RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 didn't catch that, sorry lol. well, you kinda have to know how close of a relationship he has with debbie with this system in order to catch it. but yea, if euro doesnt throw us a carrot tonight, we need alot of help tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No major changes from GFS vs. 18z, but somewhat less precip across the interior. Similar SFC low track.There is going to continue to be less precip across the interior because it's smoothed out what will be a sharp cut off. It's resolving that.....and yes, that iscalled a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Plenty of time? The storm will be forming and beginning to come north in like 60 hours. That is not plenty of time, this one is close to over for a big powerful storm to affect land. 0z gfs was significantly better than the 18z. Still plenty of time left for a 100-150 mile shift nw. Despite the talk of 10+ down here and probabilities of blizzard conditions mixing is still a legitimate concern. Goal posts may be narrowing but so far not much. Ggem may be destined to go a big seaward from earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Folks keep carrying on about how we "have no clue at this range".....guess what, sometimes we do. The models have been pinned on a scraper for days. yea its been a scraper for days now. but still doesnt mean slight shifts cant happen inside 72hrs. i feel like shifts against us has happen quite often recently lol.....one of these times it will work for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yea its been a scraper for days now. but still doesnt mean slight shifts can happen inside 72hrs. i feel like shifts against us has happen quite often recently lol.....one of these times it will work for us.Theoretically, but this season is skunked. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Theoretically, but this season is skunked. JMHO. Agree, I think it's more likely this ends up further east and a complete whiff than a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 UKmet may do better for you guys, but it would have to be after 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest precip ending 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 meh bring on spring, talk to you guys in October.. unless we get a cane. Enjoy your spring/summer everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 UKmet may do better for you guys, but it would have to be after 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest precip ending 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest might have a shot with this UKmet 700mb RH/winds http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ggem big seaward shift from earlier runs. Hopping off the blizzard train at the next station, back on the scrapper train. Got roped in by all the talk, looked so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wow yeah ggem is way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Running out of time. 12Z tomorrow is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wow yeah ggem is way east It's only about 125 miles east. Some of the features involved are still in data poor regions. Hopefully we will get better focus Sunday. Still a tempest out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 meh bring on spring, talk to you guys in October.. unless we get a cane. Enjoy your spring/summer everyone. See ya tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Our blizzard is in a modeling sparse region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The 0z model runs are looking pretty ominous so far. Damn. Was hoping you guys would get the snow. I just want the wind. Still time to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Running out of time. 12Z tomorrow is critical. I'd say by 0z tomorrow, and remember it is the GGEM, I'd take the GFS and EURO over it anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 FWIW, the Euro ENS mean from 12z was not as robust as the OP for most areas and that's factoring in some NW amped outliers. In fact, at least a quarter of the 12z members were much like the 00z suite so far with a further east solution. Laugh at the NAM, but when it's weak/southeast for a coastal low near the end of its cycle, that does not excite me in terms of the potential for a big hit. I'd lean heavily upon a low impact event inland. Southeast of I-95 could make out okay, but we'll see if the 00z shift turns into more of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Our blizzard is in a modeling sparse region. It is though. Couple of the features are in weak areas could be a major factor. I'm trying to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The northern s/w is just coming out of the Arctic now, but I think the plug is starting to get pulled for optimism outside of I-95 and SE MA. Looks like my gut might have been wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It is though. Couple of the features are in weak areas could be a major factor. I'm trying to be optimistic.Lets grab a raft, some candles, and a weegie board, and hold a seeance at the benchmark to ressurect this heavy, heavy data-sparse spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The northern s/w is just coming out of the Arctic now, but I think the plug is starting to get pulled for optimism outside of I-95 and SE MA. Looks like my gut might have been wrong.i'll give it until the 12z euro tmrw, but yeah this isn't looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Lets grab a raft, some candles, and a weegie board, and hold a seeance at the benchmark to ressurect this heavy, heavy data-sparse spirit.Could be feedback too or surface track flux due to seasonal variations.One thing we haven't learned this winter is outside of 72 hours is a jungle. This still has time but those were some ugly shifts at 0z. The other regions threads seem to have a handle on it or are in total chaos I'm not sure. And where are all the new people coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Objective reasons for hope, at least based in model output, are thinning at 0z. But I will say this: models looked increasingly promising thru 12z today, and then took a step back at 18z/0z (haven't seen Euro yet...). But I do believe the nuances discussed before will not be ironed out until at least 12z-0z tomorrow. Unlike previous systems that missed because of obviously dominant suppression, this seems to be a matter of timing of phasing of multiple pieces of energy. The critical pieces of energy are still in the Arctic Circle. Writing this off is premature this far out. We've seen just today that subtle changes in the interactions / timing off the Carolinas have a huge impact on the track. And we've seen countless times a storm track shift 100 miles just in the last 24 hours. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Objective reasons for hope, at least based in model output, are thinning at 0z. But I will say this: models looked increasingly promising thru 12z today, and then took a step back at 18z/0z (haven't seen Euro yet...). But I do believe the nuances discussed before will not be ironed out until at least 12z-0z tomorrow. Unlike previous systems that missed because of obviously dominant suppression, this seems to be a matter of timing of phasing of multiple pieces of energy. The critical pieces of energy are still in the Arctic Circle. Writing this off is premature this far out. We've seen just today that subtle changes in the interactions / timing off the Carolinas have a huge impact on the track. And we've seen countless times a storm track shift 100 miles just in the last 24 hours. Plenty of time. It's following the predominant seasonal trend. When we have cold and decent high position we have a progressive pattern that either only allows for enough amplification to affect se areas, or it misses. This one was being given more room by some models as they dumped the mid level feature near Hudson's bay further southwest so it could interact with the system zooming across the TN valley. Models have repeatedly had some variation of that general layout in every major fictitious miss 96+ which is why there's largely been no point bothering until we crossed this threshold tonight. We have seen systems tail north of us in time favoring nNe in this pattern, and systems tail further away and favor those to our south in this pattern. No different this time, but let's see where this ends up Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Hoping for some westward movement on runs later today but not optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's following the predominant seasonal trend. When we have cold and decent high position we have a progressive pattern that either only allows for enough amplification to affect se areas, or it misses. This one was being given more room by some models as they dumped the mid level feature near Hudson's bay further southwest so it could interact with the system zooming across the TN valley. Models have repeatedly had some variation of that general layout in every major fictitious miss 96+ which is why there's largely been no point bothering until we crossed this threshold tonight. We have seen systems tail north of us in time favoring nNe in this pattern, and systems tail further away and favor those to our south in this pattern. No different this time, but let's see where this ends up Sunday. True though hard to say how generalizable seasonal tendencies are. The trough here seems sharper and goes negative, just a little late. The shortwave energy we're dealing with is stronger. The ensuing SLP is obviously deeper than any this season. Poring over the 4 GFS runs today, tonight's 0z run actually is not so bad with the large scale features. The low over the Hudson Bay is not so different in placement. Ridging out west is better than 18z. If anything, the energy rounding the trough base is a little weaker at 0z, and maybe that's why cyclogenesis happens a little later and less intensely. Maybe I'm just reaching. On the other hand, that 12z Euro ensemble median gives me pause in reaching for the nails to this coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 EURO IS WAY WEST!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro is a huge blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 WAKE UP naysayers, EURO IS HUGE HIT!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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