Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nothing to get excited about other then watching the model shiftspeeps making predictions today like they somehow know, Euro Ens individual members show the uncertainty, how they know definitely, is beyond me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, I'm glad you guys are emotional Goliaths because I'm not expecting much and would still be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 well they would certainly be in better agreement than with last feb blizz or frankly any other event this winter plus it be the first lr storm in ages that actually became a storm, not a phantom like so many other times recently I guess I see where you are coming from. With respect to recent performance by some or all models at some point in time. They haven't usually agreed so well with each other at the lead time that they did with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, I'm glad you guys are emotional Goliaths because I'm not expecting much and would still be disappointed. I get what you mean. I don't have any expectations at all given the delicacy of the situation and how much we need to go right, but even with that said, a miss on such a powerful storm so close would blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It just blows dead rats to complely whiff on the last 6 weeks of a season that were ripe with potential, and replete with cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 peeps making predictions today like they somehow know, Euro Ens individual members show the uncertainty, how they know definitely, is beyond me Yeah, I really have no idea what may unfold, All i know is todays models for the most part were positive shifts, We will see what tonight and 12z tomorrow bring, Ithink we will have a good idea by 0z tomorrow night what is going to happen with this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, I'm glad you guys are emotional Goliaths because I'm not expecting much and would still be disappointed.Lol, last one of the season. Enjoy whatever falls and then on to spring.Of course possible, but I also don't think you completely whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I get what you mean. I don't have any expectations at all given the delicacy of the situation and how much we need to go right, but even with that said, a miss on such a powerful storm so close would blow.meh not the first nor the last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 well it will come closer than the last three misses lol.....i dont quite think the cape is a lock.....reminds me of a feb 1992 monster that destroyed de me and canadian maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It just blows dead rats to complely whiff on the last 6 weeks of a season that were ripe with potential, and replete with cold.yup i agree, there were plenty of dissapointments at other times this winter toi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Whats funny is it looks like we will have this convo again soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 meh not the first nor the last Very true. There's just something appealing about ending winter with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I am not throwing out the idea of a storm for SNE and Cape. I just dont see how even with it possible closing off around CC, that these areas wont see the throw back precip usually associated with storms. I get the condensed and compact storm idea, but I am not exactly buying into that idea until I see for certain that there is no propagation potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Whats funny is it looks like we will have this convo again soon Maybe I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The weenies on the bus go round and round Hope it is at least windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It just blows dead rats to complely whiff on the last 6 weeks of a season that were ripe with potential, and replete with cold. Yeah, this one has the "salvage factor" hanging in the balance. A good hit (tall order out here) would save this winter from a "C" grade in these parts. A favorable pattern being wasted makes every potential miss a bit tougher to stomach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We don't want to see the UKMET move east, we need it to stay were it is, otherwise JB may be wrong, and I'm not getting 8-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I really don't understand how these are missed storms? These models are mathmatical probabilities of what could happen if everythiing was to go a certain way. We haven't missed anything really until hard data can be sampled from the vaiables being used as the in the equation. Really the only time we quote miss a storm is when we can nowcast to see if the storm predicted hits us. These math equations and statistical analysis algorythms can never account for all variable including chaos theory. So these are not misses though an errror in the data and the solution never existed. As a mathmatic and statistical SME we can never know all of the staistical variables and no matter how good the quote models are they will never be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The weenies on the bus go round and round Hope it is at least windy Because you haven't had enough wind the past few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Because you haven't had enough wind the past few days?No kidding. But at least it is doing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Stay on the topic of the storm. Take your bitchin' to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Everyone can relax, the 21z SREFs are a huge hit for SNE and especially eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Stay on the topic of the storm. Take your bitchin' to the banter thread. That should include any talk of the NAM past 48 hours, regardless of what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I've waited all day for a post like this. Number 17: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=21&mod=ncep_reps&hh=084&stn=PNMPR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That should include any talk of the NAM past 48 hours, regardless of what it shows. Well at 36 ridging is slightly stronger out west on the 0z NAM compared to 18z......but its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Number 17: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=21&mod=ncep_reps&hh=084&stn=PNMPR #8 is Ray's favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well at 36 ridging is slightly stronger out west on the 0z NAM compared to 18z......but its the NAMThat's acceptable, just don't speak of it past hour 48, it is bad for the soul and the meteorological profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Number 17: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=21&mod=ncep_reps&hh=084&stn=PNMPR I'll take what's behind door # 15 or #17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'll take what's behind door # 15 or #17. Decent number of less than pretty ones in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Decent number of less than pretty ones in there too. Yeah, Ray probably banks on #3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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