CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow, curves in almost!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Let the freakin' model play out guys.Sorry lol. It was east though, but qpf isn't bad....much better at the end. I must be a frame behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 feeling pretty good about this one, we will shift a bit NW overtime, up to 495 should be feeling it. I95 corridor possible blizzard.. 965mb low is nothing to sneeze about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Man what a great day of runs and trends . Big hit becoming likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NW of 00z at hr 1`02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Diurnal factor will be crucial with this, especially for those on the fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hr 102... shift that just a little west and look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Let the freakin' model play out guys. You have to admit this one was pretty darn funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 My gut says the 00z suite looks nice. Like I said last night I think this is a E MA storm at worst. I don't see how it whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Cape gets absolutely crushed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That s/w induces a NORLUN trough look that almost wants to develop a secondary south of LI. Sometimes these things actually portend the low being a bit further west. That lead low sort of causes issues, but if that is a bit weaker or not modeled properly..it has a significant impact on where the low develops/moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 My gut says the 00z suite looks nice. Like I said last night I think this is a E MA storm at worst. I don't see how it whiffs. I don't think anyone expects sne east of the Berkshires to see nothing but a cirrus canopy, but the concern is that the meat and potatoes are confined to se MA/CC. The bulk looks to occur during the day on Wednesday, too, so a total .5" of qpf over 6 hours won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NW of 00z at hr 1`02 Starts out further east off the carolinas, Hangs back a lot of moisture NW, And gets tugged back hard NNW and ends up better then 0z up here......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 >1" QPF from GHG-PVD-GON-ISP >0.5" QPF form ASH-HFD-EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That s/w induces a NORLUN trough look that almost wants to develop a secondary south of LI. Sometimes these things actually portend the low being a bit further west. That lead low sort of causes issues, but if that is a bit weaker or not modeled properly..it has a significant impact on where the low develops/moves. Yes - you can see strong convergence from the Jersey Shore all the way east to where that initial low forms. Pretty neat look. Not a surprise to see QPF bump up. The low takes a circuitous route to get to a location NW of 00z by 102 hours. I'm guessing the ensembles will be even farther NW than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The capture and stall makes total sense given how strong that s/w is. The question is how soon does it happen, and how strong and the location of that sh*tty lead low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The capture and stall makes total sense given how strong that s/w is. The question is how soon does it happen, and how strong and the location of that sh*tty lead low. 3 or 6 hours will make all the difference with the capture and wx impact here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Feeling cautiously optimistic here. Feeling the razor sharp cutoff will be close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Do you guys know that the governing dynamics for this thing are currently passing over the western arc of the arctic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 3 or 6 hours will make all the difference with the capture and wx impact here in SNE. Yeah for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I don't think anyone expects sne east of the Berkshires to see nothing but a cirrus canopy, but the concern is that the meat and potatoes are confined to se MA/CC. The bulk looks to occur during the day on Wednesday, too, so a total .5" of qpf over 6 hours won't cut it. Obviously the higher sun angle and I haven't seen the Euro but the BL looks to be pretty cold throughout, so I'm not sure this is going to be that much of an issue. If you could rip .5'' of QPF in 6 hours there shouldn't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Obviously the higher sun angle and I haven't seen the Euro but the BL looks to be pretty cold throughout, so I'm not sure this is going to be that much of an issue. If you could rip .5'' of QPF in 6 hours there shouldn't be an issue. I can see temps struggling to make it > 20 for this given the 850 temps and low dewpoints. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Obviously the higher sun angle and I haven't seen the Euro but the BL looks to be pretty cold throughout, so I'm not sure this is going to be that much of an issue. If you could rip .5'' of QPF in 6 hours there shouldn't be an issue.Yeah...0.50" in 6hrs is a wallop...even if it is spread out evenly. It's the 0.01"-0.03"/hr garbage you want to avoid. Especially if you're dealing with thin overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You've been staying stuff like this for over a month. It goes both ways. I understand things can change, but my thoughts aren't just based on current guidance. My gut just tells me this will be a glancing blow. I have not said anything in a month, what are you talking about,Euro just showed 8-10 for you,how anyone can say where a ccb setsup 4 days out is a mystery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Sorry lol. It was east though, but qpf isn't bad....much better at the end. I must be a frame behind WeatherMA don't do that again, you got me depressed. At the end of the run, let me know how it looks for us up here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 3 or 6 hours will make all the difference with the capture and wx impact here in SNE.3/1/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 WeatherMA don't do that again, you got me depressed. At the end of the run, let me know how it looks for us up here..... I learned my lesson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah...0.50" in 6hrs is a wallop...even if it is spread out evenly. It's the 0.01"-0.03"/hr garbage you want to avoid. Especially if you're dealing with thin overcast.surprised really that Ray said that,cold storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I don't think Ray can see those details so he's just wondering. It is a cold storm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Whatever happens... that's gotta be about the fastest translation of an approximate 900,000 sq naut mile cyclones in the history of cyclones that are that large. 24 hours, and it's cleared NS, and we are on the doorstop of a wind veer toward the SW... D6 heralds spring ... deep layer WSW flow through +2 to +4C at 850 should easily push regional temps into the 60s at this time of year. It'll be interesting if this storm impacts with a blizzard; could be the quickest environmental turnarounds we've witness in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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