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Season Finale :(


Ji

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There's definitely triple phaser potential with this but the lack of any true -NAO ahead of the amplifying trough is unfavorable. However, the North Pacific is much improved over the last time we had a setup like this.

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Euro is quite interesting. Surface temps a little warm but, not too far off.

It's a slower triple phase, which isn't a bad thing for snow...prevents an inland scenario. However, it also means very fast and a pummeling more likely up north. Still, that is an impressive run.

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Absolutely need the overnight snow, CAD setup and rates...considering how absolutely whacky this winter has been I wouldn't be surprised to see another shot. Definitely signals for something next week as pointed out here.

At least we have last year's March 25th event reminding us that it absolutely can happen with the right setup and (at least predominantly) a nighttime event. I got 3.1" out of that March 25th event last year -- the highest for me of the 2012-13 season.

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At least we have last year's March 25th event reminding us that it absolutely can happen with the right setup and (at least predominantly) a nighttime event. I got 3.1" out of that March 25th event last year -- the highest for me of the 2012-13 season.

That was a great case. As memory serves we were expecting a similar event March 18th which turned out to be less then a good cross hair signature setup east of the blue ridge and especially 95 with nice banding. Bands made all the difference. We actually based a WES case on it for training.

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That was a great case. As memory serves we were expecting a similar event March 18th which turned out to be less then a good cross hair signature setup east of the blue ridge and especially 95 with nice banding. Bands made all the difference. We actually based a WES case on it for training.

Cross hair etc on the 25th event... Meant to put that in

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A nice takeaway today is the ops are showing various looks with multiple vorts and cold close by or overhead. Ensembles agree in a general active pattern with potential. Euro ens last night backed off a good bit but I'm willing to bet that changes later when they come out.

Interesting period shaping up. I agree with HM that without a more classic block, a big phaser would be a fluke. They can happen but chasing it should be met with high caution. I'm starting to feel the odds of snow falling from the sky next week tilting in our favor. Might be another weekend of staring at panels. lol.

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CMC ensembles look different from the op, with more coastal tracks.  The snow signal on the 25th got stronger, with 62% of members showing some snow.  Also 48% showing rain.

 

hNuETLZ.png

 

GEFS showing a weaker snow signal, with about 33% of members showing some snow, and not as much qpf.

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We still have the CAD albeit knife shallow with done WAA overnight. Temps west should be cold enough for light frz ra or frz drizzle. Glaze possible maybe a couple hundredths.

As far as I know, storm threads are usually primarily for bigger events. Someone correct that if needed

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Euro ens ok but a bit east for us on the means. Looks like a pretty good hit MA/ME.

Hr 180 has a look of a weak low to our nw as the coastal gets going. Off of SC. It's going to change a lot so no biggie. Support for a sig storm for someone is there. Control gives us 6"+ fwiw.

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At least we have last year's March 25th event reminding us that it absolutely can happen with the right setup and (at least predominantly) a nighttime event. I got 3.1" out of that March 25th event last year -- the highest for me of the 2012-13 season.

 

That one was really wet, heavy snow, almost just white water...if I'm remembering the correct March 2013 event (we get so many of these rare March snowfalls out this way, it's almost become commonplace).

 

It can happen, but who wants to squeegee all that slop again?

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Cross hair etc on the 25th event... Meant to put that in

The 25th event I will remember well, because I happened to be on the Winter Weather Desk the previous midnight shift before the event (that Thursday morning, 03/23).  I remember coming out with a 2-4" forecast for the Beltway region, which was a bit bullish compared to other local forecasts, especially after "Snowquester" earlier in the month on 03/06.  This was a different case though, it actually had colder air to work with.

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