Tornadomachine Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Tick, tick, tick 12z GFS 06z GFS There can be no further dispute that the storm ticked east this run. Time is running out for an easterly solution. I give one more day before mass towel tossing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Time for this to start coming west now. Not all at once, but at least stop the ticks S and E. Well gfs hasnt ticked s and e really. If anything it was way se before yesterdays run, then ticked nw yesterday but the euro ticked se last night. Anyway you slice it, theres been alot of ticking going on....and if euro doesnt tick nw today theres gonna be a number of folks ticked off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Tick, tick, tick 12z GFS 06z GFS There can be no further dispute that the storm ticked east this run. Time is running out for an easterly solution. I give one more day before mass towel tossing. Yea ur right but Thats typical model noise and the fact we are still 4/5 days out, that isnt drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Tick, tick, tick 12z GFS 06z GFS There can be no further dispute that the storm ticked east this run. Time is running out for an easterly solution. I give one more day before mass towel tossing. The shift was meaningless in the context of where we are right now. But you certainly wouldn't want to see that like 4 or 5 runs in a row. Scrapers at this time range are managable...if we start getting full whiffs though this cycle and 00z tonight, then I think its a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Correct. Everything moving too fast west to east in upper levels and even the bombing system gets it's act together too slowly. We'll see if this is a trend. All anyone needs to know. Matches the overall tenor of the season quite well, and I expect no different. We've had a couple of rainers, now its time for a whiff before spring starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 All anyone needs to know. Matches the overall tenor of the season quite well, and I expect no different. We've had a couple of rainers, now its time for a whiff before spring starts. We had a couple of whiffs to the south too, don't forget the St. Patties day mess. DC was loving that one. Good point on the early timeframe, just pointing out the slight tick. I'm really, really hoping for a big one to close out the season, but my gut makes me nervous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We had a couple of whiffs to the south too, don't forget the St. Patties day mess. DC was loving that one. Good point on the early timeframe, just pointing out the slight tick. I'm really, really hoping for a big one to close out the season, but my gut makes me nervous... 3/3 whiffed south as well. We've been on a cold streak...but those systems have nothing to do with this one thankfully. Nuances in the flow will decide the fate of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I meant that we've been oscillating between whiffs and rainers.....since we've had a couple of rainers consecutively, we're due for a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1158 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A CNTRL-ERN CONUS COLD SURGE AND RAPID/DEEP WRN ATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT BOTH SUFFICIENTLY EXTREME FOR LATE MARCH TO BE OBSERVED TYPICALLY ONLY ONCE EVERY 10-20 YEARS. MEANWHILE THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN ERN PAC TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WRN-CNTRL STATES WILL ENCOURAGE A RAPID MODERATION DOWNSTREAM SO THAT BY NEXT FRI AN UNUSUALLY LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 SHOULD SEE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.INTO DAY 6 THU... RECENT CONTINUITY AND/OR TRENDS PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT TO THE LATEST MAJORITY CLUSTER OF THE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN FOR THE MON-WED ERN CONUS TROUGH EVOLUTION/RAPID WRN ATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS THE ERN PAC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 FRI THE 06Z GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH BOTH THE TROUGH REACHING THE CNTRL CONUS AND UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN PAC... FAVORING ITS EXCLUSION BY THAT TIME..." I am sure there are some objective minds amongst us, who can see the darkly humorous connotation of a 1 in a 20 year WHIFF ba hahahhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Canadian East...not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Canadian East...not looking good. Crushes Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The NavGEM agrees 100% with all the other guidance, you could even argue its more west.....#1 sign this is going to change alot in the next 24-48 hours...either all guidance is going to move towards this being a total miss or an outright bomb up and down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ggem Is east as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1158 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014 VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014 ...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES... THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A CNTRL-ERN CONUS COLD SURGE AND RAPID/DEEP WRN ATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT BOTH SUFFICIENTLY EXTREME FOR LATE MARCH TO BE OBSERVED TYPICALLY ONLY ONCE EVERY 10-20 YEARS. MEANWHILE THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN ERN PAC TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WRN-CNTRL STATES WILL ENCOURAGE A RAPID MODERATION DOWNSTREAM SO THAT BY NEXT FRI AN UNUSUALLY LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 SHOULD SEE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. INTO DAY 6 THU... RECENT CONTINUITY AND/OR TRENDS PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT TO THE LATEST MAJORITY CLUSTER OF THE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN FOR THE MON-WED ERN CONUS TROUGH EVOLUTION/RAPID WRN ATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS THE ERN PAC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 FRI THE 06Z GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH BOTH THE TROUGH REACHING THE CNTRL CONUS AND UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN PAC... FAVORING ITS EXCLUSION BY THAT TIME..." I am sure there are some objective minds amongst us, who can see the darkly humorous connotation of a 1 in a 20 year WHIFF ba hahahhaha Largest late-season event since 1997, and it will whiff. Fitting ending to the season, as we segue to tulips shortly thereafter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That uncle picture is pretty nice. Too bad uncles crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm not at all sold on a whiff and it's way too early for anyone else to be. We're missing by 40-50 miles on a. D5 prog folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I think it would be a little concerning if we see the Euro tic east at 12z, Its been pretty consistent being further to the western side its last several runs as the 0z has been east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ggem Is east as well I'd take that solution in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 People posting like cmc is a whiff..,,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looks like a whiff to me outside of Cape Cod, and it's moving east with the rest of guidance so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'd take that solution in a heartbeat Same here lol. Just noting it did head easy from its prior run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm not at all sold on a whiff and it's way too early for anyone else to be. We're missing by 40-50 miles on a. D5 prog folks. Its not a determinstic conclusion based upon the current pantheon of guidance. Its a hedge based upon the adverse undertone that this season has assumed, as well as its propensity to deconstruct tightly wound potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Forky, what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looks like a whiff to me outside of Cape Cod, and it's moving east with the rest of guidance so far Ok I'll consider the foot it dumps on me a whiff. And we're at d5 so guidance may be moving east but ukmet not and euro not in yet and even the old nogaps is west. You're jumping to conclusions based on little information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It would take a pretty significant shift west (or a lot of smaller shifts) to really hit the interior with much. But I still feel ok for the eastern/coastal areas. Let's see what the Euro has in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Its not a determinstic conclusion based upon the current pantheon of guidance. Its a hedge based upon the adverse undertone that this season has assumed, as well as its propensity to deconstruct tightly wound potential. This season, it seems like that is a good call. Not sure there is any clear scientific reasoning behind it on my end, but man, we have missed out on a lot of potential. I am more optimistic about this puppy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm not at all sold on a whiff and it's way too early for anyone else to be. We're missing by 40-50 miles on a. D5 prog folks. This is what happens when you put a ton of models in the hands of the masses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Forky, what do you think? nantucket looks like a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The ggem is still a nice thump for eastern areas, very nice actually. It trended east from its prior run though. I don't know what the dispute is about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The ggem is still a nice thump for eastern areas, very nice actually. It trended east from its prior run though. I don't know what the dispute is about The dispute is probably that some are jumping to conclusions based on little data and large error bars....basically bad science. This isn't speaking for everyone though...some are leaning one way or the other...a more conservative approach like that is usually the way to go at this time range. We actually haven't had a model run whiff New England yet on this 12z suite. So I certainly wouldn't be ruling out anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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