JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Anyone buying CFI on Euro/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hell of a BOX aftn AFD .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...*/ HIGHLIGHTS...- ARCTIC HIGH PRES AND UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR MONDAY- STRONG OFFSHORE STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW/WIND- HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THURSDAY...TURNING SEASONABLE- DECENT SHOT OF WET WEATHER AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...WHETHER THE 22.12Z ECMWF WOBBLES AND SHOWS SIGNS OF RETROGRESSION INRESPONSE OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED WITHIN THE CLOSED H5 ADDS ALEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY VERSUS A BLEND OF GFS/CANADIAN GUIDANCE. ON THEADVICE OF WPC ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED WHICH HIGHLIGHT A STRONGOFFSHORE STORM FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. JUST HOW STRONGAND BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF WHICH VARIES AMONG DETERMINISTICAND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITHREGARDS TO SPECIFICS. NO ONE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED.*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. BREEZY DURING THE DAY WITH A CONTINUEDWELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85. NW WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 MPHPOSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN PANCAKE CUMULUS. CONSIDERING THIS ANDH85 TEMPS AROUND -16 TO -18C WARRANT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-20S /WELL BELOW-NORMAL BY 20 DEGREES/. ONE MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERYLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT FEEL BOTH TEMPS ANDLIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MIDWEEK STORM.IT WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY COLD WITH MINS AROUND THE LOW-TEENS...BUT EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE BLANKET-EFFECT IN ADDITION TO SURFACE WINDS TURNING ONSHORE S/SE.TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MEAT AND POTATOES OF THE FORECAST. BROADLY SPEAKING...ARCTIC-AND PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES UNDERGO PHASING AND AMPLIFY AS THEYCYCLONICALLY DIG THRU THE BROADER TROUGH REGIME INVOKING A NEGATIVE-TILT THAT CLOSES OFF IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. INTER-ACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACECYCLOGENESIS PREVAILS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES TUESDAY DEEPENS NETOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK TUESDAY EVENING BOMBING OUT ANDUNDERGOING OCCLUSION TO A POTENTIAL CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 970-980MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING.WHETHER THE LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARDS BETTER PRESSURE FALLSREMAINS IN QUESTION /SEE 22.12Z ECMWF/.BEFORE GOING FURTHER...CONSIDER TWO THINGS: 1) THE ASSOCIATED ENERGYIS JUST COMING ASHORE LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER-SAMPLED OVER THE NEXT12-24 HRS...AND 2) POSSIBLY SUBSEQUENT TO THE PRESENT POOR-SAMPLINGTHERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THELOW ALBEIT THE SUCCINCT NATURE OF THE TRACK. SO FEEL THE INTANGIBLESLEND TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SPECIFIC OUTCOMES. THUS THE REMAINDEROF THIS DISCUSSION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL WHAT/WHERE/WHEN OFIMPACTS /AS NOTHING IS CERTAIN/ BASED ON SIGNALS DERIVED FROM THELATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND CIPS ANALOGS.*/SNOW...SYNOPSIS...TROWALING OF THE WCB TO THE NW-QUAD OF THE CLOSING WITHINENHANCING DEFORMATION BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET YIELDSDEEP-LAYER ASCENT THRU THE SNOW-GROWTH REGION. ANTICIPATING SW-NESNOW-BANDS.- SNOW-BANDS LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY THE HEIGHT OF WHICH WILL BEAROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS SE NEWENGLAND.- WITH CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WE MAYNEED WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND WITH ADJACENTADVISORIES TOWARDS THE INTERIOR. AGAIN...STILL AN UNCERTAINFORECAST.- A SHARP NW-SE CUTOFF OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISALLOBARIC/AGEOSTROPHIC N/NW FLOW DRIVES COLDER AND DRIER AIR TOWARDS THESYSTEM.- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY. GREATEST CONFIDENCE OVER THECOASTAL SOUTHEAST. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INTANGIBLESAND UNCERTAINTY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE TOCONSIDER.*/WINDS...SYNOPSIS...BOMBING LOW AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS LENDS TO A SURFACELOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 970-980 MB AROUND WHICH NORTHERLY WINDS WILLAMPLIFY ROUGHLY 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /ANOMALOUS/.- HEIGHT OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS CENTERS AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNINGWITH UPWARDS OF 70 MPH ROUGHLY 1-2 KFT AGL.- WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD /ESP OVER THEWARMER WATERS/ WITH STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE-FALLS OF AROUND 35 MBIN 6-HOURS.- CONSIDERING THIS WITH THE WFO LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...AND IMPACTGUIDANCE PER CIPS ANALOGS...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF HIGH-WINDWARNINGS /GUSTS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH/ ALONG THE E/SE-SHORE /ESP CAPEANN...CAPE COD...NANTUCKET/ WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORIES/46-57 MPH GUSTS/ ACROSS THE E/SE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAINS.- MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS EXCEEDING STORM-FORCE /48KTS/ OVER THE SE WATERS WITH GALES FOR THE EASTERN AND FAR-SOUTHERNWATERS.*/COASTAL IMPACTS...HIGH TIDES CENTER AROUND 7-8 AM/PM FOR THE E-SHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...ROUGHLY 8-9 AM/PM SOUTHEAST...AND 4-5 AM/PM FOR THE S-SHORE OF NEWENGLAND...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. YET COMBINEDWITH WINDS...AM CONCERNED OF SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES AND COASTALIMPACTS ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SHORELINES SUCH AS CAPE ANN...WITHINCAPE COD BAY...AND NANTUCKET.- MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAYMORNING AND WINDS MAY YIELD POTENTIAL SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTALFLOODING CONCERNS. MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.- MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING AT LEAST 10 FEET...PERHAPS GETTING ABOVE 20 FEET FOR THE SOUTHEAST WATERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 First of all the storm is not over the benchmark as modeled... it's a decent jog SE of there. Secondly there will be a sharp cut off - the cold conveyorbelt/comma head is going to be very intense and mature as the storm passes by. It will be the haves and the haves nots. Ok you've started your i=opinions and I've stated mine and why I believe it to be correct. At this point it's time to start thinking about public impacts/power/schools etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I guess we'll disagree on that. I don't see a sharp cut off at all. This will get good snows back to ALB Clarify "good snows" just so we can look back on this post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When did typhoon start writing the afd's at Taunton. One more run and I will be pulled in, just when I had moved to spring mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Bob, no reason to try to deter folks from engaging me. I'm not trolling, and feel as though my assertions are entirely founded. I'm not trying to troll. Hopefully I'm wrong. I know, and I don't disagree with your assertions. I just don't think the discussion needs to be prolonged any more than it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Clarify "good snows" just so we can look back on this post? 3-6 inches to me is good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok you've started your i=opinions and I've stated mine and why I believe it to be correct. At this point it's time to start thinking about public impacts/power/schools etc.. Please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Means nothing today,absolutely nothing, a 50 mile shift either way and its a different tune. No one is nailing where the CCB sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When did typhoon start writing the afd's at Taunton. One more run and I will be pulled in, just when I had moved to spring mode. Could be a hell of a storm on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When did typhoon start writing the afd's at Taunton. One more run and I will be pulled in, just when I had moved to spring mode. i'd want to be SE of a line from pym-ewb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Means nothing today,absolutely nothing, a 50 mile shift either way and its a different tune. No one is nailing where the CCB sets up. Correct. There's a difference between saying that we don't know exactly where the CCB sets up and this storm having some fantasy giant/diffuse QPF shield because Kevin is looking at the model runs with the thickest weenie goggles known to man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Means nothing today,absolutely nothing, a 50 mile shift either way and its a different tune. No one is nailing where the CCB sets up.Verification usually ends up decently different than what the progs have at 90-96hr. I'm just sitting back and letting it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i'd want to be SE of a line from pym-ewb He is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I know, and I don't disagree with your assertions. I just don't think the discussion needs to be prolonged any more than it has. Ok, I'll drop it. That AFD seems pretty on par with my thoughts, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i'd want to be SE of a line from pym-ewb I'm 5 mi N of that line. What's that mean for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Means nothing today,absolutely nothing, a 50 mile shift either way and its a different tune. No one is nailing where the CCB sets up. Yeah. Really good agreement on a pretty epic system in the immediate area. Details TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i'd want to be SE of a line from pym-ewb Yeah that's my area I'm basically on the cape and my interests is still tempered by the fact that I think historically speaking as modeled this would be one of/the largest late season snows in history here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Verification usually ends up decently different than what the progs have at 90-96hr. I'm just sitting back and letting it play out.yep,no confidence in any outcomes yet. Those claiming SE could be as wrong as those claiming to know its coming NW. Lots of east inflow before main show over a cold dome can not be discounted either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah that's my area I'm basically on the cape and my interests is still tempered by the fact that I think historically speaking as modeled this would be one of/the largest late season snows in history here. This is why I told you to hold off your end of winter thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Just lurking in the weeds watching these model shifts, And today so far, They have been favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I do think statements of whiffs or being pummeled are 50/50 at this juncture. One has to choose their words wisely around here. With the set-up as such and what the models are "leaning" toward is more than a scrapper. The opinions and statements from many get ripped for no reason what-so-ever. Hey a two footer looks to be burying Eastern Mass. Many will dodge a bullet, a beast of a tempest just missed the Northeast. EQUAL CHANCE. What happened to respect and exchange of ideas. I think Eastern areas get a storm with plowable potential. That is safe statement and I hope it does not offend anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I honestly think that this will be son of April Fools 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Good representation posted by https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus Those 950/940's on the left side of the envelope are a bit ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'll take that 950mb s of New Bedford. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I assume that is the EURO ens plots.... The heaviest clustering def. seems just to the nw of the center on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Based on that image, the spread seems to be left leaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There seem to be a lot of solutions slightly west of the mean. A few eastern outliers skew it further east but that's a damned encouraging picture. Median would be a major blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'll take that 950mb s of New Bedford. Thanks. Lol, that would be absolutely insane(ly awesome). That clustering for a bump NW is definitely good to see. Well, even box seems to be saying give this another 24 hours before clinging to any notions of confidence in the models. Really cool that a hit from a system with this kind of power is on the table, in late march no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There seem to be a lot of solutions slightly west of the mean. A few eastern outliers skew it further east but that's a damned encouraging picture. Median would be a major blizzard. I actually agree with this, but until we see that manifest itself in the mean, paint me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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