40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Any significant analogs at this timeframe? 3/3 and this past week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 3/3 and this past week lmao….this is a great post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still 'rea with you? Peeps just having fun I know, but I am being serious. This is a chaotic time where models tend to sway and wobble around. I don't care what the past dictates. I'm not saying expect it to come west, but this is the time when things happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 some classic meltdowns in this thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Im not melting down....I checked out a few weeks ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still 'rea with you? Peeps just having fun Yeah well this is supposed to be the discussion thread for this storm...the jpegs are funny, but they often turn the thread into a whine-fest about emotional swings in the model runs...and these threads are not really for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I know, but I am being serious. This is a chaotic time where models tend to sway and wobble around. I don't care what the past dictates. I'm not saying expect it to come west, but this is the time when things happen True dat. But I don't think anyone is 100% buying what one run is saying as the gospel truth This hobby can be fun and frustrating at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm just not buying the whiffs. Yall can quote me on this and bump it over the weekend to tell me i was wrong....cuz "i just dont giv a f@(|>". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Grasping at straws? Maybe, but 18z gfs seems a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Grasping at straws? Maybe, but 18z gfs seems a bit better The 18Z GFS is about 100 miles too far east with the surface low from 96-115 if you ask me, thats of course assuming its upper level depictions are right but if you look at what it has at 96 hours off the Carolinas someone tell me how in the heck that low can escape as far east as it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 18Z GFS is about 100 miles too far east with the surface low from 96-115 if you ask me, thats of course assuming its upper level depictions are right but if you look at what it has at 96 hours off the Carolinas someone tell me how in the heck that low can escape as far east as it does. Whether this directly impacts SNE or not, one has to be a complete numb nut not to appreciate an image like this... That might actually be destructive for NS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Damn that 18z GFS solution is ridiculous. Could that even happen? Seems overdone to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Damn that 18z GFS solution is ridiculous. Could that even happen? Seems overdone to me. What some may not realize what they are looking at, the ambient surface pressure is well above standards and approximately 1020mb, with the arc of that anticyclone at or just over 1030 at the apex. The core of that pressure nadir is down around 962mb (probably). It staggers, ...or should, the implication for wind. Forget everything else for a moment.. The index finger rule is 1kt per 1mb, so somewhere during balance geostrophy there's got to be one f sick llv jet core, with gust potential around it easily into the range of hurricane force in that depiction. 68kt differentials for extra-tropical cyclones something usually reserved for the GOA or N Atlantic. I recall in 2000 (2001) a 948mb winter storm plowed into NS , but I don't know what the ambient surface pressure was with that one. It's also why I cringe when I hear people try to down spin Feb 1978 because it only made 976mb or whatever it was.. .It was f abut to a 1050 high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Whether this directly impacts SNE or not, one has to be a complete numb nut not to appreciate an image like this... That might actually be destructive for NS ... My eyes struggling with the lines. Does that say 942? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What some may not realize what they are looking at, the ambient surface pressure is well above standards and approximately 1020mb, with the arc of that anticyclone at or just over 1030 at the apex. The core of that pressure nadir is down around 962mb (probably). It staggers, ...or should, the implication for wind. Forget everything else for a moment.. The index finger rule is 1kt per 1mb, so somewhere during balance geostrophy there's got to be one f sick llv jet core, with gust potential around it easily into the range of hurricane force in that depiction. 68kt differentials for extra-tropical cyclones something usually reserved for the GOA or N Atlantic. I recall in 2000 (2001) a 948mb winter storm plowed into NS , but I don't know what the ambient surface pressure was with that one. It's also why I cringe when I hear people try to down spin Feb 1978 because it only made 976mb or whatever it was.. .It was f abut to a 1050 high! I think 12/26/04 ultimately dipped into the 940s up in Eastern Canada but since that storm mainly only hit immediate coastal areas nobody recalls it being that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Fwi eye-rolling worth ... the 18z NAVGEM substantially impacts with wind and snow as far west as the Berkshires... So there you have at least one hell-bent-for-leather progressive biased piece of sh!t of a model, overcoming it's own stink toward more N-S amplitude. who knows - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 My eyes struggling with the lines. Does that say 942? 964 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I am surprised with speculation here. I just got here and all i see if people formulating ideas off of run to run. That is very dangerous to do. One only needs to look at 500 mb, and it's orientation to know how close this thing really is to us. The fact that we write off the storm idea before it actually develops is a bit disturbing as well. One more thing, please don't bash other members for stating their opinions on things, I am not always right so neither are you. Just collaborate and try to make the best of the information we have now. kind of why I even came here in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Two features that seems to correlate with how far east cyclogenesis occurs: 1) degree of ridging over western US: comparing the closer vs. OTS runs, ridging already less sharp by Mon 0z (54h) on the further OTS solutions 2) placement of ULL around Hudson Bay: compare the placement at Wed 6z on the better runs (eg. 0z GFS) vs. further OTS runs (18z GFS)... huge difference. In the further OTS runs, the ULL is much further southeast into southern Hudson Bay, and dampens the trough a bit over the east keeping flow just a little more progressive. In the better runs (eg. 0z GFS), this ULL is further northeast allowing a sharper trough into the northeast, and we have a closer solution. We see the trends, but not sure these and other features will be resolved until we get better data Sat-Sun. It's really damn close... I don't think the better solutions can be written off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I am surprised with speculation here. I just got here and all i see if people formulating ideas off of run to run. That is very dangerous to do. One only needs to look at 500 mb, and it's orientation to know how close this thing really is to us. The fact that we write off the storm idea before it actually develops is a bit disturbing as well. One more thing, please don't bash other members for stating their opinions on things, I am not always right so neither are you. Just collaborate and try to make the best of the information we have now. kind of why I even came here in the first place. Not sure where you are getting this impression... I am not speaking for any moderators, but it seems pretty clear...obviously so that the issue is the whining and complaining, particularly about something no one has any power to change, so the futility of it only adds to the annoyance. No one's opinions have been outrightly "bashed" -- at least that I've seen. I've been on line more than normal because of this active pattern, and merely do not recall any suppression of opinions -- just warnings about over developed negative hyperbole and the use of dumb emoticons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Two features that seems to correlate with how far east cyclogenesis occurs: 1) degree of ridging over western US: comparing the closer vs. OTS runs, ridging already less sharp by Mon 0z (54h) on the further OTS solutions 2) placement of ULL around Hudson Bay: compare the placement at Wed 6z on the better runs (eg. 0z GFS) vs. further OTS runs (18z GFS)... huge difference. In the further OTS runs, the ULL is much further southeast into southern Hudson Bay, and dampens the trough a bit over the east keeping flow just a little more progressive. In the better runs (eg. 0z GFS), this ULL is further northeast allowing a sharper trough into the northeast, and we have a closer solution. We see the trends, but not sure these and other features will be resolved until we get better data Sat-Sun. It's really damn close... I don't think the better solutions can be written off at all. I might ad a 3rd bullet point here. 3) the correct modulation of the western Atlantic; roll-out ridging (s/w) that propagates out ahead of the trough, particularly as it enters its greatest depth. The superposition of that translating ridge node over the semi-permantic west Atlantic height wall sometimes feeds back on a west track correction with mid level jet features ... which of course thus directs a more west sfc evolution, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Fwi eye-rolling worth ... the 18z NAVGEM substantially impacts with wind and snow as far west as the Berkshires... So there you have at least one hell-bent-for-leather progressive biased piece of sh!t of a model, overcoming it's own stink toward more N-S amplitude. who knows - I've seen cases where its very far NW of other guidance and ends up totally out to lunch but that seems to be more on SW flow or Miller B type events, when its NW on this sort of system more often than not its a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Btw when DIT bailed out the other day, it was followed by decent hits at 12z. This morning when he is "feeling this one", we whiff at 12z. This is what i was getting at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still watching model ensembles plat a big role in the evolution of this storm chance here over New England as we move into Tuesday Night. Looks like most, if not all, models are starting to show 500mb axis shifting negative, which is a decent indication if any that this system will not pass harmlessly out to sea. I am not focusing on precipitation concentration (qpf) or exactly where the track is on models, because those are just simply averages and in no way represent the strength or exact track of a system. I blended together 4 models on a track probability map, this includes 18z GFS/12x ECMWF/18z NAVGEM/12z CMC and produced a contour map of where the models converge on low track probabilities. This is only a representation of where the low tracks, not the precipitation. http://weather-talk.net/32614-low-track-probabilities-updates-32114-7pm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Whether this directly impacts SNE or not, one has to be a complete numb nut not to appreciate an image like this... That might actually be destructive for NS ... It would be destructive for Nova Scotia, this setup would likely rival White Juan in 2004, which crushed parts of Nova Scotia with 20-40" of snow. CFB Shearwater recorded almost 38" of snow with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I might ad a 3rd bullet point here. 3) the correct modulation of the western Atlantic; roll-out ridging (s/w) that propagates out ahead of the trough, particularly as it enters its greatest depth. The superposition of that translating ridge node over the semi-permantic west Atlantic height wall sometimes feeds back on a west track correction with mid level jet features ... which of course thus directs a more west sfc evolution, as well. The other obvious point in addition to these larger scale features can be appreciated just prior to cyclogenesis. That is the varying emphasis of different pieces of energy rounding the base of the trough... Look at Wed 0z: in the further OTS tracks, a lead piece is significantly stronger and ejects further east. In the better solutions, the lead piece is weaker and much more energy hangs back, with ensuing cyclogenesis occurring further west. Needless to say, subtle changes here, as well, and you have huge changes in impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The other obvious point in addition to these larger scale features can be appreciated just prior to cyclogenesis. That is the varying emphasis of different pieces of energy rounding the base of the trough... Look at Wed 0z: in the further OTS tracks, a lead piece is significantly stronger and ejects further east. In the better solutions, the lead piece is weaker and much more energy hangs back, with ensuing cyclogenesis occurring further west. Needless to say, subtle changes here, as well, and you have huge changes in impact. This is why people are not writing off the storm idea here into New England. Certainly the tiniest changes to the west could easily changes whether areas get a light snow event, or a giant smack up side the head with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 And needless to say, this has me particularly concerned about New England when the 18z GFS does this to you. Very similar on the ECMWF but does not close it off. Even the slightly shift NW of 30-50 miles would be huge for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Good discussion peoples. For me, alot has to do with the ridge out west....and how quickly we can get the trough negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Enjoy the upcoming wiff, its the only wiff we've got...not including the previous, multiple wiffs weve had this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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