dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I think if folks used the BM to reference where the low tracks, Rather then just a general it went in one direction or another, Whether it be East, Over it or West of it, Most on here would have a better sense to what may be expected for the region based on any given run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Storm looks pretty good IMO. Not sure why people are getting all worked up over some op runs this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If the Euro took a good jog eastward (say 100 miles) at 12z here, then I think it would be of legit concern. We are still far enough out to trend it into a hit...but close enough now that if we start extending the eastward envelope of solutions, we begin to run out of time to bring it back. This is model jargon of course....the ultimate solution is going to depend very much on some nuances in the flow that are difficult to predict right now, but become slightly clearer with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Storm looks pretty good IMO. Not sure why people are getting all worked up over some op runs this far out. Well, it does look good, deep, etc on the recent runs... But verbatim they do not bring much snow to many people. Am I hanging my hat on them? Not at this point. I like the westward move it makes toward the end of the GFS...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If the Euro took a good jog eastward (say 100 miles) at 12z here, then I think it would be of legit concern. We are still far enough out to trend it into a hit...but close enough now that if we start extending the eastward envelope of solutions, we begin to run out of time to bring it back. This is model jargon of course....the ultimate solution is going to depend very much on some nuances in the flow that are difficult to predict right now, but become slightly clearer with each run. The time change a couple of weeks ago is annoying me today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Storm looks pretty good IMO. Not sure why people are getting all worked up over some op runs this far out. Well some have been screwed over the past 30 days so they feel like they need to have a snowstorm to keep their sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Storm looks pretty good IMO. Not sure why people are getting all worked up over some op runs this far out. Yea, "on paper", there is yet to be much cause for concern. Like I said, I'm just hedging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yea, "on paper", there is yet to be much cause for concern. Like I said, I'm just hedging. Seems like a typical D5 threat for a "big one" - the pieces are there but whether they come together remains a question. We really won't know until later tomorrow or Sunday morning if this one has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The dispute is probably that some are jumping to conclusions based on little data and large error bars....basically bad science. This isn't speaking for everyone though...some are leaning one way or the other...a more conservative approach like that is usually the way to go at this time range. We actually haven't had a model run whiff New England yet on this 12z suite. So I certainly wouldn't be ruling out anything. I agree, if we started too see large shifts east, it would be concerning, but as you said there hasn't been a solution yet to leave all of new england high and dry. I think people see one model go east some, and they start making irrational conclusions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Does anyone have precip maps for the UKMET at 120hr? The 12z run looks good at H5 and with slp:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Does anyone have precip maps for the UKMET at 120hr? The 12z run looks good at H5 and with slp:: You don't need qpf maps to know that's a multi footer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I agree, if we started too see large shifts east, it would be concerning, but as you said there hasn't been a solution yet to leave all of new england high and dry. I think people see one model go east some, and they start making irrational conclusions Well, it wasn't just 1 model... GFS has done a couple of eastern ticks... the Euro at 0z was east a bit. No big moves yet, so that is good. At 5+ days out it is no big deal. At least there is something brewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Does anyone have precip maps for the UKMET at 120hr? The 12z run looks good at H5 and with slp:: Pretty irrelevant this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well, it wasn't just 1 model... GFS has done a couple of eastern ticks... the Euro at 0z was east a bit. No big moves yet, so that is good. At 5+ days out it is no big deal. At least there is something brewing Congrats on your ovc skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Just Caught On top this storm. GFS last night had 20" in 6 hours in the sea?? Daaaaaaaaamn. What a run. Seems to be basically staying the course. As long as a storm is there we're good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Congrats on your ovc skies. lol... that has been the case often enough this season. No biggie. Still skiing...there was somehow still snow on my roof this morning. Probably gone now. Speaking of overcast skies, I had my students build solar cookers recently and they went to test them out this morning. BOX had mostly sunny in their forecast for today several days in a row. Instead, virtually no direct sun... big wind....disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well, it wasn't just 1 model... GFS has done a couple of eastern ticks... the Euro at 0z was east a bit. No big moves yet, so that is good. At 5+ days out it is no big deal. At least there is something brewing Yeah I'm more interested in the big moves right now. If we start to see wholesale bailing of close and big solutions, I would be conncerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Only out to 84 hours but I'm not liking the early euro look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 lol... that has been the case often enough this season. No biggie. Still skiing...there was somehow still snow on my roof this morning. Probably gone now. Speaking of overcast skies, I had my students build solar cookers recently and they went to test them out this morning. BOX had mostly sunny in their forecast for today several days in a row. Instead, virtually no direct sun... big wind....disaster Other than the sporadic cold days the past week, it's full on Spring in Taunton. My crocuses are pretty close to blooming. Snow imby is the furthest thing from my mind. If I had a choice, I'd rather a blockbuster than some nuisance advisory/warning snow. Ice is mostly gone on the ponds I've seen. Snow is gone save for a few isolated piles from a plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yes lets just completely forget the huge northward shift the ECMWF, GFS, CMC and others made on the March 12-13 storm in the last 3-4 days. The fact of the matter is, the shortwave 500 hPa energy that is going to drive this cyclogenesis event is still bottled up near the North Pole where few radiosonde observations or plane derived observations are made. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014032112/gem_z500_vort_namer.html The most critical part of the forecast is in the 24-48 hour range, because you see this shortwave split as one piece of energy goes to reinforcing the Aleutian low (which later plays kicker to our big amplified trough next week). The other piece plays a key role in the rapid trough amplification into the eastern US. How this interaction plays out is absolutely key. While there are obviously a spectrum of solutions these are the two most extreme outcomes: 1) most of the energy goes into the Aleutian low, little shortwave energy contributes to downstream trough amplification in the eastern US... relatively weak storm OTS or non-existent. 2) most of the energy goes into the shortwave that barrels southeastward towards the eastern US and contributes to a very dynamic cyclogenesis event. Without as much kicker energy into the Aleutian low the western ridge builds stronger and allows for a more meridional track of a very powerful surface cyclone (sub 970 hPa). This would be the solution that most of the northeast cashes in big. Obviously most of the models are somewhere in between, but I think its pretty important to watch what is happening up there because it has direct implications on the model forecasts the next couple of days. Models won't be able to forecast how the MCS evolves 5 days in advance, but they should be able to key on how impressive this shortwave digging into the eastern US will be after it resolves this complicated split over far northwestern Canada the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looks better vs 0z now though 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Only out to 84 hours but I'm not liking the early euro look. Me either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At least it is trending closer vs 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Does anyone have precip maps for the UKMET at 120hr? The 12z run looks good at H5 and with slp:: Famous last words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still can't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 968 38/68. Still work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What are the (if any) changes from 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So tantalizingly close... my kingdom for a little block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What are the (if any) changes from 0z? Not any further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm not at all sold on a whiff and it's way too early for anyone else to be. We're missing by 40-50 150 miles on a. D5 prog folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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