OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm not laughing. Yeah, it is a real possibility, though I wouldn't favor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I wish someone calculated an ensemble median. Would be better.median is 967 about 75 miles NW of mean if my calcs are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Regardless of the skemantics debate on the mean, op runs should start holding more weight as we head into the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah, it is a real possibility, though I wouldn't favor it. No offense but it's a nonsensical thought. Every major big coastal has an inverted trof component. To say this is even modeled as the predominant feature in this case is wrong, A big coastal has been in the guidance ...all guidance just different loci for days and days and now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 @BigJoeBastardi: UKMET now with same map for Wednesday for 3 straight days. Like this position best Wed am http://t.co/plBvBti7Nu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No offense but it's a nonsensical thought. Every major big coastal has an inverted trof component. To say this is even modeled as the predominant feature in this case is wrong, A big coastal has been in the guidance ...all guidance just different loci for days and days and now. No one is favoring that as an outcome in this particular case, but it does happen, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No offense but it's a nonsensical thought. Every major big coastal has an inverted trof component. To say this is even modeled as the predominant feature in this case is wrong, A big coastal has been in the guidance ...all guidance just different loci for days and days and now. I'm not so sure, Jerry. There has been a considerable amount of solutions showing a double-barreled low. I believe this a symptom of a combination of convection and the lead shortwave getting out too far ahead of the northern stream. If they get a bit further separated, you'll have the primary being the escaping southern low with an inverted trough back to the coast with the northern stream energy pouring in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Happy hour run not happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No offense but it's a nonsensical thought. Every major big coastal has an inverted trof component. To say this is even modeled as the predominant feature in this case is wrong, A big coastal has been in the guidance ...all guidance just different loci for days and days and now.my thoughts mean little but this run reminded me very much of Jan 11 modeling, what ended up happening is the Eastern lp sig faded with time. That was an interesting development today,one the GGEM had 2 days ago. When you see the boobs look on models often one LP ends up being real the other a Convective feedback issue. Something to watch tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 All part of the waffle game. I actually liked how the west looked and a second piece of energy coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Happy hour run not happy. what does that mean? Gfs stuck at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 the norlun thing was originally posted to lightly troll ray anyway, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 what does that mean? Gfs stuck at 48 hrs A near miss. Out to 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm thinking 12Z tomorrow significantly narrows the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A near miss. Out to 99. oh.. is an off hour run we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 @BigJoeBastardi: UKMET now with same map for Wednesday for 3 straight days. Like this position best Wed am http://t.co/plBvBti7Nu Ill give JB credit here, going with the most consistent model right now the past three days is smart IMO. It literally hasnt wavered much at all, i dont know the UKMET verification scores at this rangr but it cant be too far from the rest of the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It actually looks better but end game is more or less the same, maybe a tick se for the qpf guys who will mAke a comparison post and say it is se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 All part of the waffle game. I actually liked how the west looked and a second piece of energy coming down. Yea, its out to 72 hours on Levi's website and there is definitely more energy hanging back west (kicking trough is also further west). The problem is the first s/w that's ahead of the more potent shortwave is stronger and thus there is not as much ridging downstream (subtropical ridging weaker). A good case of one portion of the initial conditions counteracting the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yea, its out to 72 hours on Levi's website and there is definitely more energy hanging back west (kicking trough is also further west). The problem is the GFS phasing of energy is less clean. Just the solution is weaker in roughly the same location. Yeah You can see that early in the game. The heights from the Great lakes eastward had a more zonal flow and didn't buckle as much as 12z did. It really does not sway me one bit either way to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ill give JB credit here, going with the most consistent model right now the past three days is smart IMO. It literally hasnt wavered much at all, i dont know the UKMET verification scores at this rangr but it cant be too far from the rest of the globals Gfs hasnt wavered much either. I cant recall ukie being a preferred guidance of choice for big coastals, but joe knows this and joes knows that...i know crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Gfs hasnt wavered much either. I cant recall ukie being a preferred guidance of choice for big coastals, but joe knows this and joes knows that...i know crap. But, many times Joe tweets crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Gfs hasnt wavered much either. I cant recall ukie being a preferred guidance of choice for big coastals, but joe knows this and joes knows that...i know crap.As far as the forecast map goes its pretty much been dead set for three days now and the EURO/GFS have actually wavered some. Who knows, may be just noise and i do agree the UKMET really isnt the global model of choice i know that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah You can see that early in the game. The heights from the Great lakes eastward had a more zonal flow and didn't buckle as much as 12z did. It really does not sway me one bit either way to be honest. I edited my post, but it also appears to leading shortwave is stronger which pushes the heights down ahead of the next shortwave. Its subtle, but it delays the phase of energy of the next shortwaves till the system is further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I edited my post, but it also appears to leading shortwave is stronger which pushes the heights down ahead of the next shortwave. Its subtle, but it delays the phase of energy of the next shortwaves till the system is further offshore.We've seen this before this year where a lead shortwave drags the baraclonic zone too far east and the "bigger" storm actually goes OTS instead. Guess we'll have to see tonight and 12z tommorow for some definitive answers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's funny seeing the 18z do this deliberately to be an azzhole -- haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Energy getting pulled back to the coast? Dare I hold out hope for Fujiwara Firehose 2014? NAM has a super-weenie norlun into WV at 81 hours. Why is it that things in the atmosphere always get weirder when more energy is involved? Or is it just the NAM struggling to comprehend it all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 not concerned by 18z GFS... - ridging actually better out west (vs. 12z) - issue 1: lead shortwave energy scoots out off NC further east and spoils downstream ridging keeping flow just a touch more progressive - issue 2: followup shortwave energy does not dig as much as in 12z (compare 18z 3/25 timepoint: 18z has energy north/central NC, 12z has energy into SC)... this followup shortwave energy is less able to capture the lead wave This may be closer to reality, maybe not. But these subtle nuances make a huge difference and probably can't be sorted out this far out. Issue 1/2 obvious here: 18z 12z (also notice followup shortwave digging into SC) The large scale features (ridging out west, placement of Hudson Bay ULL) are just fine on this 18z run. But these subtle nuances of how the pieces of energy interact probably won't be sorted out this far out. Going forward we watch for signs of a dissociated lead low (dumb-bell or elongated SLPs as seen on some earlier guidance?), but clearly too subtle nuances to say anything definitively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 if this thing ends up being se of bm it will be an epic coup for gfs and euro both. i dont expect much back this way anyways be nice to have a cloudy cold windy day wed, maybe one last cold day to cook some comfort food classics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I honestly think that this will be son of April Fools 97.I would love a third of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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