CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What a boob of a model the euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What a boob of a model the euro is. boobs.PNG Or a piglet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 For some reason..I'm really, really feeling this one. Not sure why..but i think this is going to be a storm we talk about and remember fondly for many many years Lol way to stay the course mr consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Or a piglet Could be a snout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Could be a snout. It seems like a waste of a good storm, would be strange to watch that unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It seems like a waste of a good storm, would be strange to watch that unfold Its gonna depend alot on the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Its gonna depend alot on the western ridge. The 12z EC runs have been better overall, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 What a boob of a model the euro is. boobs.PNG Saggy droopy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Congrats Phil and James on the 06 gfs blizzard. Congrats me on cirrus. Zoinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z EC runs have been better overall, no? Im not a met not do i play one online. Ask coastal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Im not a met not do i play one online. Ask coastal ? I was really asking anyone who cares to answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Im not a met not do i play one online. Ask coastal ? There has been a weird diurnal cycle of the 12z runs being better as far as the EC goes. Probably coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There has been a weird diurnal cycle of the 12z runs being better as far as the EC goes. Probably coincidence. I remember someone saying that it would happen like 3 or 4 days ago, like it was a consistent bias. OceanSt Chris maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There has been a weird diurnal cycle of the 12z runs being better as far as the EC goes. Probably coincidence. Yea that was mentioned. Have the ens followed suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yea that was mentioned. Have the ens followed suit? For the most part yes, but not as drastic as the op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Anyways, another run...another solution. 5-6 days out is still an eternity. Still a real nice signal. I'd rather not be jackpotted at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Congrats Phil and James on the 06 gfs blizzard. Congrats me on cirrus. Zoinks. We are going to need this to take a more NNE track then the ENE one it is taking when it gets around the BM, lol, Just looked at the 0z GGEM, That would work as the low gets captured and tug back NW, What a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Crazy uncle should be weighing in on this soon. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 One consistency so far has been a very deep low pressure. Would seem to lend credence to the idea that there will be haves and have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Anyways, another run...another solution. 5-6 days out is still an eternity. Still a real nice signal. I'd rather not be jackpotted at this stage. Abington becomes waterfront after Weymouth and Hingham ceast to exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yea, im keeping my eye on the ridge out west. The good thing we have going so far is the pv has been modeled to drop in the backside and not separated where we have to worry about lobes pressing down on the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We are going to need this to take a more NNE track then the ENE one it is taking when it gets around the BM, lol, Just looked at the 0z GGEM, That would work as the low gets captured and tug back NW, What a bomb Can you say "understatement"? After this winter, I'm not getting myself sucked into any excitement until 24 hours out. This is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY to far out there to have me do anything but follow the bouncing ball. 30.3/21 sn-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Anyways, another run...another solution. 5-6 days out is still an eternity. Still a real nice signal. I'd rather not be jackpotted at this stage. Sure, but you certainly want to move closer to the center of the goalposts run by run from here out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Every run still out of Hollywood at this stage. All subject to change...probably will. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Sure, but you certainly want to move closer to the center of the goalposts run by run from here out. We aren't too far from a really nice solution. I don't mind seeing the solutions shown this far out in time. The day 4 timeframe is when we started seeing some jumps in models north or south since Feb. Obviously, most jumped south..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We aren't too far from a really nice solution. I don't mind seeing the solutions shown this far out in time. The day 4 timeframe is when we started seeing some jumps in models north or south since Feb. Obviously, most jumped south..lol. If this one looks like it might become a sure hit, I'm calling dibs on starting a thread. I'll even do a full write-up full of Fyre and Brymmstoen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Definitely looks like convective feedback issues on the 00z CMC. Similar to the 12z ECMWF it spontaneously develops of a 500 hPa vorticity maxima from an MCS that develops off the southeast coast. Be very weary of these types of solutions since global models like the CMC and ECMWF are within the "no mans land" resolution wise when it comes to resolving convective features. We still need convective parameterization to resolve convection properly, yet we are getting to the point where the resolution in the models is high enough that we can resolve some convection without the need of parameterizations. Thus in some cases, convection gets over accounted for by the parameterization and you get the simulation overproducing precipitation, leading to positive feedback (more height falls, stronger trough, more forcing for lift ect.) BINGO! I realize I'm pages behind ...but Meteorology strikes the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Strange that alot of guidance has been showing bombs for king james yet hes nowhere to be found. I worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The previous honking by DT on FB has been silenced overnight. He says trends of euro and euro ens is further ots soultion. Edit: however, at the end he states trends to the west from a miller A is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There is no trend when models waver. Why would anyone live and die by each run over 5 days out? Signs of a not so good meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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