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Season Finale :(


Ji

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GFS and Euro now showing a Miller A solution, but a bit to the east.  Not a bad position to be in, I suppose.

 

HM, Bob, et al...would you say there's some wiggle room (especially considering the time of year)?  Temps upstairs are cold, I assume. 

 

Edit: More like "Temps have the potential to be plenty cold upstairs, I assume"

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GFS and Euro now showing a Miller A solution, but a bit to the east.  Not a bad position to be in, I suppose.

 

HM, Bob, et al...would you say there's some wiggle room (especially considering the time of year)?  Temps upstairs are cold, I assume.

Believe it or not, there's really no issues with cold air availability. Now, I am making that comment on the current modeled evolution. Should things drastically change, then it might become a typical issue, especially if it arrives during the daytime Tuesday. We do have "wiggle room" here because we have an awesomely placed PNA-EPO-WPO transpolar ridge and a good long wave position.

The s/w embedded within, convection and the polar vortex are all going to cause mayhem as far as exact track.

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Believe it or not, there's really no issues with cold air availability. Now, I am making that comment on the current modeled evolution. Should things drastically change, then it might become a typical issue, especially if it arrives during the daytime Tuesday. We do have "wiggle room" here because we have an awesomely placed PNA-EPO-WPO transpolar ridge and a good long wave position.

The s/w embedded within, convection and the polar vortex are all going to cause mayhem as far as exact track.

 

Thanks, HM.  Completely understood that you're referring to how things are currently modeled.  Still...pretty amazing how things are lining up, whether we get snow or not.  And I really appreciate your addressing my "wiggle room" question.

 

I honestly don't want snow at this point, but if it's going to be cold, then we might as well go for it!

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Believe it or not, there's really no issues with cold air availability. Now, I am making that comment on the current modeled evolution. Should things drastically change, then it might become a typical issue, especially if it arrives during the daytime Tuesday. We do have "wiggle room" here because we have an awesomely placed PNA-EPO-WPO transpolar ridge and a good long wave position.

The s/w embedded within, convection and the polar vortex are all going to cause mayhem as far as exact track.

fwiw, steve demartino posted he doesn't see how the EC will work with PV farther north, thinks it goes farther east, picks GFS/EURO combo. Hope your right!!

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fwiw, steve demartino posted he doesn't see how the EC will work with PV farther north, thinks it goes farther east, picks GFS/EURO combo. Hope your right!!

As usual, that makes no sense, but I would need to read his actual words before completely dismissing his statement as dumb.

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850's on the run are fine. If the storm bombs below our latitude we'll have mixing issues for sure though. Not that anybody would care because a foot of snow would be covered with 3" of sleet, and that would be covered with 6" additional snow.

Yeah sign me up for a legitimate phasing / cyclone where I possibly mix rather than a grazer that's cold enough to the NC-VA coast.

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Yeah sign me up for a legitimate phasing / cyclone where I possibly mix rather than a grazer that's cold enough to the NC-VA coast.

I'm totally fine with that too. We've kinda had it all this year here. The verbatim run is a 2-4/3-5 kinda deal. The novelty of that late in March is largely shadowed by 5" of snow in the teens and a 9.5" perfect maximization of an otherwise average storm. Go big or go home time. I'm fine with mixing if there is heavy snow and high winds for a time. Would be a fitting end to a pretty unbelievable year.

ETA: I want the B word to be broken out on Sunday

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Although the CMC op lost the Miller A, the UKMET seems to have picked it up -- it looks similar to the Euro at 144 hours.

 

CMC and GFS ensembles still somewhat on board.  About 62% of the CMC members and 38% of the GEFS members have us getting some snow. 

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Larry Cosgrove is about 48 hours from all in. I myself am getting close as well. Let's do this!

Larry won't be in until he's convinced the gyre off Nova Scotia and the Senoran heat ridge are properly spaced allowing for a TUTT signature near the Bay of Campeche...then it'll come closer to the coast if the Azore High isn't too strong

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Larry won't be in until he's convinced the gyre off Nova Scotia and the Senoran heat ridge are properly spaced allowing for a TUTT signature near the Bay of Campeche...then it'll come closer to the coast if the Azore High isn't too strong

With a cyclone track from Smithsfield, FL to Okachoobee, GA, 50 mi east of Centenary, SC, 50 miles east of home depot in OC, 

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I'm totally fine with that too. We've kinda had it all this year here. The verbatim run is a 2-4/3-5 kinda deal. The novelty of that late in March is largely shadowed by 5" of snow in the teens and a 9.5" perfect maximization of an otherwise average storm. Go big or go home time. I'm fine with mixing if there is heavy snow and high winds for a time. Would be a fitting end to a pretty unbelievable year.

ETA: I want the B word to be broken out on Sunday

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking!  If I see the B word on Sunday... :tomato:

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With a cyclone track from Smithsfield, FL to Okachoobee, GA, 50 mi east of Centenary, SC, 50 miles east of home depot in OC,

Yesterday he was talking about an equatorial breach. I thought it was an actual term then I googled it and only he has used it.
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