Season Finale :(

[stormtracker]

JMA is a big hit. Especially for New England

It's 180 hours out.

[HM]

A nice takeaway today is the ops are showing various looks with multiple vorts and cold close by or overhead. Ensembles agree in a general active pattern with potential. Euro ens last night backed off a good bit but I'm willing to bet that changes later when they come out.

Interesting period shaping up. I agree with HM that without a more classic block, a big phaser would be a fluke. They can happen but chasing it should be met with high caution. I'm starting to feel the odds of snow falling from the sky next week tilting in our favor. Might be another weekend of staring at panels. lol.

I'll tell you what...if this weekend's PV displacement and North Atlantic Ridge are enough to dip the NAO (slow the flow and pile air southward), then maybe we have everything on the checklist coming together. At that point, the long-wave trough axis becomes crucial for where phasing occurs.

[clskinsfan]

I'll tell you what...if this weekend's PV displacement and North Atlantic Ridge are enough to dip the NAO (slow the flow and pile air southward), then maybe we have everything on the checklist coming together. At that point, the long-wave trough axis becomes crucial for where phasing occurs.

 

Like every storm this winter. It is the PV position that counts. If there is any truth to seasonal trends. It wouldnt be surprising to see it happen again.

[HM]

Like every storm this winter. It is the PV position that counts. If there is any truth to seasonal trends. It wouldnt be surprising to see it happen again.

But I'm not talking about cold air availability here for snow as much as I am talking about phasing. Before the great 93' phasing, like a week or so, the North Atlantic actually became disturbed. The NAO was negative and it was part of what helped produce the phasing down the road, even though it didn't happen close to the event. The worry here is that the PV will either prevent proper phasing by being too close or too far away, toying with the trough positioning. A lot of time between now and next week and we are already seeing modeling phasing this nicely in time for many to see a snowstorm...

[Bob Chill]

I'll tell you what...if this weekend's PV displacement and North Atlantic Ridge are enough to dip the NAO (slow the flow and pile air southward), then maybe we have everything on the checklist coming together. At that point, the long-wave trough axis becomes crucial for where phasing occurs.

Would be pretty awesome to see happen. I was living out west during 93. I think that was the last time there was a march monster? I have zero experience tracking the ingredients for giant phasing system. Sandy was an interesting mix but the tropical origins are quite different. Keep sharing your thoughts at what to look for @ the upper levels. I would enjoy watching and tracking something big unfold.

I suppose if we want all snow down here we don't really want a monster but I've had my fill of tracking medium sized events this year. I already consider Sunday's event a big bonus.

[Ji]

Were due to get screwed and go back to sucking. Remember your roots

[smokeybandit]

Were due to get screwed and go back to sucking. Remember your roots

Yeah, like back to counting winter snow totals in one hand then next three years

[stormtracker]

GFS wrecks us again...miller b though, so yeah

[Heisy]

GFS truncates, but if it hadn't the VVs tell me it would have shown a pretty crazy solution...

 

Random question guys, but lets say hypothetically we're 48 hours away from the event & the models have SNE getting a storm close to what the EURO showed today, would any of you be interested in storm chasing as a group? 

[hosj III]

GFS wrecks us again...miller b though, so yeah

Shifted a bit north from the last run, though trends don't really matter this far out.

[dailylurker]

GFS truncates, but if it hadn't the VVs tell me it would have shown a pretty crazy solution...

 

Random question guys, but lets say hypothetically we're 48 hours away from the event & the models have SNE getting a storm close to what the EURO showed today, would any of you be interested in storm chasing as a group?

I would absolutely love too. The only problem is taking off work on short notice. I have the same problem during hurricane season.

[Ji]

euro control is a classic Miller A. A bit too far east but close enough

[Bob Chill]

euro control is a classic Miller A. A bit too far east but close enough

We need that or some sort of hybrid. If we get a miller b with a primary north of ky we're toast. Literally.

Euro ens weren't impressive with member output. Worse than last night

[Ian]

Mar 1993 is on cpc list. I swear it has shown up like 4 storms this year.

[swvirginiawx]

Mar 1993 is on cpc list. I swear it has shown up like 4 storms this year.

Yep.

 

[Bob Chill]

Mar 1993 is on cpc list. I swear it has shown up like 4 storms this year.

It would be fitting for sne to get dc's seasonal total in one storm to finish the year. The bullseye has been wacky this year. First philly north. Then se areas back to us. Then we had the spotlight for the last 4 weeks. Historic storm north of us to close the month and season makes sense in some ways.

[SLPressure]

It would be fitting for sne to get dc's seasonal total in one storm to finish the year. The bullseye has been wacky this year. First philly north. Then se areas back to us. Then we had the spotlight for the last 4 weeks. Historic storm north of us to close the month and season makes sense in some ways.

Yeah. I don't have that warm fuzzy feeling for this threat. Still could happen but a lot of the guidance so far is moving toward a NE winter event. Still early though. Fingers crossed.

[cae]

For what it's worth, there's a healthy amount of support for a Miller A solution in the GFS and GGEM ensembles. 

 

[mitchnick]

     There was some mention of triple phasing with the St. Patty's Day storm a week out and that went by the wayside a day or 2 later. I know HM doesn't believe in seasonal patterns, and even though I honestly believe he's the best, this old f@rt does believe in seasonal patterns. They can change/break down during the season, however. So the question is whether we hold on to the one we've been in for the past month or so for another 10 days or does it break? I certainly don't know but in light of the way the models look and the fact that discussion of next week is eerily reminiscent of last week's discussions, I'd say it's better than 50/50 it holds. Of course, considering the date, I'm not sure it necessarily means snow for DCA/BWI even if it does hold. From a weenie's perspective, however, when I consider the 1.8" BWI received during the winter of 11/12 and the 8" in 12/13, we're a long way from being even, so we're due still.

[mitchnick]

...and just in case next week doesn't work out, no worries (NINO forecast from 3/17/14)

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

There was some mention of triple phasing with the St. Patty's Day storm a week out and that went by the wayside a day or 2 later. I know HM doesn't believe in seasonal patterns, and even though I honestly believe he's the best, this old f@rt does believe in seasonal patterns. They can change/break down during the season, however. So the question is whether we hold on to the one we've been in for the past month or so for another 10 days or does it break? I certainly don't know but in light of the way the models look and the fact that discussion of next week is eerily reminiscent of last week's discussions, I'd say it's better than 50/50 it holds. Of course, considering the date, I'm not sure it necessarily means snow for DCA/BWI even if it does hold. From a weenie's perspective, however, when I consider the 1.8" BWI received during the winter of 11/12 and the 8" in 12/13, we're a long way from being even, so we're due still.

We'll probably have a better shot at significant snow with an early, legitimate phasing.

I'm in no mood for a flat, suppressed piece of crap. It might as well be 80 degrees.

[Ian]

     There was some mention of triple phasing with the St. Patty's Day storm a week out and that went by the wayside a day or 2 later. I know HM doesn't believe in seasonal patterns, and even though I honestly believe he's the best, this old f@rt does believe in seasonal patterns. They can change/break down during the season, however. So the question is whether we hold on to the one we've been in for the past month or so for another 10 days or does it break? I certainly don't know but in light of the way the models look and the fact that discussion of next week is eerily reminiscent of last week's discussions, I'd say it's better than 50/50 it holds. Of course, considering the date, I'm not sure it necessarily means snow for DCA/BWI even if it does hold. From a weenie's perspective, however, when I consider the 1.8" BWI received during the winter of 11/12 and the 8" in 12/13, we're a long way from being even, so we're due still.

 

I don't recall that. I do recall the storm that went to our north last week initially had 1993 as an analog on the Euro and then it ended up trending north every run thereafter.

[Jebman]

Models will be all over the place and the next threat will trend this way and that way but as for me and my house - We shall ride the Bob Chill Express!

 

All Aboard !!!!!

[Wonderdog]

6z GFS brings the coastal pretty close to the coast I like the trend.

[mdsnowlover]

6z GFS brings the coastal pretty close to the coast I like the trend.

at what hour, please

[Ji]

Awful wizards loss and awful overnight euro run

[paulythegun]

EPS looks pretty good last night. 19 members with 3"+ of snow for DCA. Lots of solid hits...

[Bob Chill]

The majority of euro memebers do show a storm. Enough non-storm solutions to give pause but on the flip side, the ones that have storms are either good hits or misses to the east. Few if any rainers from what I can tell.

[HM]

There was some mention of triple phasing with the St. Patty's Day storm a week out and that went by the wayside a day or 2 later. I know HM doesn't believe in seasonal patterns, and even though I honestly believe he's the best, this old f@rt does believe in seasonal patterns. They can change/break down during the season, however. So the question is whether we hold on to the one we've been in for the past month or so for another 10 days or does it break? I certainly don't know but in light of the way the models look and the fact that discussion of next week is eerily reminiscent of last week's discussions, I'd say it's better than 50/50 it holds. Of course, considering the date, I'm not sure it necessarily means snow for DCA/BWI even if it does hold. From a weenie's perspective, however, when I consider the 1.8" BWI received during the winter of 11/12 and the 8" in 12/13, we're a long way from being even, so we're due still.

Two things:

1. The last time the 93 storm showed up on the top of analog charts, the storm ended up a very warm inland runner. I don't think it was ever modeled to be a triple phaser while yesterday's Euro was a triple phaser.

2. I never said I don't believe in a seasonal tendency. I think model trends based on a seasonal perspective of cyclone behavior is nonsense. "Haven't storms been shifting north this year" e.g. Thoughts like that will lead to busts, like it did up in my area on 3/3.

[cae]

The Canadian ensembles backed off a bit, with about 57% showing some snow and 33% showing some rain.  The "Miller A" members generally shifted their tracks east.

 

Right now it looks like the Euro, GFS, and GGEM all show a coastal low developing to our south, with decent ensemble support.  The main question is track, but there's plenty of time to resolve that.  I can only see UKMET out to 144 hours, but it looks like it's going to have more of a Miller B look.