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Season Finale :(


Ji

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Two things:

1. The last time the 93 storm showed up on the top of analog charts, the storm ended up a very warm inland runner. I don't think it was ever modeled to be a triple phaser while yesterday's Euro was a triple phaser.

2. I never said I don't believe in a seasonal tendency. I think model trends based on a seasonal perspective of cyclone behavior is nonsense. "Haven't storms been shifting north this year" e.g. Thoughts like that will lead to busts, like it did up in my area on 3/3.

1. Well, when I hear 93 I think triple phase. I guess there could be a storm of that intensity that's not a triple phase. I think whoever runs the super ensembles should just remove 93 from the analog list before they post the run on their site....lol

2. Ahh, OK. My mistake. But they really do shift north down here w/in 24 hrs. 90% of the time!  :P

Sunday, though, was to our benefit. 

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1. Well, when I hear 93 I think triple phase. I guess there could be a storm of that intensity that's not a triple phase. I think whoever runs the super ensembles should just remove 93 from the analog list before they post the run on their site....lol

2. Ahh, OK. My mistake. But they really do shift north down here w/in 24 hrs. 90% of the time! :P

Sunday, though, was to our benefit.

They are computed by 500mb anomalies over a 5 day average. That's just going to simply show the trough. It doesn't give specifics like triple phasing. This NH pattern is a better match than last time but it doesn't mean we see any results that are similar either.

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GFS is close. SE and out to sea for now. I take much more comfort in these solutions than anything miller b'ish. We probably won't have much of a clear picture until fri-sat. Pretty tight spacing with a kicker behind. That's a bit of a flag for a too far east solution though.

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GFS is close. SE and out to sea for now. I take much more comfort in these solutions than anything miller b'ish. We probably won't have much of a clear picture until fri-sat. Pretty tight spacing with a kicker behind. That's a bit of a flag for a too far east solution though.

Given the large PV and progressive nature of the flow, I'd rather see something wrapped up farther inland. The idea that we "want" it SE of us at this stage makes zero sense to me.

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Given the large PV and progressive nature of the flow, I'd rather see something wrapped up farther inland. The idea that we "want" it SE of us at this stage makes zero sense to me.

with the GFS, it does

recall last week the GFS was weak and SE until a few days before the event....it'll never change it seems

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The long wave feature looks pretty good with excellent placement. Not worried yet about its surface.

Pretty much sums it up. We've had a lot of practice with this setup this year. Pretty amazing actually. No way to know the details until the sw's and pv placement is better resolved. The MA has capitalized 3 times in a row. Our luck has either run out or the highway is rutted and aimed at us. Period of interest remains viable. Not sure you can go much beyond that. Well, I can't anyways.

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The long wave feature looks pretty good with excellent placement. Not worried yet about its surface.

 

 

Given the large PV and progressive nature of the flow, I'd rather see something wrapped up farther inland. The idea that we "want" it SE of us at this stage makes zero sense to me.

and if you don't believe me (and I wouldn't blame you in the least), listen to the "Man"

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Given the large PV and progressive nature of the flow, I'd rather see something wrapped up farther inland. The idea that we "want" it SE of us at this stage makes zero sense to me.

It makes perfect sense.   TIme and time again, the GFS had had these storms too far s and e when it comes to coastal storms that hit us.

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Its rain, so who cares? ;)

well, essentially/practically all the models showed Sunday/Monday as rain at some point so unless you're suggesting we should take the GEM temps as gospel at 120 hrs. (especially when 850s look cold enough), it has some value I would argue

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well, essentially/practically all the models showed Sunday/Monday as rain at some point so unless you're suggesting we should take the GEM temps as gospel at 120 hrs. (especially when 850s look cold enough), it has some value I would argue

 

Well i was looking at surface, not 850s... but true.  We shall see

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It is so close to a capture but the phase is too late and/or the trough may go neutral too late. But as Bob said, it's a classic Miller A, almost resembling some historic storms.

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It is so close to a capture but the phase is too late and/or the trough may go neutral too late. But as Bob said, it's a classic Miller A, almost resembling some historic storms.

It's an interesting development. Plenty of ensemble members last night showed a hit or too far east. The op solution will raise an eyebrow. It's a big storm even if too far east. Wouldn't take much....

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It appears the Euro doesn't like any of the 3 streams phasing until off New England, really. The southern wave stays its "own" through a good bit of its journey, partially interacting with northern branch. This still ends up "triple phasing" but just way too late for us.

There is no doubting the Arctic and Tropical connection coming together with a nicely positioned long wave. Now it is up to the s/w playing out.

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