HM Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 There's definitely triple phaser potential with this but the lack of any true -NAO ahead of the amplifying trough is unfavorable. However, the North Pacific is much improved over the last time we had a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro is quite interesting. Surface temps a little warm but, not too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Well thats an interesting EURO look 168-192... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro clips us then nuke bombs the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Road trip NE? My god lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro is quite interesting. Surface temps a little warm but, not too far off. It's a slower triple phase, which isn't a bad thing for snow...prevents an inland scenario. However, it also means very fast and a pummeling more likely up north. Still, that is an impressive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Definitely good signals next week. More fun to look forward to :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 956mb off of Maine. Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Road trip NE? My god lol. It's not that bad down here...much better up north tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 956mb off of Maine. Road trip? Good day to book a fly fishing tour out of Bar Harbor. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Jesus, i just saw the 204 panel. It probably won't happen, but if it did...its a shame I can't travel now (due to work), because I def would chase a beast like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It's not that bad down here...much better up north tho Aren't the surface temps too high verbatim? Idk there was a decent amount of ridging out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Aren't the surface temps too high verbatim? Idk there was a decent amount of ridging out ahead of it. Yeah..850's are way cold, but we'd be fighting sfc and probably some other layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I hope seasonal trends help!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Absolutely need the overnight snow, CAD setup and rates...considering how absolutely whacky this winter has been I wouldn't be surprised to see another shot. Definitely signals for something next week as pointed out here. At least we have last year's March 25th event reminding us that it absolutely can happen with the right setup and (at least predominantly) a nighttime event. I got 3.1" out of that March 25th event last year -- the highest for me of the 2012-13 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 At least we have last year's March 25th event reminding us that it absolutely can happen with the right setup and (at least predominantly) a nighttime event. I got 3.1" out of that March 25th event last year -- the highest for me of the 2012-13 season. That was a great case. As memory serves we were expecting a similar event March 18th which turned out to be less then a good cross hair signature setup east of the blue ridge and especially 95 with nice banding. Bands made all the difference. We actually based a WES case on it for training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 That was a great case. As memory serves we were expecting a similar event March 18th which turned out to be less then a good cross hair signature setup east of the blue ridge and especially 95 with nice banding. Bands made all the difference. We actually based a WES case on it for training. Cross hair etc on the 25th event... Meant to put that in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 A nice takeaway today is the ops are showing various looks with multiple vorts and cold close by or overhead. Ensembles agree in a general active pattern with potential. Euro ens last night backed off a good bit but I'm willing to bet that changes later when they come out. Interesting period shaping up. I agree with HM that without a more classic block, a big phaser would be a fluke. They can happen but chasing it should be met with high caution. I'm starting to feel the odds of snow falling from the sky next week tilting in our favor. Might be another weekend of staring at panels. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Is there a thread for tonight's event? Predominantly along and west of the blue ridge...light icing ESP Shenandoah valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Holy Lord Jesus....who is driving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We still have the CAD albeit knife shallow with done WAA overnight. Temps west should be cold enough for light frz ra or frz drizzle. Glaze possible maybe a couple hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 WxBell painting 34 inches up north! WOW! Maine that is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 CMC ensembles look different from the op, with more coastal tracks. The snow signal on the 25th got stronger, with 62% of members showing some snow. Also 48% showing rain. GEFS showing a weaker snow signal, with about 33% of members showing some snow, and not as much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We still have the CAD albeit knife shallow with done WAA overnight. Temps west should be cold enough for light frz ra or frz drizzle. Glaze possible maybe a couple hundredths. As far as I know, storm threads are usually primarily for bigger events. Someone correct that if needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Nightime is still the rightime as temps only have to be -10 from average to make it work. I think we are going to have to get to a 70/50* time frame regime before we are in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro ens ok but a bit east for us on the means. Looks like a pretty good hit MA/ME. Hr 180 has a look of a weak low to our nw as the coastal gets going. Off of SC. It's going to change a lot so no biggie. Support for a sig storm for someone is there. Control gives us 6"+ fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 At least we have last year's March 25th event reminding us that it absolutely can happen with the right setup and (at least predominantly) a nighttime event. I got 3.1" out of that March 25th event last year -- the highest for me of the 2012-13 season. That one was really wet, heavy snow, almost just white water...if I'm remembering the correct March 2013 event (we get so many of these rare March snowfalls out this way, it's almost become commonplace). It can happen, but who wants to squeegee all that slop again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 JMA is a big hit. Especially for New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 JMA is a big hit. Especially for New England JMA hasn't scored a coup in a long time and didn't do that well with St. Patty's Day I'd take what it's showing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Cross hair etc on the 25th event... Meant to put that in The 25th event I will remember well, because I happened to be on the Winter Weather Desk the previous midnight shift before the event (that Thursday morning, 03/23). I remember coming out with a 2-4" forecast for the Beltway region, which was a bit bullish compared to other local forecasts, especially after "Snowquester" earlier in the month on 03/06. This was a different case though, it actually had colder air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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