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Damage In Tolland

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With GFS being slightly more west of OP, there is a good chance the negative tilt occurs sooner. it's not something he missed, but more or less overlooked.

I'm quite aware of the bearing the negative tilt of the trough as on the final solution, after all, I am a meteorologist lol.  The fact that the ensemble still has quite a bit of spread is indicative of uncertainty of the final solution.  Not only that, the speed of the lead shortwave in the south also is important.  If it flies out too far ahead of the northern stream energy and is strong, the northern stream will not fully phase and bring the low pressure up the coast effectively.  

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Sunday is very important as consensus and clarity emerge and of course its RGEM wheelhouse.

I know people make a big deal about certain lead days when looking at potential storms, but idk, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  It's nice to be able to see mesoscale model solutions, I suppose, but is 12z Sunday a definitive model run compared to 00z Sunday morning or 00z Monday morning?  

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What a change of pace tonight has been so far. A month plus of models going to crap one way or another at this time frame for this area, hopefully this isn't a faux one cycle trend

So far, it's certainly an exciting turn of events. Stopping any eastward shifts tonight while still having room for (hopefully) improvement would be ideal.

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Definitely a better look at 500mb on the 00z GFS vs. the 18z GFS. 18z GFS looked a little odd...couple of mini vortmaxes over VA and NC but the 00z has one robust vortmax and solid pva off the NC/VA coast which leads to the better looking solution and makes more sense to me. Hopefully the Euro follows suit.

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