AlaskaETC Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Hoping for a direct hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Verbatim it's a scraper. 3-5 kind of deal. Eastern areas favored...for now. Down to 978 a couple hundred miles off of OC If you bomb it, moisture will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS and Euro now showing a Miller A solution, but a bit to the east. Not a bad position to be in, I suppose. HM, Bob, et al...would you say there's some wiggle room (especially considering the time of year)? Temps upstairs are cold, I assume. Edit: More like "Temps have the potential to be plenty cold upstairs, I assume" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS and Euro now showing a Miller A solution, but a bit to the east. Not a bad position to be in, I suppose. HM, Bob, et al...would you say there's some wiggle room (especially considering the time of year)? Temps upstairs are cold, I assume. Believe it or not, there's really no issues with cold air availability. Now, I am making that comment on the current modeled evolution. Should things drastically change, then it might become a typical issue, especially if it arrives during the daytime Tuesday. We do have "wiggle room" here because we have an awesomely placed PNA-EPO-WPO transpolar ridge and a good long wave position. The s/w embedded within, convection and the polar vortex are all going to cause mayhem as far as exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 850 temps on the 12z Euro run (and the GEM run for that matter) are obscenely low for this time of year next week at primetime. The 0C line is down to southern Georgia Wednesday at 06z....I mean...what that...? In the aftermath, 12z Euro drops the 0C 850 temps into Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Believe it or not, there's really no issues with cold air availability. Now, I am making that comment on the current modeled evolution. Should things drastically change, then it might become a typical issue, especially if it arrives during the daytime Tuesday. We do have "wiggle room" here because we have an awesomely placed PNA-EPO-WPO transpolar ridge and a good long wave position. The s/w embedded within, convection and the polar vortex are all going to cause mayhem as far as exact track. Thanks, HM. Completely understood that you're referring to how things are currently modeled. Still...pretty amazing how things are lining up, whether we get snow or not. And I really appreciate your addressing my "wiggle room" question. I honestly don't want snow at this point, but if it's going to be cold, then we might as well go for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 850's on the run are fine. If the storm bombs below our latitude we'll have mixing issues for sure though. Not that anybody would care because a foot of snow would be covered with 3" of sleet, and that would be covered with 6" additional snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Believe it or not, there's really no issues with cold air availability. Now, I am making that comment on the current modeled evolution. Should things drastically change, then it might become a typical issue, especially if it arrives during the daytime Tuesday. We do have "wiggle room" here because we have an awesomely placed PNA-EPO-WPO transpolar ridge and a good long wave position. The s/w embedded within, convection and the polar vortex are all going to cause mayhem as far as exact track. fwiw, steve demartino posted he doesn't see how the EC will work with PV farther north, thinks it goes farther east, picks GFS/EURO combo. Hope your right!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 fwiw, steve demartino posted he doesn't see how the EC will work with PV farther north, thinks it goes farther east, picks GFS/EURO combo. Hope your right!! As usual, that makes no sense, but I would need to read his actual words before completely dismissing his statement as dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 850's on the run are fine. If the storm bombs below our latitude we'll have mixing issues for sure though. Not that anybody would care because a foot of snow would be covered with 3" of sleet, and that would be covered with 6" additional snow. Yeah sign me up for a legitimate phasing / cyclone where I possibly mix rather than a grazer that's cold enough to the NC-VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 As usual, that makes no sense, but I would need to read his actual words before completely dismissing his statement as dumb. no problem he posted on larry cosgrove web page, Thanks for posting to me, appreciate your time and thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yeah sign me up for a legitimate phasing / cyclone where I possibly mix rather than a grazer that's cold enough to the NC-VA coast.I'm totally fine with that too. We've kinda had it all this year here. The verbatim run is a 2-4/3-5 kinda deal. The novelty of that late in March is largely shadowed by 5" of snow in the teens and a 9.5" perfect maximization of an otherwise average storm. Go big or go home time. I'm fine with mixing if there is heavy snow and high winds for a time. Would be a fitting end to a pretty unbelievable year.ETA: I want the B word to be broken out on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Blizzard in late March? That would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Larry Cosgrove is about 48 hours from all in. I myself am getting close as well. Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I am rooting for a slightly inland track with 6"+ of sleet. We've had plenty of snow this season, it's time for something a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 dt just aleeted. Actually, it was a very nice write-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Another Aleet incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Although the CMC op lost the Miller A, the UKMET seems to have picked it up -- it looks similar to the Euro at 144 hours. CMC and GFS ensembles still somewhat on board. About 62% of the CMC members and 38% of the GEFS members have us getting some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Larry Cosgrove is about 48 hours from all in. I myself am getting close as well. Let's do this! Larry won't be in until he's convinced the gyre off Nova Scotia and the Senoran heat ridge are properly spaced allowing for a TUTT signature near the Bay of Campeche...then it'll come closer to the coast if the Azore High isn't too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Larry won't be in until he's convinced the gyre off Nova Scotia and the Senoran heat ridge are properly spaced allowing for a TUTT signature near the Bay of Campeche...then it'll come closer to the coast if the Azore High isn't too strong With a cyclone track from Smithsfield, FL to Okachoobee, GA, 50 mi east of Centenary, SC, 50 miles east of home depot in OC, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'm totally fine with that too. We've kinda had it all this year here. The verbatim run is a 2-4/3-5 kinda deal. The novelty of that late in March is largely shadowed by 5" of snow in the teens and a 9.5" perfect maximization of an otherwise average storm. Go big or go home time. I'm fine with mixing if there is heavy snow and high winds for a time. Would be a fitting end to a pretty unbelievable year. ETA: I want the B word to be broken out on Sunday Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking! If I see the B word on Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 With a cyclone track from Smithsfield, FL to Okachoobee, GA, 50 mi east of Centenary, SC, 50 miles east of home depot in OC,Yesterday he was talking about an equatorial breach. I thought it was an actual term then I googled it and only he has used it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 Larry banned me from Facebook and Twitter. Not sure why...i had been very friendly with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What does climo say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What does climo say? no more than 0.1" of snow for DC if it happens by Tuesday. If it's Wednesday we're fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 LC's facebook page is a mess. If you're going to dedicate your page to weather, stick to weather. Leave the politics for someone else to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro ens favors an east track. Better than last night though. Still supports snow for us. Somewhere around .35 qpf on the means. MSLP track just far enough east to keep the big precip offshore. Pretty strong signal at this lead either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 HM, Bob, etc...How does the time of year with regards to the changes in wave lengths effect this potential storm? Is there a better chance that this things ends up phasing/closing off faster due to the change in wave lengths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 no more than 0.1" of snow for DC if it happens by Tuesday. If it's Wednesday we're fooked. First call 0.0 - 0.1 I hope that envelope is narrow enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yesterday he was talking about an equatorial breach. I thought it was an actual term then I googled it and only he has used it. That's pretty funny - I did the same thing. Here's the equatorial breach he referred to. I'm about 50% sure he's talking about "2" on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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