Subtropics Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro ens favors an east track. Better than last night though. Still supports snow for us. Somewhere around .35 qpf on the means. MSLP track just far enough east to keep the big precip offshore. Pretty strong signal at this lead either way. Right were we want it. I know some of the older members of this forum will be drinking BECS beer soon enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Something I'll add just from a guy who has tracked a lot of storm on the models. I imagine the GFS might be suppressed with this storm for a while. Whenever it comes to phasing storms it tends to always crush the southern branch. Obviously we don't know what will happen, but my guess is the GFS will have a real tough time with an event like this...not like that isn't to be expected anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 HM, Bob, etc...How does the time of year with regards to the changes in wave lengths effect this potential storm? Is there a better chance that this things ends up phasing/closing off faster due to the change in wave lengths? I'll have to defer there. I would say much better chance than January. That's about all I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 ETA: I want the B word to be broken out on Sunday Boom? Blizzard? Bada-Bing? Boo-yah? Buried (in snow)? All of the above...plus it would be nice to see a whole lot of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What would we put the chance of >12'' right now? My gut says 33%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What would we put the chance of >12'' right now? My gut says 33%. I'm thinking about the same with a slight movement of the decimal. .0033% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What would we put the chance of >12'' right now? My gut says 33%. Did you pull that out of a hat? I'd say there is a 20% of even getting precipitation at this point let alone a foot of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What would we put the chance of >12'' right now? My gut says 33%.lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What would we put the chance of >12'' right now? My gut says 33%. Are you ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 That's pretty funny - I did the same thing. Here's the equatorial breach he referred to. I'm about 50% sure he's talking about "2" on the map. Yeah I think so on 2. He's like Shakespeare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yeah I think so on 2. He's like Shakespeare. but w/o the bald spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yeah I think so on 2. He's like Shakespeare. but w/o the bald spot Come, now, don't dis the Bard!! At least we did not suffer a winter of discontent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Come, now, don't dis the Bard!! At least we did not suffer a winter of discontent! had I read what I was supposed to read in school, I might get that joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 CMC ensembles are south and amped, but east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Larry banned me from Facebook and Twitter. Not sure why...i had been very friendly with him Don't worry, he banned me way back. He's extremely thin skinned. Lotta people found that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yesterday he was talking about an equatorial breach. I thought it was an actual term then I googled it and only he has used it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yesterday he was talking about an equatorial breach. I thought it was an actual term then I googled it and only he has used it. Equatorial breach? Isn't that what happens when a baby is too big when it's being born? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Vacation destination in Ecuador Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Equatorial breach? Isn't that what happens when a baby is too big when it's being born? I always thought is was when someone has a strict diet of bananas, cheese, and ny strips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 That's an extremely ignorant term which is why he's the only met who uses it. At every second of every day of every year, the Tropics are constantly fluxing out all kinds of mass at all kinds of time scales and heights. Meridional mass and eddy flux from the Tropics are both very normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 had I read what I was supposed to read in school, I might get that joke! LOL!! Yeah, I couldn't resist that joke! It's a reference to the line "Now is the winter of our discontent" from "Richard III". (I actually never read that one, but I did see it performed on stage.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro members bumped things up a bit. 3.5" on the means for dca. 40 show some snow (plenty of light members). Some big hits in there as well. Like 8 or so 10"+. ETA: Mean precip is .35+/- so few rainy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Uhh...GFS looks like it might go gangbusters @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Uhh...GFS looks like it might go gangbusters @ 120 nope..i'm at 132...starting to looking a little interesting i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 nope..i'm at 132...starting to looking a little interesting i guess Look at the northern branch phasing in @ 138, when that catches up its going to seriously explode. The EURO didn't even do this until late in the run. Not saying this run will snow over us, but its going to show an epic bomb IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS is getting close to something..I'm at 141..gonna miss the capture looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS is getting close to something..I'm at 141..gonna miss the capture looks like Lots of energy on the backside of the trough, could slow it down and explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Agonizingly close...prob gonna be good for NE Yup...looks too late for us...I still take it as a positive step tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS is getting close to something..I'm at 141..gonna miss the capture looks like Nice to see it close though. Sucks we won't really know till the weekend. We're stuck in spray mode with the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Lots of energy on the backside of the trough, could slow it down and explode. Yeah, GFS is pretty close. Maybe a bit weenie-ish, but if you account for progressive bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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