harrisale Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 north isn't necessarily a bad thing for us. GEM and now the EURO look decent here. Wyandotte snow magnet should kick in at some point so don't worry. Yeah a bit of a north bump wouldn't hurt us according to the GEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 north isn't necessarily a bad thing for us. GEM and now the EURO look decent here. Wyandotte snow magnet should kick in at some point so don't worry. I was just giving you some crap. I actually think we are not too bad off yet with this one. The threat is still there and really that is what matters this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 I was just giving you some crap. I actually think we are not too bad off yet with this one. The threat is still there and really that is what matters this far out. lol, EURO too far north for even I. Crap was well deserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 lol, EURO too far north for even I. Crap was well deserved. I just saw the 12z Euro QPF for YYZ posted at another site and it shows 0.46". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 I just saw the 12z Euro QPF for YYZ posted at another site and it shows 0.46". Main band is just to our north. And is that 0.46" all frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Main band is just to our north. And is that 0.46" all frozen? Most of it is frozen. Only 0.06 qpf falls when temperatures are slightly above freezing at 2C (35F). Otherwise SFC temps are around 26-28F (-2 to -3C) when the heaviest precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Main band is just to our north. And is that 0.46" all frozen? Here's the 12Z Euro text data: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z MAR18 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 00Z 22-MAR 0.4 -6.3 1013 70 36 0.00 542 532 SAT 06Z 22-MAR -2.4 -3.8 1007 83 98 0.01 539 533 SAT 12Z 22-MAR -2.1 -7.0 1001 92 63 0.39 527 526 SAT 18Z 22-MAR 2.0 -9.1 1012 57 75 0.06 532 523 SUN 00Z 23-MAR -3.1 -9.5 1017 77 79 0.00 532 518 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Most of it is frozen. Only 0.06 qpf falls when temperatures are slightly above freezing at 2C (35F). Otherwise SFC temps are around 26-28F (-2 to -3C) when the heaviest precip is falling. See harrisale's chart. That 0.06" falls before the temp gets that warm. So looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 DTX has 3-5" of snow down for the I-69 corridor Friday night, 2-4" south of there to the Ohio border in the grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 DTX has 3-5" of snow down for the I-69 corridor Friday night, 2-4" south of there to the Ohio border in the grids. Surprisingly aggressive on this one especially toward the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 north isn't necessarily a bad thing for us. GEM and now the EURO look decent here. Wyandotte snow magnet should kick in at some point so don't worry. Well not if this one dumps the heavy duty snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Well not if this one dumps the heavy duty snow amounts.Because this us gonna be a 13"+ storm anywhere? doubt it. Models are even worse in transition seasons. Yikes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Because this us gonna be a 13"+ storm anywhere? doubt it. Models are even worse in transition seasons. Yikes lol. Well I didn't say it would or wouldn't (potential is there of course). But I was merely stating that the magnet doesn't seem to work when it comes to those types of snows, if this were to become one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Well I didn't say it would or wouldn't (potential is there of course). But I was merely stating that the magnet doesn't seem to work when it comes to those types of snows, if this were to become one. The potential isn't there for over 12" amounts. This system is going to be moving too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The potential isn't there for over 12" amounts. This system is going to be moving too fast. Even with the relatively fast movement, these frontogenesis events combined with the amount of convective instability that will be in place aloft can overachieve nicely in areas with the best banding. So I won't say the potential isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 All I care about is enough snow to break that record, or at least enough to inch us closer. Anything is welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 DTX posting numerical amounts this far out is very bullish this far out with such a eye of the needle type of system like this. Gives me hope for it to verify. I don't think this will be the last system of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Even with the relatively fast movement, these frontogenesis events combined with the amount of convective instability that will be in place aloft can overachieve nicely in areas with the best banding. So I won't say the potential isn't there. I would, 12" on something that is moving this quickly would be extremely surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 All I care about is enough snow to break that record, or at least enough to inch us closer. Anything is welcome. Starting to look iffy ... ... lots of cold but precip is lacking when it is cold ... yes there is still time but this is beginning to remind me of 07-08 when Flint fell 0.1" away from the record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Pretty decent consensus from the EC ENS members w/ a swath of snow in and around the golden horseshoe although some members do vary from the mean. The GEFS is the opposite, and would be mixing for most of us. Going to be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Well I didn't say it would or wouldn't (potential is there of course). But I was merely stating that the magnet doesn't seem to work when it comes to those types of snows, if this were to become one. some of you guys automatically think every time a storm threat is shown that it has that potential lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This storm will be interesting for the golden horseshoe, but given how fast the system will be moving, I'd say 20cm is pretty much the cap. Will be interesting to see how the rain/snow line sets up and if any freezing rain may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What a POS this current storm turned out to be. If it wouldn't of crapped the bed, this one might've been better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The possibility of a minor ice storm Friday night across a swath of S ON including the GTA is becoming something to watch. Both the NAM and GGEM have pockets of 7-10mm of ice accretion and some strong winds. That combined with the weakened trees from the destructive ice storm in December could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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