40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z Non UK consensus of a scraper. I'm noticing a theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah, I saw nothing that screamed, oh crap! Just another solution in the myriad of ones we will see. One thing I do like seeing is it bombing out as it passes our latitude. This may be one of those systems that looks like its going to escape east but get captured and tugged west a little bit as the trailing s/w catches up to it. And it doesn't hurt to see that p/v dropping south some too. Interesting Euro solution. I would not get hung up just yet on any 12z solution. Still lots of time for this to go either way. If this plays out as such, looks like we 'll be delaying soccer for at least a week, lol. Nice to hear the Euro Ensm similar to the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm fine with it. If it improves at 00z it's even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 the mean is drier than 0zNot for eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 just looking through the KU book, I would have to say the only storm that is similar to the modeled evolution of this event going strictly by mslp is march 1-2 1914 .. only as modeled this storm is about 150 mi further east. same idea though with a rapidly intensifying low hooking to the west (952 mb over long island!!). would be nice to see 500 mb for this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z Non UK consensus of a scraper. I'm noticing a theme. .50 back to west of HFD is a scraper? I'd call that a pretty significant direct hit on a 3-4 day smoothed out mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z Non UK consensus of a scraper. I'm noticing a theme. just toss GGEM, GGEM Ens, Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 just toss GGEM, GGEM Ens, Euro? Let him be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 just toss GGEM, GGEM Ens, Euro? They all imply a sharp cut off around I 95 to me....forget that gradual drop off to .5" in central MA. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Fully agree. We're all a little gunshy, but the writing's on the wall imho. Not the same suppression regime we've suffered before. It seems there's pretty good guidance consensus on larger scale features, but now just a matter of timing how the pieces of energy ejecting off NC interact. Even if the lead shortwave ejects far east, there is so much residual energy that the slp gets tugged back. Scheduled to give a talk Wed 12pm. This talk was postponed from a previous Wednesday: February 5, 2014. You remember what happened that date. 3 times the charm?...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 just toss GGEM, GGEM Ens, Euro?Like salad.I do think this will be looked back on as an "imagine if" event. But it is looking good for a moderate to pretty big snowfall for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z Non UK consensus of a scraper. I'm noticing a theme. You'll b**ch your way to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 They all imply a sharp cut off around I 95 to me....forget that gradual drop off to .5" in central MA. Not happening. This storm is not going to have a sharp cut off. The trough going negative allows all kinds of moisture to get thrown back very far to the west..This isn't a storm fighting dry air. This is going to very significantly impact the entire region with very heavy snows and very strong winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z euro ENS mean has ~0.6-0.7" of QPF for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I don't know what is unreasonable about interpreting this as a consensus for cut off around I 95. That is considering every piece of guidance out there. The qpf field associated with a wound up tempest like this will be smoothed out on guidance at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro ensemble has definitely cut back QPF outside of the east coast. Like Ray, I do think a sharp cut-off is likely with the QPF. It won't surprise me to see that cut-off sharpen more in the coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I know what is unreasonable about interpreting this as a consensus for cut off around I 95. That is considering every piece of guidance out there. And the model consensus is definitely a scraper right now. I don't know why people are arguing on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There will most certainly be a sharp cutoff to precip. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 I guess we'll disagree on that. I don't see a sharp cut off at all. This will get good snows back to ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This storm is not going to have a sharp cut off. The trough going negative allows all kinds of moisture to get thrown back very far to the west..This isn't a storm fighting dry air. This is going to very significantly impact the entire region with very heavy snows and very strong winds Ok. Enjoy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I've never seen a system that dumps 8 on BOS and 1-2 for Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I guess we'll disagree on that. I don't see a sharp cut off at all. This will get good snows back to ALB Now you're just trolling/being a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 this setup reminds me of january 2000 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/us0120.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/us0121.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro ensemble has definitely cut back QPF outside of the east coast. Like Ray, I do think a sharp cut-off is likely with the QPF. It won't surprise me to see that cut-off sharpen more in the coming runs. I agree due to the initial best baroclinic zone being pushed offshore. That should correct itself as the low bombs out as it passes by. Call me a weenie but I feel the greatest impacts will be felt S & E of PVD/ BOS if it plays out as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm not worried too much on QPF now..that will oscillate. I thought the features driving the storm looked a little better than 00z and that's all that should matter at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Now you're just trolling/being a weenie. I 100% believe this gets snow that far west.. You don't get sharp cutoff with a low over the BM and a captured low/negative tilt Just my opinion and I like how all models and ens have come NW Maybe I'll be wrong..and that's ok..I 've had a gut feeling on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I 100% believe this gets snow that far west.. You don't get sharp cutoff with a low over the BM and a captured low/negative tilt Just my opinion and I like how all models and ens have come NW Maybe I'll be wrong..and that's ok..I 've had a gut feeling on this one First of all the storm is not over the benchmark as modeled... it's a decent jog SE of there. Secondly there will be a sharp cut off - the cold conveyorbelt/comma head is going to be very intense and mature as the storm passes by. It will be the haves and the haves nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I agree due to the initial best baroclinic zone being pushed offshore. That should correct itself as the low bombs out as it passes by. Call me a weenie but I feel the greatest impacts will be felt S & E of PVD/ BOS if it plays out as such. Absolutely. Not weenieish at all. This is what I have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 this setup reminds me of january 2000 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/us0120.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/us0121.php 2/25/99 crossed my mind although this time I think BOS does better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Bob, no reason to try to deter folks from engaging me. I'm not trolling, and feel as though my assertions are entirely founded. I'm not trying to troll. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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