CTWeatherFreak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 SV, posted on another board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Another look at the GGEM posted by an EC met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GEFS' s = I still only like 3 of those. Up from 1 at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GEFS p010 blizzard for eastern MA... even introduces some ptype issues to outer cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Still seems like the consensus is for a scrape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It will likely be even sharper. The storm will be a powerful monster with a mature CCB. If you're in the CCB you get nailed if you're no then you're probably missing out. It's going to be all or nothing with a very narrow window of "some snow". I'd place that cut off on I95 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'd place that cut off on I95 right now. Seems reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Seems reasonable to me. The only major model that is impressive beyond that point is the UK, which looks like it may even have precip type issues into se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'd place that cut off on I95 right now.Still time for shifting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Canadian ensembles ticked west a bit from 00z it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'd place that cut off on I95 right now.As it stands now, MBY and even into SNH still gets a 2-4" type of plowable deal imo.Sent from my VS980 4G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ukie and GGEM crushes coastal SNE Congrats, coasties. Don't be greedy. For the queens... 12z GEFS Some tasty members for a lot of folks. A whole lotta meh for GC. Agree with Ryan--it's going to be an ugly cut-off between the haves and have-nots as wrapped up as this is modeled to be. Turned into a beautiful afternoon. The 1/4" of snow quickly has melted from the pavement, but it's still making the snowpack look a smidge fresher. 40.8/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Eeyores calling it in already, nice,yea nothing ever changes 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Like Scott said GGEM ensembles are significantly farther NW than op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 "As this stands now" should be the start to every post. Every model has something for Wednesday. We all know the ensembles are the hedge way to forecast with this lead time. All models are to be weighed and the known bias of each. Safe to say that from a line approx. LWM down to BDR will have snow flying. Could be a monster. A fifty mile shift on the track to the NW has huge implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Like Scott said GGEM ensembles are significantly farther NW than op run.Can't be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Eeyores calling it in already, nice,yea nothing ever changes 4 days out Of course things can change, and I'm not ruling out that it would--but there's a pretty good consensus among the models that this will be a scraper. And like I said about the ensembles maps that I responded to, it was a whole lot of meh for GC. Suffice it to say, I'd be a lot more confident if I were down by you rather than here for this. The winds on top of the museum could be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Like Scott said GGEM ensembles are significantly farther NW than op run. How reliable are those? Did he say how far NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Can't be true Really can't say much until the Euro/Euro Ens come out. There's no question this storm could come NW and be a monster for SNE but there's also the chance that it winds up slipping east a bit. All of the above are within the range of reasonable solutions at this juncture. My gut feeling is/has been a big storm so I'm watching this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 How reliable are those? Did he say how far NW? They're substantially NW of the op run and last night;s 00z ensemble mean. They're not particularly useful but it's a bit noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 "As this stands now" should be the start to every post. Every model has something for Wednesday. We all know the ensembles are the hedge way to forecast with this lead time. All models are to be weighed and the known bias of each. Safe to say that from a line approx. LWM down to BDR will have snow flying. Could be a monster. A fifty mile shift on the track to the NW has huge implications. A 50-mile shift to the east also has huge implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Eeyores calling it in already, nice,yea nothing ever changes 4 days out You've been staying stuff like this for over a month. It goes both ways. I understand things can change, but my thoughts aren't just based on current guidance. My gut just tells me this will be a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Really can't say much until the Euro/Euro Ens come out. There's no question this storm could come NW and be a monster for SNE but there's also the chance that it winds up slipping east a bit. All of the above are within the range of reasonable solutions at this juncture. My gut feeling is/has been a big storm so I'm watching this closely. Glad to hear that. Hope I'm wrong. We all know the deal...current consensus for a scraper, but it could change at this lead. Comes down to hunches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That's not bad at all. Almost dumbbells NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro a bit east with low but more prolific with QPF to the west. A decent snowstorm for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's wetter than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That's not bad at all. Almost dumbbells NNW. Yeah the low initially is pretty broad... almost an inverted trough that sets up at the surface as things go to town aloft. Strong QPF signal back to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Let the freakin' model play out guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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