TalcottWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Kev would lose the bet and the snowstorm. Imagine the melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 7:31 PM, phil882 said: The 12z ECMWF does this very strange possibly convective feedback induced surface cyclone that is well offshore, with the parent low much closer to the coast. This keeps the max precipitation (and the minimum surface low) further offshore than what some of its ensembles will undoubtedly show. Screen Shot 2014-03-20 at 3.31.03 PM.png Are you saying there is no chance this could develop a relative warm core because of convection over relatively warmer waters? That tight little low is near the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Hey all- so I've been watching this thing for awhile (check out the tweet from the first post on this thread)- I haven't seen such a strong signal in the ensembles this year for a potential snow storm and had to write about it. Everything about this pattern screams for big potential for a historic storm for the Northeast. The models are going to shift around a little bit but looking at the upstream pattern over the Pacific, there really isn't all that much to go wrong in the models and change things much. There's no West Pac TCs to force an unexpected wave breaking event, and tropical convection is relatively benign at the moment (MJO signal is being driven mainly by circulation). I'm glad someone took the bait with my tweet and I've been skimming through this thread from time to time to see how everyone's feelings change with each new run. Fun stuff! Enjoy the snow Thank god I can work from home during this thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 DT, Wes are revved up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 8:57 PM, powderfreak said: That would be fun for eastern areas... Is that qpf? Does not look like much, unless I'm reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 8:17 PM, CoastalWx said: Hopefully we still have a strong signal by 00z Sunday. Yes, Get to sunday and lets see where it is then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 8:26 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: People posted that yesterday. It got better today Posted About a solution 300 miles east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Anyone see the euro members? Holy **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Harvey just warned of potential sizeable storm on his forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Well all joking aside, it is good to see multi member agreement on something. I'll Defintely feel better by 00z Sunday, but my gut is not sold on a miss like previous events. Just has that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 8:09 PM, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can get this to go due north into LI and CT and bury DC while we rain. I wsn't around of course, but the March 1888 torm that dropped almost 3 feet of snow on NYC after freezing rain, ever see the surface map for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 9:15 PM, Cold Miser said: Is that qpf? Does not look like much, unless I'm reading it wrong. 6 hour qpf, probably triple that for most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 9:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Well all joking aside, it is good to see multi member agreement on something. I'll Defintely feel better by 00z Sunday, but my gut is not sold on a miss like previous events. Just has that look. The western ridge is pretty far west which is usually a good thing if you are trying to keep storms from whiffing east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 9:13 PM, Mike.Ventrice said: Hey all- so I've been watching this thing for awhile (check out the tweet from the first post on this thread)- I haven't seen such a strong signal in the ensembles this year for a potential snow storm and had to write about it. Everything about this pattern screams for big potential for a historic storm for the Northeast. The models are going to shift around a little bit but looking at the upstream pattern over the Pacific, there really isn't all that much to go wrong in the models and change things much. There's no West Pac TCs to force an unexpected wave breaking event, and tropical convection is relatively benign at the moment (MJO signal is being driven mainly by circulation). I'm glad someone took the bait with my tweet and I've been skimming through this thread from time to time to see how everyone's feelings change with each new run. Fun stuff! Enjoy the snow Thank god I can work from home during this thing! What is meant by that (bold)? This was well -tracked. The entire tendency for burgeoning western N/A heights/and or intervals therein, was likely more than merely in part driven by a massive surge in MJO wave strength through the 7-8-1 wave spaces that took place over the last two weeks, and subsequent positive feed-back into a weakening WPO mode and downstream rise in the PNA. This occurred in one pulse already, and the 2nd is slated for next week. The governmental agencies charged monitoring, noted this last week. Granted the wave is looking more incoherent, but as NCEP noted this week that is likely due to nascent destructive interference with environmental conditions, air and sea, over the west Pac. And it's effectiveness on the pattern is lagged, so... if anything, it all should lend credence to the idea of a deepish anomaly then rolling out prior to a warm up. Which, interestingly, is quite akin to the longer range connotation. Not intending to be snarky I just don't know what is meant by "driven by circulation," when it was observed to be integral in driving the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 9:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Well all joking aside, it is good to see multi member agreement on something. I'll Defintely feel better by 00z Sunday, but my gut is not sold on a miss like previous events. Just has that look. Well ... you already ruined it. Just like when you opened your cookie slot that last time in some smartass jest and then it did it exactly, we can now all count on Scott's having throughtlessly committed this deal to a 1888 inverted nightmare for eastern NE ... Good work my friend. Well played -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 The bus has been washed and cleaned. It's ready for one last winter journey before we Prance thru fields of pansies. Nice trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 9:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: The bus has been washed and cleaned. It's ready for one last winter journey before we Prance thru fields of pansies. Nice trends today It's ova! Thank Scott -- yup, whatever happens, this is the Great Scott storm of 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 9:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: The bus has been washed and cleaned. It's ready for one last winter journey before we Prance thru fields of pansies. Nice trends today You clean vehicles Preparatory for snow? Interesting. I try and usually wash After the storm.. .if I can... It stays cleaner longer that way .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yeah, 'bout ready to take a gander at the 18z Scott run ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 9:13 PM, Mike.Ventrice said: Hey all- so I've been watching this thing for awhile (check out the tweet from the first post on this thread)- I haven't seen such a strong signal in the ensembles this year for a potential snow storm and had to write about it. Everything about this pattern screams for big potential for a historic storm for the Northeast. The models are going to shift around a little bit but looking at the upstream pattern over the Pacific, there really isn't all that much to go wrong in the models and change things much. There's no West Pac TCs to force an unexpected wave breaking event, and tropical convection is relatively benign at the moment (MJO signal is being driven mainly by circulation). I'm glad someone took the bait with my tweet and I've been skimming through this thread from time to time to see how everyone's feelings change with each new run. Fun stuff! Enjoy the snow Thank god I can work from home during this thing! Nice, thanks for the input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 9:28 PM, sbos_wx said: Harvey just warned of potential sizeable storm on his forecast Pete B was also cautiously starting to hype this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 18z GFS still gonna whiff, but probably about what you would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 10:13 PM, CoastalWx said: 18z GFS still gonna whiff, but probably about what you would expect. Told ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 18z wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 10:15 PM, weathafella said: 18z wide right exactly where we want it...commence nw shift in about 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 10:15 PM, weathafella said: 18z wide rightMore wide right than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How does a drive from Hartford to Rosyln Heights NY and back on Wednesday look to everyone? Got a work related trip to take that day that can't be rescheduled. Hopefully those model things aren't saying snow, that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 10:34 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: More wide right than 12z? 18z says I have nothing to worry about. You don't look at any models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 10:34 PM, JC in CT said: How does a drive from Hartford to Rosyln Heights NY and back on Wednesday look to everyone? Got a work related trip to take that day that can't be rescheduled. Hopefully those model things aren't saying snow, that would suck. Hairy? Dont decide now; can you wait til Sunday to make your final decision? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 On 3/20/2014 at 10:42 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: Hairy? Dont decide now; can you wait til Sunday to make your final decision? Oh no, the decision is already made, I have to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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