Tornadomachine Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I would love a third of that Sure would be nice. Dynamics are waaaay different this time though, I assume we are talking impact wise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Sure would be nice. Dynamics are waaaay different this time though, I assume we are talking impact wise here.Yeah. Just impact wise. I'm on the edge if I am lucky. As of now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I can't get too invested for NW MA until I see a big enough NW jog that folks on the CP start to worry about p-type issues. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 not concerned by 18z GFS... - ridging actually better out west (vs. 12z) - issue 1: lead shortwave energy scoots out off NC further east and spoils downstream ridging keeping flow just a touch more progressive - issue 2: followup shortwave energy does not dig as much as in 12z (compare 18z 3/25 timepoint: 18z has energy north/central NC, 12z has energy into SC)... this followup shortwave energy is less able to capture the lead wave This may be closer to reality, maybe not. But these subtle nuances make a huge difference and probably can't be sorted out this far out. Issue 1/2 obvious here: 18z 03_22_18z_GFS.png 12z (also notice followup shortwave digging into SC) 03_22_12z_GFS.png The large scale features (ridging out west, placement of Hudson Bay ULL) are just fine on this 18z run. But these subtle nuances of how the pieces of energy interact probably won't be sorted out this far out. Going forward we watch for signs of a dissociated lead low (dumb-bell or elongated SLPs as seen on some earlier guidance?), but clearly too subtle nuances to say anything definitively. Nice post. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 not concerned by 18z GFS... - ridging actually better out west (vs. 12z) - issue 1: lead shortwave energy scoots out off NC further east and spoils downstream ridging keeping flow just a touch more progressive - issue 2: followup shortwave energy does not dig as much as in 12z (compare 18z 3/25 timepoint: 18z has energy north/central NC, 12z has energy into SC)... this followup shortwave energy is less able to capture the lead wave This may be closer to reality, maybe not. But these subtle nuances make a huge difference and probably can't be sorted out this far out. Issue 1/2 obvious here: 18z 03_22_18z_GFS.png 12z (also notice followup shortwave digging into SC) 03_22_12z_GFS.png The large scale features (ridging out west, placement of Hudson Bay ULL) are just fine on this 18z run. But these subtle nuances of how the pieces of energy interact probably won't be sorted out this far out. Going forward we watch for signs of a dissociated lead low (dumb-bell or elongated SLPs as seen on some earlier guidance?), but clearly too subtle nuances to say anything definitively. Thank you for putting into words and pictures the thoughts I knew I had but didn't know what they were. The run looked fine to me from the standpoint that it all looks a little ridiculous. Point being, small nuances can become blown up by really powerful storms. It's not that the nuances or their compounded effects aren't real...they just aren't determinable this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah. Just impact wise. I'm on the edge if I am lucky. As of now... "I'm on the edge... of glory..." No kidding, feeling the pain. Four towns to your NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 if this thing ends up being se of bm it will be an epic coup for gfs and euro both. i dont expect much back this way anyways be nice to have a cloudy cold windy day wed, maybe one last cold day to cook some comfort food classics And the establishment they would be overthrowing would be...the ukmet? Or just weenies' hopes in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 not concerned by 18z GFS... - ridging actually better out west (vs. 12z) - issue 1: lead shortwave energy scoots out off NC further east and spoils downstream ridging keeping flow just a touch more progressive - issue 2: followup shortwave energy does not dig as much as in 12z (compare 18z 3/25 timepoint: 18z has energy north/central NC, 12z has energy into SC)... this followup shortwave energy is less able to capture the lead wave And looking more closely, that lead shortwave energy at 3/25 18z that delays phasing and screws up the solution on the 18z GFS is not present on the 12z Euro, nor the 12z / 6z / 0z GFS. Maybe 18z GFS is on to something with this detail, but I'm skeptical for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This is why I told you to hold off your end of winter thoughts The chances of a storm this large as modeled here.....slim. I will still take the under on this being a historic snow IMBY. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The chances of a storm this large as modeled here.....slim. I will still take the under on this being a historic snow IMBY. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. I'm not saying historic, but you tossed any snow out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 18z GEFS definitely have that nudge or extension of the MSLP contour to the west so there mustbe some members near or west of the BM it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm not saying historic, but you tossed any snow out the window. Remains to be seen. Much will be told in the next 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The chances of a storm this large as modeled here.....slim. I will still take the under on this being a historic snow IMBY. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. No offense but I'll be pulling for you to have mixing at the coast. lol It was right at this time frame the Euro started the NW move for the 3/12 storm so tonight and 12z tomorrow is what I'll be using to gauge how much of my life I'll be committing to model watching monday and tuesday. If it looks like cirrus bongs here on tomorrows 12z Euro I'll be hoping for a flip into full spring mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No offense but I'll be pulling for you to have mixing at the coast. lol It was right at this time frame the Euro started the NW move for the 3/12 storm so tonight and 12z tomorrow is what I'll be using to gauge how much of my life I'll be committing to model watching monday and tuesday. If it looks like cirrus bongs here on tomorrows 12z Euro I'll be hoping for a flip into full spring mode. Yeah, If the cape mixes, That usually bodes well here as well................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 18z GEFS definitely have that nudge or extension of the MSLP contour to the west so there mustbe some members near or west of the BM it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 f90.gif I was thinking more hr 84, but the ensembles still have members that are clueless on that mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Spring sports for CT high schools start on Monday and colleges/universities are already underway. I love a good blizzard but that will raise hell with a lot of schedules. I have to believe much of the general public won't believe this until they see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Spring sports for CT high schools start on Monday and colleges/universities are already underway. I love a good blizzard but that will raise hell with a lot of schedules. I have to believe much of the general public won't believe this until they see it. My college canceled all outdoor games this past week. This happens every year it seems. They only get a handful of games in in the first few weeks, then have games pretty much everyday for the final three weeks of school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah, If the cape mixes, That usually bodes well here as well................lolEven I want the cape to mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Even I want the cape to mix. May be a tall task Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 May be a tall task If we all work together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's going to mix on the cape now? That's good for us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's going to mix on the cape now? That's good for us!! Lol, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's going to mix on the cape now? That's good for us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's going to mix on the cape now? That's good for us!! Mix of sun and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Dumbfounded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Even I want the cape to mix. lol, I need them to go WAA mixed precip and then dryslot, and even that isn't enough sometimes. Ahh the vast geography of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If we could get member P007 of the GEFS that'd be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Waiting for the models suck, at least we have bruins hockey Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I really think this is going to be SNE special and also a East MA special. The strenth and position of this storm currently modeled I really believe will be the final outcome. I also agree that the shape of the storm will create a gradient pattenrn simmilar to Jan 21 of this yeear. MBY SNH will see nothing except high clouds. This is what our local forcast is showing. I really think that this is ok since theses areas absolutely deserve this and and I hope they get burried. This late in March amazing and just shows you how special this winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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