OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 With GFS being slightly more west of OP, there is a good chance the negative tilt occurs sooner. it's not something he missed, but more or less overlooked. I'm quite aware of the bearing the negative tilt of the trough as on the final solution, after all, I am a meteorologist lol. The fact that the ensemble still has quite a bit of spread is indicative of uncertainty of the final solution. Not only that, the speed of the lead shortwave in the south also is important. If it flies out too far ahead of the northern stream energy and is strong, the northern stream will not fully phase and bring the low pressure up the coast effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There's nothing inherently special about Sunday, either. There is no particular day when "we will know." Model skill increase at shorter lead times happens gradually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Sunday is very important as consensus and clarity emerge and of course its RGEM wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 nice GFS run for the Cape/ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Sunday is very important as consensus and clarity emerge and of course its RGEM wheelhouse. I know people make a big deal about certain lead days when looking at potential storms, but idk, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It's nice to be able to see mesoscale model solutions, I suppose, but is 12z Sunday a definitive model run compared to 00z Sunday morning or 00z Monday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like a nice phase at 78 hours at 500. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah gfs trended nicely, let's see what the rest does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 ok, deff better. i liked it out west, trough goes negative earlier. still time to keep on creeping closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 nice GFS run for the Cape/ENE Improvement from 18z, Its a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 nice GFS run for the Cape/ENEcame west enough to give me 6+,congrats Phil on Blizzard 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Kinda interesting that the 00z gfs dampens the western ridge and loses some of that retrograding PV chunk, but it more than makes up for it with the cleaner phase and the less downstream confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like a hurricane if you just looked at the pressure fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like a hurricane if you just looked at the pressure fields. soundings show 60 sustained on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nice improvement, tick that west another 50-75 miles and a lot of folks would enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Just a nuke, I'd lock it honestly, greed isn't always good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This would be a (debatable) fitting end to a Winter that is only lacking what could possibly be the most intense storm of the season. Tracking one last time before BD's till June kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If there has been any trend it is the fact that most models still show a potentially significant coastal storm. All I need 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Cmc is nice....crazy closed low at all levels at a nice location for a blizzard that is widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow! CMC is very nice indeed. It looks to be just east of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Any idea how the 00z Ukie looks? 12z was pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Any idea how the 00z Ukie looks? 12z was pretty nice. From other forums it's a big time hit. Most west of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow. I'm up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Man it would be perfect to stay up for the euro and the fact I'm in central time it would work but early start in the am so it will keep. GEFS look quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What a change of pace tonight has been so far. A month plus of models going to crap one way or another at this time frame for this area, hopefully this isn't a faux one cycle trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Going to bed before the Euro but leaning it comes in a little more amped and NW of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What a change of pace tonight has been so far. A month plus of models going to crap one way or another at this time frame for this area, hopefully this isn't a faux one cycle trend So far, it's certainly an exciting turn of events. Stopping any eastward shifts tonight while still having room for (hopefully) improvement would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Again and I want to stress this again... looking at deterministic solutions expect to discover a trend is just flat out silly... all deterministic solutions do is capture one potential solution of a probability distribution function (PDF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Definitely a better look at 500mb on the 00z GFS vs. the 18z GFS. 18z GFS looked a little odd...couple of mini vortmaxes over VA and NC but the 00z has one robust vortmax and solid pva off the NC/VA coast which leads to the better looking solution and makes more sense to me. Hopefully the Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The GEM is definitely not better than 00z last night or even 12z earlier today. Sure its stronger, but its also further offshore. 00z GEM tonight 12z Yesterday 00z Yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0z GGEM with a 958mb low is encouraging. I'll go out on a limb and say this trends closer on the models next 24 hours. Solely based on living in NE for many years, if a big coastal in March is consistently modeled, it often seems to come more W as we get closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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