RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Not any further east. Thats a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Not any further east. That's good to hear, I'd say perhaps it's honing in on the eastern goalpost, but I still expect quite a few more wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Could have been worse I suppose. Would like too start seeing some ticks west Within the next few runs. Would hate for this to be a close miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 These threads are unreadable. We now also have a long wave pattern that favors the Mid Atlantic and NNE but screws SNE as well. Just a marvel of science right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It's not really clear why the models are "stretching" the flow so much -- like they are trying to force progression into the flow. Be that as it may, the +NAO really offers a ton of argument for this to wind up left of the 12z operational blends. Also, for those riding the Euro, it's wheel house time frame for our longitude is < D5 .. not actually ON D5. Would not be surprising to see tomorrow's position be different than these 00z and 12z OTS looks. Many examples of late west correction pummels in the annals folks. Shallow memories polluting threads ... Fool's Day 1997, Boxing Day 2010, January 2005... All these majors really didn't get nailed until < 48 hours out. I think the best folks should do is take the ensemble means, and take note of the direction of the uncertainty/spread. If it shades west, the storm will end up there more than half the time. You get sick of advising this stuff... Easier just to just ignore the opines and whines of the One Flew Over The Cookoo's Nest ward of people that cannot seem to penetrate this logic into their minds. Oh, they seem to acknowledge it, ...only until the next run/cycle, when we find ourselves rinsing and repeating through this same tired mantra about not panicking, and why, all over and over and over and over again. I think truth be told, folks just want a big storm on the charts at all times, and when not, they are like spoiled 5-year olds that can't have their candy. Whah whah whah. Emotion is the absence of objective rationalism, and that is why this repetition has to go on; it's because people tap the weather rod into their emotional brain, and so that is what bleeds out of them most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 These threads are unreadable. We now also have a long wave pattern that favors the Mid Atlantic and NNE but screws SNE as well. Just a marvel of science right there. What I'm seeing is the s/w I mentioned up near arctic circle. The 12z ECMWF yesterday was taking most of the shortwave energy and bring it east to help amplify the eastern US trough. The 00z ECMWF started splitting the energy more towards the Aleutian low, and the 12z ECMWF has continued this pattern. I know its oversimplifying the overall pattern, but that shortwave is the key and if most of the energy gets diverted westward into the Aleutian low, its game over for a more amplified closer to the coast solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yikes. Ugly run of the euro for mby. Looks a tad breezy. Seems like it went a touch east, at least at my latitude. Hard to tell with the free maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If this progressive ... fast appeal to the runs/blend verifies, the dailies are going to change with extreme rapidity over the next week. For four solid days worth of runs the Euro has been hammering a pattern roll out (how permanent, remains to be seen), with an already positive NAO going even more positive, at the same time the PNA flat lines. Not much left for winter in that sort of regime when the Equinox is behind you. 7 days from now, 55-60+ could whiplash our region. Take note of the GL western OV wfropa. It's been vastly more consistent than any preceding storm, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It's not really clear why the models are "stretching" the flow so much -- like they are trying to force progression into the flow. Be that as it may, the +NAO really offers a ton of argument for this to wind up left of the 12z operational blends. The flow is "stretching" because the longwave pattern in the Pacific is becoming more zonal in the medium range as the Aleutian low kicks out shortwaves into the western US. The NAO doesn't really offer much guidance on how far east or west a particular surface cyclone will go. Keep in mind the NAO index into the future is model derived and will often be a byproduct of the flow rearrangement a baroclinic system causes. So the rapid phase change of the NAO is primarily due to the baroclinic cyclone, not the other way around. In my opinion its much more useful to focus on the flow upstream rather than the flow downstream. Yes blocking has an impact, but it often gets overused to explain the development of such cyclones when its often the byproduct of such cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What I'm seeing is the s/w I mentioned up near arctic circle. The 12z ECMWF yesterday was taking most of the shortwave energy and bring it east to help amplify the eastern US trough. The 00z ECMWF started splitting the energy more towards the Aleutian low, and the 12z ECMWF has continued this pattern. I know its oversimplifying the overall pattern, but that shortwave is the key and if most of the energy gets diverted westward into the Aleutian low, its game over for a more amplified closer to the coast solution. Yeah those are good obs. My post was about former comments about a pattern that made no sense, yet was stated. I agree with what you put forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The criticism of those posting what models are showing is pretty lame Not sure what is in your craw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The criticism of those posting what models are showing is pretty lame Not sure what is in your craw That's not the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There is no trend when models waver. Why would anyone live and die by each run over 5 days out? Signs of a not so good meteorologist. Thank you. One of my pet peeves is people calling the movement from one model run to another a trend. One run to the next is a different solution. Trends require more than two runs showing changes in the same direction. But I digress. What a beast of a storm. I'm gonna be watching this closely. Could have an impact here. You and Nantucket Waves may be the only ones who need to. 33.1/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I heart you tippy. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Btw when DIT bailed out the other day, it was followed by decent hits at 12z. This morning when he is "feeling this one", we whiff at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When it comes to model *trends* a general rule of thumb I heard was: one is an abberation, two is a coincendence and three is a trend. As for the potential system for next week. I have admittedly been half paying attention from the bleachers. (It's time for spring). And from my perspective in the cheap seats there is fairly good agreement between the ensembles for a track that is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When it comes to model *trends* a general rule of thumb I heard was: one is an abberation, two is a coincendence and three is a trend. As for the potential system for next week. I have admittedly been half paying attention from the bleachers. (It's time for spring). And from my perspective in the cheap seats there is fairly good agreement between the ensembles for a track that is offshore. You get cheap seats. I'm finding the parking lot full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It's not really clear why the models are "stretching" the flow so much -- like they are trying to force progression into the flow. Be that as it may, the +NAO really offers a ton of argument for this to wind up left of the 12z operational blends. Also, for those riding the Euro, it's wheel house time frame for our longitude is < D5 .. not actually ON D5. Would not be surprising to see tomorrow's position be different than these 00z and 12z OTS looks. Many examples of late west correction pummels in the annals folks. Shallow memories polluting threads ... Fool's Day 1997, Boxing Day 2010, January 2005... All these majors really didn't get nailed until < 48 hours out. I think the best folks should do is take the ensemble means, and take note of the direction of the uncertainty/spread. If it shades west, the storm will end up there more than half the time. You get sick of advising this stuff... Easier just to just ignore the opines and whines of the One Flew Over The Cookoo's Nest ward of people that cannot seem to penetrate this logic into their minds. Oh, they seem to acknowledge it, ...only until the next run/cycle, when we find ourselves rinsing and repeating through this same tired mantra about not panicking, and why, all over and over and over and over again. I think truth be told, folks just want a big storm on the charts at all times, and when not, they are like spoiled 5-year olds that can't have their candy. Whah whah whah. Emotion is the absence of objective rationalism, and that is why this repetition has to go on; it's because people tap the weather rod into their emotional brain, and so that is what bleeds out of them most of the time. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The flow is "stretching" because the longwave pattern in the Pacific is becoming more zonal in the medium range as the Aleutian low kicks out shortwaves into the western US. The NAO doesn't really offer much guidance on how far east or west a particular surface cyclone will go. Keep in mind the NAO index into the future is model derived and will often be a byproduct of the flow rearrangement a baroclinic system causes. So the rapid phase change of the NAO is primarily due to the baroclinic cyclone, not the other way around. In my opinion its much more useful to focus on the flow upstream rather than the flow downstream. Yes blocking has an impact, but it often gets overused to explain the development of such cyclones when its often the byproduct of such cyclones. It's among the more stochastic teleconnectors there are, with often intra-weekly time scale mode changes, but that is strictly the reason it's guidance value is a minimum. The value I am talking about is the straight up correlation between -NAO and suppressed storm tracks, vs +NAO and polarward migrating systems through the GL. There's not much room there for debate. If we want to argue that the persistent +NAO, and that forecast by any tool currently commissioned is false, than so be it. I don't have an opinion on what the NAO is actually going to be like. *BUT* if it is positive, that further SE tracks are in fact less correlated. 'Coure, no correlation is 1::1 in this business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Any significant analogs at this timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro ensembles following suit. We'll need improvement by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yeah, Euro a tic east of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro ensembles following suit. We'll need improvement by tomorrow. Yup, was hoping they would come in west. Not a great look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yeah, Euro a tic east of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 lol that would be fitting if we end up missing south-north-east this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Man, what a shame to have an epic bomb so close, yet so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yeah, Euro a tic east of the OP lol, Still plenty of time, Just not sold yet if we get this far enough west up here, Not a big fan of the Miller A's, I will wait it out until sunday or even 0z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Guys, just give it two more runs before the silly jpegs come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Guys, just give it two more runs before the silly jpegs come out.Still 'rea with you? Peeps just having fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Guys, just give it two more runs before the silly jpegs come out. Man i am not for one bit thinking this is going east like its showing, the jpegs? You mean mother of god posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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