jbenedet Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still watching model ensembles plat a big role in the evolution of this storm chance here over New England as we move into Tuesday Night. Looks like most, if not all, models are starting to show 500mb axis shifting negative, which is a decent indication if any that this system will not pass harmlessly out to sea. I am not focusing on precipitation concentration (qpf) or exactly where the track is on models, because those are just simply averages and in no way represent the strength or exact track of a system. I blended together 4 models on a track probability map, this includes 18z GFS/12x ECMWF/18z NAVGEM/12z CMC and produced a contour map of where the models converge on low track probabilities. This is only a representation of where the low tracks, not the precipitation. http://weather-talk.net/32614-low-track-probabilities-updates-32114-7pm/ Good stuff. Thanks for that. Much easier on the eyes than trying to eye-ball details, one run vs. the other, and juxtaposing images on a single monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Whether this directly impacts SNE or not, one has to be a complete numb nut not to appreciate an image like this... That might actually be destructive for NS ... That is a more progressive blizzard of '78, displaced a bit to the east. Period. That mother of all storms had a 64mb peak pressure gradient (984/1048mb), this one has the exact, same gradient (964/1028mb)...just a 20 mb lower ambient pressure field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Good stuff. Thanks for that. Much easier on the eyes than trying to eye-ball details, one run vs. the other, and juxtaposing images on a single monitor. Pretty much why i made it, to give others a good idea about where concentrations of track probabilities were. Makes it much easier for me to reference when others are hammering on whether something makes it close or not. At this time, I think we really need to be careful here in Southern New England. Since these probabilities are non-biased, the trend is disturbing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 May want to cancel that boat trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Pretty much why i made it, to give others a good idea about where concentrations of track probabilities were. Makes it much easier for me to reference when others are hammering on whether something makes it close or not. At this time, I think we really need to be careful here in Southern New England. Since these probabilities are non-biased, the trend is disturbing to say the least. Interesting and nice interface. It's probably difficult, but is there a way for you to identify any model outliers that might be skewing (or optimistically, leading) the consensus? Your consensus SLP track has steadily shifted... but my impression was most models 12z/18z shifted slightly east. Like 18Z NAVGEM? As Tip noted, this jumped significantly west from its prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That is a more progressive blizzard of '78, displaced a bit to the east. Period. That mother of all storms had a 64mb peak pressure gradient (984/1048mb), this one has the exact, same gradient (964/1028mb)...just a 20 mb lower ambient pressure field. What did the Jan 2005 Cape shifter have for a pressure gradient?And I really don't see much whining in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I see this coming nw but how far? The west argues for it. I would feel confident in snowfall se of a bos/pvd line. Hopefully we bump up expectations as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Interesting and nice interface. It's probably difficult, but is there a way for you to identify any model outliers that might be skewing (or optimistically, leading) the consensus? Your consensus SLP track has steadily shifted... but my impression was most models 12z/18z shifted slightly east. Like 18Z NAVGEM? As Tip noted, this jumped significantly west from its prior runs. Well, the easiest way to notice is by looking east of concentration, if you start to see red, it means ouliers are causing consensus to the east. I wlll make a graphic right now explaining how to read the chart! Thanks for the heads up! I would like everyone to enjoy the work I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well, the easiest way to notice is by looking east of concentration, if you start to see red, it means ouliers are causing consensus to the east. I wlll make a graphic right now explaining how to read the chart! Thanks for the heads up! I would like everyone to enjoy the work I do. That is really cool. Were you on here before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What did the Jan 2005 Cape shifter have for a pressure gradient? And I really don't see much whining in here Jan 05: I'm not certain this was peak, but it was close to this: 54mb 1032 / 978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That is really cool. Were you on here before? No, i just learned about this place last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No, i just learned about this place last night Some really good mets on here, awesome hobbyists, and us weeniesWelcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Might be slightly confusing at first, but the overall idea is to follow the central track by drawing a line over the highest concentration of tracks. The heavuier the colors to the east or west (N or S ) of this line, the more weight the Major runs are putting on that track. Since the probabilities blend, the number will drop quickly once outside of an outlier track, hence the lines with be greatly concentrated together on that side of the track. Also you will notice the red showing up near nova Scotia and they jump from median line. This essentially tells you that most tracks are showing up too far east on model averages. hence, they throw weight to the east and compensate by tossing a few ensemble tracks back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I've seen cases where its very far NW of other guidance and ends up totally out to lunch but that seems to be more on SW flow or Miller B type events, when its NW on this sort of system more often than not its a red flag.A good red flag as in it could be on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A good red flag as in it could be on to something? Red flags as in, the models are struggling with something and need more data. Not red flag as in "batten down the hatches". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Some really good mets on here, awesome hobbyists, and us weenies Welcome Thank you I am simply a hobbyist at the moment going to school for meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GEFS members are a bit meh at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GEFS members are a bit meh at this time. They are waiting on the negative tilt basically. how soon it occurs is what makes the forecast. Wont know for sure till sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 They are waiting on the negative tilt basically. how soon it occurs is what makes the forecast. Wont know for sure till sunday. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 ok Essentially ECMWF goes negative into the tuesday PM time frame, GFS holds back till wednesday Midday. Push these back by 6 hours, and we get HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 ok Can't believe you missed that stuff, c'mon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Can't believe you missed that stuff, c'mon! With GFS being slightly more west of OP, there is a good chance the negative tilt occurs sooner. it's not something he missed, but more or less overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 With GFS being slightly more west of OP, there is a good chance the negative tilt occurs sooner. it's not something he missed, but more or less overlooked.I think you're preaching to the choir for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think you're preaching to the choir for the most part. Despite that, preaching I will do. It's not in my nature to assume everyone has the same information at the same exact moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 LOL at some of today's see you later posts. We've got all weekend for this to play out. Wasn't it only 3 days out when the Euro started the NW trend in earnest on the 3/12 storm and never looked back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 LOL at some of today's see you later posts. We've got all weekend for this to play out. Wasn't it only 3 days out when the Euro started the NW trend in earnest on the 3/12 storm and never looked back? Agreed, thats why i said 12z sunday is where it's at lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Welcome Weather-Talk.Net! A nice addition to the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Welcome Weather-Talk.Net! A nice addition to the forums. Thank you I hope some of the insights I can help provide will be useful, and not start many arguements lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nam nailed my last storm,lol, watch RGEM Sunday. Plenty o time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nam nailed my last storm,lol, watch RGEM Sunday. Plenty o time left Sunday is moving day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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