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Damage In Tolland

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Having not seen it I'm guessing a lot of this has to do with the serious inv trough feature it was advertising at 12z. I heard double barreled. Oh well back to sleep.

 

Yeah, the low actually gets pretty far east, but the heavy precip extends well west of it.  

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Yeah, the low actually gets pretty far east, but the heavy precip extends well west of it.

Haven't really seen that look on anything else...definitely not on the GFS and maybe only a hint of it on the GGEM. The Euro is either off its azz or tomorrow is going to be a fun day. Who knows.
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Actually, the low comes in close but opens up at occlusion and then slides east after the damage is done. Hence the stretched up appearance.

Jerry, the Euro develops 2 lows which is possible in this situation. It will be interesting to see which model ends up correct. The other models are all out to sea.

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Succinctly, euro verbatim would verify my 1-2 foot metro Boston call from earlier today.

 

post-3106-0-47653500-1395556448_thumb.pn

 

What got it done? It looks like more shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough --> an earlier capture / trough goes negative more quickly.

 

As I said again and again all day based on correlating how the shortwave energy ejects with track, subtle nuances with this system will make a huge difference in impact.

 

And despite all the 18z/0z runs, we didn't flinch. I was here April 97, and the ensembles today had the feel it could trend that way.

 

Still a ways to go, but this is a hugely promising run tonight!

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