moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I can't get too invested for NW MA until I see a big enough NW jog that folks on the CP start to worry about p-type issues. lol Right there with you, Chris. Nothing to get all worked up about here at this point. Lowest of expectations--if it ends up coming close and bringing taint to 84, great (ain't gonna happen I don't think). Otherwise, our snow pack will continue to die a slow death and spring will blossom in due time. We'll see how the overnight plays out. Good night. 32.8/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I really think this is going to be SNE special and also a East MA special. The strenth and position of this storm currently modeled I really believe will be the final outcome. I also agree that the shape of the storm will create a gradient pattenrn simmilar to Jan 21 of this yeear. MBY SNH will see nothing except high clouds. This is what our local forcast is showing. I really think that this is ok since theses areas absolutely deserve this and and I hope they get burried. This late in March amazing and just shows you how special this winter is. I agree on the high probability of an outcome similar to modeled. This is likely not going to spread the wealth like some of past lore. However, the probability is not zero that CNE can get in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I really think this is going to be SNE special and also a East MA special. The strenth and position of this storm currently modeled I really believe will be the final outcome. I also agree that the shape of the storm will create a gradient pattenrn simmilar to Jan 21 of this yeear. MBY SNH will see nothing except high clouds. This is what our local forcast is showing. I really think that this is ok since theses areas absolutely deserve this and and I hope they get burried. This late in March amazing and just shows you how special this winter is.I'd be willing to bet we get at least 2'' out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Fwiw (not much I know) Tim Kelly says most of us get an inch or two. Then his five day looks like a blizzard? Strange guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thomas, I agree on the Jan 21 analogy. I'm thinking the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My college canceled all outdoor games this past week. This happens every year it seems. They only get a handful of games in in the first few weeks, then have games pretty much everyday for the final three weeks of school Not as bad as up at Plymouth State. At least you're grass now. Fields up there still have 2'+...long way to go for sports lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 And the establishment they would be overthrowing would be...the ukmet? Or just weenies' hopes in general?they would score an epic coup bc they have already been pretty steadfast minus one or two runs for days already and the few runs that were closer were really not that far different but close enough for sensible impacts to a larger part of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Really I don't see 2 inches not with temps above freezing on Wed and this storm being so strong and coma shaped this is not going to propogate west. Fluid dynamics and the current position of the high and phasing of the storm or lack there of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 they would score an epic coup bc they have already been pretty steadfast minus one or two runs for days already and the few runs that were closer were really not that far different but close enough for sensible impacts to a larger part of the areaThey have been steadfast...SE of the benchmark. I don't get how that is a coup. They have done what they were designed for.Not trying to be a jerk about it, I just don't understand your point about them scoring a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Fwiw (not much I know) Tim Kelly says most of us get an inch or two. Then his five day looks like a blizzard? Strange guy. Also fwiw Kelly said on his noon report today that eastern coastal areas and se MA to the cape would get snow "in the double digits, and single digits elsewhere". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Also fwiw Kelly said on his noon report today that eastern coastal areas and se MA to the cape would get snow "in the double digits, and single digits elsewhere". Indeed he did. We'll see lol. General question to anyone, isn't the euro known for handling really powerful systems very well and the GFS has a tendency to struggle with them (At least when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Really I don't see 2 inches not with temps above freezing on Wed and this storm being so strong and coma shaped this is not going to propogate west. Fluid dynamics and the current position of the high and phasing of the storm or lack there of.temps are not above freezing,strength of the storm ? You do remember Sandy, how about March last year.If it does get captured it can come way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Indeed he did. We'll see lol. General question to anyone, isn't the euro known for handling really powerful systems very well and the GFS has a tendency to struggle with them (At least when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis)? It's relative, and it's not limited to really powerful storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 18z GEFS trucking east with the QPF so substantially is disappointing. If there's a trend you want it to continue. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Indeed he did. We'll see lol. General question to anyone, isn't the euro known for handling really powerful systems very well and the GFS has a tendency to struggle with them (At least when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis)? actually my memory is that the UK handles bombogenesis best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Indeed he did. We'll see lol. General question to anyone, isn't the euro known for handling really powerful systems very well and the GFS has a tendency to struggle with them (At least when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis)? Not entirely certain on the lack of heavy precip into Central New England, Seems to me like most models are propagating the precipitation field outwards on the western side in some way shape or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 18z GEFS trucking east with the QPF so substantially is disappointing. If there's a trend you want it to continue. Meh. How many times have we seen the 18z lose a storm, only to find it back again at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 temps are not above freezing,strength of the storm ? You do remember Sandy, how about March last year.If it does get captured it can come way west This is what we are looking for the models to give any indication of the next 24 hours. The players are certainly moving into better data sampling now so we'll see. I don't see why so many peeps are discounting the possibility of a more amped up NW solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thomas, I agree on the Jan 21 analogy. I'm thinking the same. February 15 came to my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ah I see, thanks all. Not really "feeling" anything one way or another yet, going with Box's "give it 24hr" philosophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not entirely certain on the lack of heavy precip into Central New England, Seems to me like most models are propagating the precipitation field outwards on the western side in some way shape or form.deep easterly 850 inflow over a cold dome well prior to to any CCB formation probably account for a lot of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is going to disappoint a lot of people. just my humble opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is what we are looking for the models to give any indication of the next 24 hours. The players are certainly moving into better data sampling now so we'll see. I don't see why so many peeps are discounting the possibility of a more amped up NW solution.This thread has been relatively benign compared to others.That said, it's because only one model is showing it west, and it only has available precipitation maps out to 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is going to disappoint a lot of people. just my humble opinion. Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is going to disappoint a lot of people. just my humble opinion.not sure anyone is excited yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is going to disappoint a lot of people. just my humble opinion. You make assumptions on people's expectations. Kevin will likely be disappointed in not getting the great white hurricane. Do you think I will be disappointed with 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 not sure anyone is excited yet Nothing to get excited about other then watching the model shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 They have been steadfast...SE of the benchmark. I don't get how that is a coup. They have done what they were designed for. Not trying to be a jerk about it, I just don't understand your point about them scoring a coup. well they would certainly be in better agreement than with last feb blizz or frankly any other event this winter plus it be the first lr storm in ages that actually became a storm, not a phantom like so many other times recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is going to disappoint a lot of people. just my humble opinion. I don't think anyone should have ANY expectations for this event outside of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Febuary 15 comes to mind for me as a similar situation as to how this may play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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