC ensembles.....any word on those? Wish I had them at the moment for you. But Nice to see the GFS finally putting it west again. Certainly think itll begin to line up with ECMWF by 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ec ens mean is just outside of the BM. 1.50" to the Cape, 1.00" near BOS, 0.50" to CON/MHT. 0.25" to near MPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ec ens mean is just outside of the BM. 1.50" to the Cape, 1.00" near BOS, 0.50" to CON/MHT. 0.25" to near MPV. Dangerous to mention qpf this far out, but doesnt sound bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Dangerous to mention qpf this far out, but doesnt sound bad at all.No offense, but we're well versed here. We don't need lessons about QPF. You're the new guy...not us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Man to sit back and not post and watch all the emotions is quite interesting. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Man to sit back and not post and watch all the emotions is quite interesting. Lol. I call it riding the model coaster, Plenty of ups and downs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I call it riding the model coaster, Plenty of ups and downsSometimes some fall out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sometimes some fall out. And we had a few, I thought I was at a funeral before the Euro came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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