JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The west side of this storm has some of the strongest modeled surface winds I've ever seen in a non-tropical system. Could we some crazy wave heights to the coast like we do with OTS hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The west side of this storm has some of the strongest modeled surface winds I've ever seen in a non-tropical system.60 knots sustained on the Cape in soundings I saw, pretty amazing as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The west side of this storm has some of the strongest modeled surface winds I've ever seen in a non-tropical system. The pressures on the Euro Ens members are obscene. A bunch in the 940s low 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Could we some crazy wave heights to the coast like we do with OTS hurricanes Well it just depends on how close it comes, but as modeled...some nasty seas for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Could we some crazy wave heights to the coast like we do with OTS hurricanesmoving too fast but certainly will be impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The pressures on the Euro Ens members are obscene. A bunch in the 940s low 950s.sick, analogy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i wonder what forky thinks of all this good consensus for a coastal whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 good consensus for a coastal whiff I would say scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I would say scraper. if you're not in the heavy banding you'll get non-accumulating light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 if you're not in the heavy banding you'll get non-accumulating light snow Agree, but which models don't show E Mass getting into heavy enough banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Eastern ma and especially cape cod could be ground zero for this event. That is a very strong storm, the winds would be impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Maybe not even till 00z..but if 12z does jump again..we can certainly feel even more confident If there isn't another jump NW at 12z, I'm writing this off for up here. That's just the way the snowball's rolled this year for the hinterlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If there isn't another jump NW at 12z, I'm writing this off for up here. That's just the way the snowball's rolled this year for the hinterlands. I would give it until sunday, To many times this winter we have had changes even inside 48 hrs so you really can't totally discount it, Today is a key day on the models to see which direction this moves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I would give it until sunday I give you high marks for patience, Jeff. At least it feels wintry. 29.7/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I give you high marks for patience, Jeff. At least it feels wintry. 29.7/22 lol, At this point there are a couple scenarios that can play out for this, Just need to give it more time before jumping in or out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If ony the entire pv drops in like the nam lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This just has the look and feel of one that we are going to be telling our grand kids about in all of SNE ...about the massive early spring storm that hit the whales and fish out over the Atlantic? Yes, it 'twill be quite the tale indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 if you're not in the heavy banding you'll get non-accumulating light snow I am going to save this post for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Any chance of OES enhancement with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS out to 66 looks a little flatter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yea it's going to be east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hoping for a negative tilt to be sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Does not look like the SL is east at all.... but not west either. It does scoot north pretty quickly though Edit: looks like E Maine will be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Pretty dead nuts on to the SLP placement at 90h vs 96h on the 06z run. Just not as wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You eastern donks are posting like its a funeral while its still a close ht and close enough for e ma not to bail yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Pretty dead nuts on to the SLP placement at 90h vs 96h on the 06z run. Just not as wound up. Yeah--not sure what the difference is strenght-wise. But I htink it's a fair bit less impressive. Ripping now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS out to 66 looks a little flatter?Western ridge looked better....trough looked deeper. It's just a little too late. That SPV came south again...it'd be nice if we could get some interaction with that and drop it in to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Western ridge looked better....trough looked deeper. It's just a little too late. That SPV came south again...it'd be nice if we could get some interaction with that and drop it in to some degree. Not dead yet. Pleasantly surprised to see post hr. 66. 0.1 - 0.25" in 6 hour intervals isn't going to cut it in late March though (esp. if it's daytime). Verbatim - Nantucket gets 18-24" while Ray gets a coating on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COASTAL STORM WHICH COULD HAVESIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGINGTHE CENTER OF THE STORM NOT TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE 40W/70NBENCHMARK WED MORNING...AND THE GFS OVER THE PAST DAY HAS TRENDEDNORTH TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CMC SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK.THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO FROM A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS STORMS THATENDED UP BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY CONFLUENCE AND STRONG HIGHPRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. INSTEAD...IF THIS IS A COMPLETEMISS...IT WILL PROBABLY HINGE MORE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OFPHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PAC NW REGION...SOMEENERGY DIVING DOWN FROM NW CANADA...AND POSSIBLY SOME ENERGYBREAKING OFF FROM THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED EAST OF HUDSON BAY. SUNYSTONY BROOK ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR BOTH ECMWF AND GEFSHAD EARLIER SUGGESTED THAT THE PAC NW ENERGY ARRIVING ONSHORE SUNDAYNIGHT WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON THE EVENTUAL NORTH-SOUTHUNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK. AT LEAST WITH THE GEFS ON THE 12ZRUN...IT IS NOW FOCUSING MORE ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWNFROM NW CANADA. IT HAS ALSO SHOWN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALARGE DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEANTRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE FARTHERNORTH.WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER SIGNAL OF SHORTWAVE PHASING AND/OR ANEARLIER CLOSING OF THE 500MB LOW BEFORE BEING MORE CONVINCED THATTHIS STORM WILL ACTUALLY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OFSIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE STORM WOULD OTHERWISE BE MOREPROGRESSIVE...NOTING ALSO A LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. GIVENRECENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...WOULD NOT BESURPRISED TO SEE A SLIGHT NW TRACK NUDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNSFOR THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE STORM TRACK HASNOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM THE 00Z SUITE...AND WE ARE NOW ONLY12 HOURS CLOSER TO AN EVENT THAT MAY START 4 DAYS FROM NOW. WILLTHEREFORE KEEP POPS CAPPED AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE EVENT.SHOULD MSLP FORECASTS PAN OUT...THIS WILL BE POWERFUL LOW WITHSTRONG WINDS AT LEAST FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. FORTUNATELY...WEWOULD BE IN BETWEEN A FULL AND NEW MOON...SO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDECYCLES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE. WITH THE CURRENTFORECAST TRACK JUST SE OF THE 40W/70N BENCHMARK...THIS WOULDPROBABLY BE AN ALL-SNOW EVENT WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMALTEMPERATURES.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM WEDS NIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY. TEMPS START TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH RISINGHEIGHTS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INVOF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ST.LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THEN BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY.A SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Being weaker (not sure if it's the reason why), it's spreading more qpf out this way which is nice. A little surprsied by today's blitz--had expected much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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