RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There is no trend when models waver. Why would anyone live and die by each run over 5 days out? Signs of a not so good meteorologist. Yea...he does at the very end of his discussion, cover his arse by saying shifts back west can happen. He might even word it that he thinks it will happen. Not sure with that guy sometimes with the way he words things, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Fwiw - ...NOR`EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE. THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH`S NATURAL BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY. ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDING THE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS PARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAM PAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN HIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMS TO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING, INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH ASTORM.THE WEST WILL BE A TALE OF TWO REGIONS, WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUING A HIGH-N-DRY STREAK, AND THE NORTHWEST BACK IN THE THICK OF ONSHORE FLOW. UNTIL THE OVERALL PATTERN RELAXES OR RESHUFFLES, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE WEST.CISCO I agree with him, bold -- and elaborated on this point in a longer post, yesterday... This system in question has all the ear-marks of other systems of lore, that seemed to tap into uniquely intense baroclinicity that can take place because of the burgeoning heights in the 35th parallel butting heads with a late season cold pop. That is classically being illustrated by the -EPO crash immediately preceding a +PNA spike as we near and exceed the Equinox sun's mega input into the south. By the way, the warm up after this "bomb" is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yea...he does at the very end of his discussion, cover his arse by saying shifts back west can happen. He might even word it that he thinks it will happen. Not sure with that guy sometimes with the way he words things, though. I don't get mets sometimes. One run does not equal a trend. He also neglected to comment on the massive shift west on the GFS, but when all you do is rip and read the euro...I'm not surprised why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Also, this is a late season latent heat bomb so it is possible the modeled convection could be correct in developing the low with such intense forcing...but I think it is wise not to role with any one solution since models will struggle how to handle this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I don't get mets sometimes. One run does not equal a trend. He also neglected to comment on the massive shift west on the GFS, but when all you do is rip and read the euro...I'm not surprised why. What i didnt understand is that he says the gfs and gfs ens are ots which he says is obvious because it is terrible with east coast storms. But goes to say euro and euro ens shifted more ots. So does that mean euro is terrible too? Does it mean they are both wrong now? I dunno. I obv follow him cuz he does have good insight, hes another piece of the puzzle for me. But i also get confused by his discussions at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I would like to start seeing some of the runs bring this west today and tonight...we'll be getting into that 96-108 hour range where the individual solutions start mattering more. You don't take them hook, line, and sinker for sure...but you don't want to have this trend 200 miles NW either with less than 4 days to go...so you at least want to see most guidance scraping us at minimum and hopefully a couple runs a more direct hits. Basically start bringing that eastern envelope of solutions to the left a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Side note, is 0z cmc a plausible solution? Was there ever a system with two mid level lows like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Maybe jan 2011 had a major hook back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I would like to start seeing some of the runs bring this west today and tonight...we'll be getting into that 96-108 hour range where the individual solutions start mattering more. You don't take them hook, line, and sinker for sure...but you don't want to have this trend 200 miles NW either with less than 4 days to go...so you at least want to see most guidance scraping us at minimum and hopefully a couple runs a more direct hits. Basically start bringing that eastern envelope of solutions to the left a bit. Exactly my line of thinking; you want to get closer to the center between the goalposts, especially by bringing the eastern end closer and narrowing the odds of a total miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'll give it until 00z Sunday. If we have consensus of at least a decent hit (some big hits and some brushes) then it's game on. I do expect some wavering, but you don't want the next 36 hrs to avg east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I would like to start seeing some of the runs bring this west today and tonight...we'll be getting into that 96-108 hour range where the individual solutions start mattering more. You don't take them hook, line, and sinker for sure...but you don't want to have this trend 200 miles NW either with less than 4 days to go...so you at least want to see most guidance scraping us at minimum and hopefully a couple runs a more direct hits. Basically start bringing that eastern envelope of solutions to the left a bit. I agree fully with this as i mentioned it in another forum, It would be nice to see some shifting to the west on the guidance today to at least see if we start seeing a more westward trend going forward here, We are not going to get a stronger system to do the west work for us this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'll give it until 00z Sunday. If we have consensus of at least a decent hit (some big hits and some brushes) then it's game on. I do expect some wavering, but you don't want the next 36 hrs to avg east. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I am expecting a slight tick west for the 12z GFS... nothing huge. If it goes east I will get out the rosary beads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I am expecting a slight tick west for the 12z GFS... nothing huge. If it goes east I will get out the rosary beads Just make sure you give 'em a good wash after you pull 'em out. Here's hoping the GFS clocks us all. It's Friday! Let's have some porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Just make sure you give 'em a good wash after you pull 'em out. Here's hoping the GFS clocks us all. It's Friday! Let's have some porn. That is just gross... Shelby Scott threw her laptop out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 IMHO, the runs today shellacking us. Heck were already close to that but it would be nice to see the euro join the group more consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GFS not gonna get it done this run it would appear. See in a couple more panels though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GFS not gonna get it done this run it would appear. See in a couple more panels though. No, Troff was further north, Not as sharp, Surface low a touch east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GFS not gonna get it done this run it would appear. See in a couple more panels though. Correct. Everything moving too fast west to east in upper levels and even the bombing system gets it's act together too slowly. We'll see if this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GFS not gonna get it done this run it would appear. See in a couple more panels though. Ok ,looks alright. Still not as amplified as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 More or less, the same outcome. Wide right. Might still hook back for se ma though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So no one gets hit....maybe ack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Scraper for eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ok ,looks alright. Still not as amplified as 06z. It's a huge bomb but too far east to be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At least it wasnt way right, so not overly concerned at 12z friday. Keep showing this kind of solution 12z sunday, then it becomes a growing "what if". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At least it wasnt way right, so not overly concerned at 12z friday. Keep showing this kind of solution 12z sunday, then it becomes a growing "what if". Time for this to start coming west now. Not all at once, but at least stop the ticks S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 One run of one model isn't concerning, but we want to see a general move west by more than one model. We are 0 for 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What a beast of a storm. I'm gonna be watching this closely. Could have an impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What a beast of a storm. I'm gonna be watching this closely. Could have an impact here. Got a room at your house in case some of us want to fly up for it? You guys get sucked into the ocean on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Uncle looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.