mitchnick Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Two things: 1. The last time the 93 storm showed up on the top of analog charts, the storm ended up a very warm inland runner. I don't think it was ever modeled to be a triple phaser while yesterday's Euro was a triple phaser. 2. I never said I don't believe in a seasonal tendency. I think model trends based on a seasonal perspective of cyclone behavior is nonsense. "Haven't storms been shifting north this year" e.g. Thoughts like that will lead to busts, like it did up in my area on 3/3. 1. Well, when I hear 93 I think triple phase. I guess there could be a storm of that intensity that's not a triple phase. I think whoever runs the super ensembles should just remove 93 from the analog list before they post the run on their site....lol 2. Ahh, OK. My mistake. But they really do shift north down here w/in 24 hrs. 90% of the time! Sunday, though, was to our benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 1. Well, when I hear 93 I think triple phase. I guess there could be a storm of that intensity that's not a triple phase. I think whoever runs the super ensembles should just remove 93 from the analog list before they post the run on their site....lol 2. Ahh, OK. My mistake. But they really do shift north down here w/in 24 hrs. 90% of the time! Sunday, though, was to our benefit. They are computed by 500mb anomalies over a 5 day average. That's just going to simply show the trough. It doesn't give specifics like triple phasing. This NH pattern is a better match than last time but it doesn't mean we see any results that are similar either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS is close. SE and out to sea for now. I take much more comfort in these solutions than anything miller b'ish. We probably won't have much of a clear picture until fri-sat. Pretty tight spacing with a kicker behind. That's a bit of a flag for a too far east solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS 3/25-26 storm is SE of us... right where we want it at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The long wave feature looks pretty good with excellent placement. Not worried yet about its surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS is close. SE and out to sea for now. I take much more comfort in these solutions than anything miller b'ish. We probably won't have much of a clear picture until fri-sat. Pretty tight spacing with a kicker behind. That's a bit of a flag for a too far east solution though. Given the large PV and progressive nature of the flow, I'd rather see something wrapped up farther inland. The idea that we "want" it SE of us at this stage makes zero sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Given the large PV and progressive nature of the flow, I'd rather see something wrapped up farther inland. The idea that we "want" it SE of us at this stage makes zero sense to me. with the GFS, it does recall last week the GFS was weak and SE until a few days before the event....it'll never change it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The long wave feature looks pretty good with excellent placement. Not worried yet about its surface. Pretty much sums it up. We've had a lot of practice with this setup this year. Pretty amazing actually. No way to know the details until the sw's and pv placement is better resolved. The MA has capitalized 3 times in a row. Our luck has either run out or the highway is rutted and aimed at us. Period of interest remains viable. Not sure you can go much beyond that. Well, I can't anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The long wave feature looks pretty good with excellent placement. Not worried yet about its surface. Given the large PV and progressive nature of the flow, I'd rather see something wrapped up farther inland. The idea that we "want" it SE of us at this stage makes zero sense to me. and if you don't believe me (and I wouldn't blame you in the least), listen to the "Man" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Given the large PV and progressive nature of the flow, I'd rather see something wrapped up farther inland. The idea that we "want" it SE of us at this stage makes zero sense to me. It makes perfect sense. TIme and time again, the GFS had had these storms too far s and e when it comes to coastal storms that hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I thought we've seen a lot of inland storms trend east this winter including GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GEM a little early with something on the 108-120 time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I got a group text from a friend today asking if there's going to be a big nor'easter next week. In it, she linked to http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/march-26-30-potentially-significant.html. It begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I was about to say..nobody noticed that the GGEM was stirring up trouble at hour 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GGEM is a miss for us. Delmarva gets a couple inches. Nothing of interest beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I was about to say..nobody noticed that the GGEM was stirring up trouble at hour 114 You can always count on mitch or yoda to have the GEM at the ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 You can always count on mitch or yoda to have the GEM at the ready. Its rain, so who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Its rain, so who cares? well, essentially/practically all the models showed Sunday/Monday as rain at some point so unless you're suggesting we should take the GEM temps as gospel at 120 hrs. (especially when 850s look cold enough), it has some value I would argue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Its rain, so who cares? It'll be the last week of March. Superstorm or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 well, essentially/practically all the models showed Sunday/Monday as rain at some point so unless you're suggesting we should take the GEM temps as gospel at 120 hrs. (especially when 850s look cold enough), it has some value I would argue Well i was looking at surface, not 850s... but true. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro is going to suck us all back in....heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I confess to reading other forums for PBP of the Euro. I am a sick person. I did see the phrase "mid-atlantic crushed" pop up. Is that remotely accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 988 just off obx @ 156. NW shield isn't very organized but that doesn't matter much. Miller to the f'n A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Snowing here at hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It is so close to a capture but the phase is too late and/or the trough may go neutral too late. But as Bob said, it's a classic Miller A, almost resembling some historic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Verbatim it's a scraper. 3-5 kind of deal. Eastern areas favored...for now. Down to 978 a couple hundred miles off of OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Nice to see it on the GFS and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It is so close to a capture but the phase is too late and/or the trough may go neutral too late. But as Bob said, it's a classic Miller A, almost resembling some historic storms. It's an interesting development. Plenty of ensemble members last night showed a hit or too far east. The op solution will raise an eyebrow. It's a big storm even if too far east. Wouldn't take much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Damn, down to 954 just south of NS. Nobody really gets hit though. Still a solid signal for a big storm. The fish are going to get beat up if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It appears the Euro doesn't like any of the 3 streams phasing until off New England, really. The southern wave stays its "own" through a good bit of its journey, partially interacting with northern branch. This still ends up "triple phasing" but just way too late for us. There is no doubting the Arctic and Tropical connection coming together with a nicely positioned long wave. Now it is up to the s/w playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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