CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Yep! Not stopping this pattern..congrats dca and NC on ur snowiest march on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Well it's just not good to have the thinking where past is indicative of future...we try to stress that...but I understand if people are frustrated. The thing is, the reason why DC got a storm and not us is totally different from the 3/3 deal. Sometime it works...look at winter 11-12...if you went warm and dry for every week and predicted that modeled threats would not materialize you'd have been right 95% of the time. So the deal with this pattern if you go with persistence, you'll only be wrong once. I've had .25 of an inch of QPF since 2/18...persistence could suggest that would continue or maybe we're due for a high QPF event...only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Sometime it works...look at winter 11-12...if you went warm and dry for every week and predicted that modeled threats would not materialize you'd have been right 95% of the time. So the deal with this pattern if you go with persistence, you'll only be wrong once. I've had .25 of an inch of QPF since 2/18...persistence could suggest that would continue or maybe we're due for a high QPF event...only time will tell. But it's not persistence if the reason why you are dry has to do with multiple reasons. In 11-12...we had a persistent AK vortex that literally did not change. IOW, you have been cold and dry for a few reasons...but it's not just the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 But it's not persistence if the reason why you are dry has to do with multiple reasons. In 11-12...we had a persistent AK vortex that literally did not change. IOW, you have been cold and dry for a few reasons...but it's not just the polar vortex. Lol, he got dryslotted almost the whole storm on 3/12...I guess that one doesn't count though when taking about suppression. It's been a 7-10 split this month. That usually doesn't happen because of some persistent underlying tendency...its essentially "unlucky" chaos amidst a pattern that could have easily walloped that are with a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Lol, he got dryslotted almost the whole storm on 3/12...I guess that one doesn't count though when taking about suppression. It's been a 7-10 split this month. That usually doesn't happen because of some persistent underlying tendency...its essentially "unlucky" chaos amidst a pattern that could have easily walloped that are with a snowstorm. I know...I think it just falls on deaf ears because everyone only cares about their backyard and when snow doesn't happen for a period of time...people just blame it on cold and dry etc. It's the opposite of that silly logic..."It snows where it wants to snow." Another awful term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 On the psychological front, I've completely transitioned from snow mode to spring mode after watching the MA get buried the last couple storms. Need the soccer/baseball fields to green-up and the golf courses to open. With this mentality, we are sure to see at least 1 or 2 more event down here on the CP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 On the psychological front, I've completely transitioned from snow mode to spring mode after watching the MA get buried the last couple storms. Need the soccer/baseball fields to green-up and the golf courses to open. With this mentality, we are sure to see at least 1 or 2 more event down here on the CP Yea once you disconnect mentally, something will pop in a pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 EURO is bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 956mb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 960mb 954mb at the peak, lol. A strong signal is there, but specific operational projections don't mean a whole lot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 954mb at the peak, lol. A strong signal is there, but specific operational projections don't mean a whole lot at this point. Yeah, Lol, Went back and looked and it was 954 mb, At hr 204 nice fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If there is going to be a model that has a blue bomb blizzard in fantasy range, by golly, let it be the ECMWF. There's no other model I'd rather have get my hopes up, as I know with quite certainty that it will let me down nice and easy, and with enough time to go through my 12 step recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If there is going to be a model that has a blue bomb blizzard in fantasy range, by golly, let it be the ECMWF. There's no other model I'd rather have get my hopes up, as I know with quite certainty that it will let me down nice and easy, and with enough time to go through my 12 step recovery. it does have some support from the canadian, but this is still fantasy at day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Lol...if ever the euro wanted to make a point wrt other guidance this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Must not allow myself to follow the day to day evolutions of a day 8 fantasy storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 This season I cringe at things beyond 3 days But fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 LOL at 965mb over Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 LOL at 965mb over Cape CodPhil gets sucked out to Yarmouth, England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Phil gets sucked out to Yarmouth, England The QPF queen in me would've hated that run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I have to go on a brief trip for work on 25th-26th so lets make it the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Nails BWI then OTS next run. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro ens have 1004mb low over the BM@192. Hr 204: 1000mb east of cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Lol total run snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I like my WeatherUnderground text forecast for next week Tuesday Night Periods of snow. Low near 20F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Wednesday Snow...heavy at times. High 32F. Winds NNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 8 to 12 inches. Wednesday Night Snow in the evening will transition to snow showers overnight. Low 19F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Lol total run snow If this doesn't verify or over perform I'm blaming you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If this doesn't verify or over perform I'm blaming you!xxx porn are you legal to view that? may have to delete it,illegal porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 That's as strong a qpf signal on the euro ensembles at this lead time as possible I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 That's as strong a qpf signal on the euro ensembles at this lead time as possible I think. I just want something substantial to quiet the "can't beat the suppresion pattern" crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS @ 180 has a really potent shortwave around the Lakes, we'll see if it turns the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Lol total run snow Screwed here between the 36-42" zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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