Ian Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 RAP is pretty terrible IMBY. Hopefully it's wrong. nice looping hodo tho. snownado http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/RAP_255_2014032422_F18_39.0000N_77.0000W_HODO.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 really loves Carroll County. higher elevations may stay near or below freezing through a good part of the event. that makes a huge difference. tomorrow could be a big deck pick day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 really loves Carroll County. We're due. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I'd be happy to see several inches on my deck and nothing on my driveway. I've gotten to the point where I'm starting to think about ratios. The upper levels look plenty cold, with only a thin layer near the surface at or above freezing (imby). Cobb is showing ratios of 16:1 to 20:1 in places where it snows. That's probably overdone, but I think some of the forecast busts in the last couple of storms can be at least partially explained by misprediction of ratios. In places where snow does accumulate, they could be greater than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Would be 4th time for me since moving to the area (78, 90, 13, and 14 if teh model is right). Getting ho hum. Wow - 4 times in nearly 40 years.. didn't realize it was so prolific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I need 3.75 to reach 50. It's gonna happen.......in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 higher elevations may stay near or below freezing through a good part of the event. that makes a huge difference. tomorrow could be a big deck pick day. Bet you can't say big deck pick day three times fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Wow - 4 times in nearly 40 years.. didn't realize it was so prolific March snowfalls remain rare for DCA...decent return rate for IAD on 3/25s. Interesting that it never snowed at all at IAD before the 60s...seems to be a more recent phenom. Of all the numbers to watch tomorrow, 1.2 is the most interesting. That is what IAD needs for 3rd snowiest season on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 1" gives me 60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 WWA now out, 1-3" for DC, 2-4" for the favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 J Berk map has basically nada DC metro due to relatively light intensity and falling after mid morning. Likes 2-4 west(early morning, colder) and 2-4 east towards the coast with snow falling in the evening and at night with developing coastal. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 higher elevations may stay near or below freezing through a good part of the event. that makes a huge difference. tomorrow could be a big deck pick day. My favorite kind of day, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I made an obs thread, keep model stuff here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43299-march-25-snow-event-obs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Interesting that it never snowed at all at IAD before the 60s...seems to be a more recent phenom. Might have something to do with IAD not existing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 What an ugly but probably pretty good map. Ugly yeah, good idk lol. They over think it sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Clear skies and 28.1* Waiting to be NAM'd MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 WWA now out, 1-3" for DC, 2-4" for the favored. A bit silly to have a WWA for an inch or 2 of snow on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Might have something to do with IAD not existing Right but teh land was always there. It either never snowed or if it did somebody forget to right it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Right but teh land was always there. It either never snowed or if it did somebody forget to right it down. They don't take measurements on a random field, thinking "Hey! One day this will be a great place to take snow measurements for needbiggerboat 60 years later!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Right but teh land was always there. It either never snowed or if it did somebody forget to right it down. The latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 They don't take measurements on a random field, thinking "Hey! One day this will be a great place to take snow measurements for needbiggerboat 60 years later!" Well, they don't do that specifically for needbiggerboat, but there are some fields with measurements long long ago. The current location of Dulles Airport wasn't one of them, though. As far as I know, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 March snowfalls remain rare for DCA...decent return rate for IAD on 3/25s. Interesting that it never snowed at all at IAD before the 60s...seems to be a more recent phenom. Of all the numbers to watch tomorrow, 1.2 is the most interesting. That is what IAD needs for 3rd snowiest season on record. It's crazy to me that IAD needs only 1.2 to be 3rd snowiest ever. I have close to 50 and this was a great winter but it feels pedestrian to me compared to 09-10 and 02-03. I guess the difference is the lack of a biggie. I had 18 inches in the February storm but it didn't feel that epic for some reason. One thing this winter will be remembered for is duration. It has felt like deep winter since Thanksgiving with basically no break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Well, they don't do that specifically for needbiggerboat, but there are some fields with measurements long long ago. The current location of Dulles Airport wasn't one of them, though. As far as I know, anyway. There was nothing out there before that. Every Dulles record needs an asterisk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Well, they don't do that specifically for needbiggerboat, but there are some fields with measurements long long ago. The current location of Dulles Airport wasn't one of them, though. As far as I know, anyway. I actually had no idea they decided to measure in some random fields. I always figured they measured in the town centers pre-IAD. That is actually really neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Might have something to do with IAD not existingLOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Number of forecasters had mins too high, already low 30's everywhere except DCA. Potomac always gets offered as excuse for DCA inaccuracy but wonder why Annapolis does not have this problem and it's body of water is 5X minimum??? Clouds on doorstep, dewpoints 10-15, folks this is going to be another all snower and another surprise accumulator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 LOL. Looks like York just misses out on the good stuff tomorrow. Will be a lot tougher to spot varmit on the roadside...dinner at Golden Corral for you I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Looks like York just misses out on the good stuff tomorrow. Will be a lot tougher to spot varmit on the roadside...dinner at Golden Corral for you I suppose.Haha, I don't think we even have a Golden Corral here. Have to settle for some authentic I-talian food - Olive Garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I posted this in obs, but relevant in this thread too IAD 8PM soundings...very cold except for lower 1200' +/- but wet bulbs are still well below freezing LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1010 88 3.0 -16.0 23 19.0 -2.4 0 0 275.4 275.5 270.2 278.5 1.08 1 1000 168 2.6 -16.4 23 19.0 -2.7 30 2 275.8 275.9 270.4 278.8 1.06 2 925 791 -3.3 -18.3 30 15.0 -7.0 315 3 275.9 276.1 270.4 278.8 0.98 3 870 1272 -7.9 -18.9 41 11.0 -10.4 275 14 276.0 276.2 270.5 278.9 0.99 4 850 1452 -9.1 -20.1 40 11.0 -11.5 275 16 276.6 276.8 270.7 279.3 0.91 5 792 1994 -13.5 -22.5 47 9.0 -15.2 270 24 277.6 277.7 271.1 279.9 0.79 6 739 2518 -16.3 -32.3 24 16.0 -18.5 284 36 280.1 280.1 271.8 281.1 0.34 7 730 2610 -16.1 -35.1 18 19.0 -18.6 288 38 281.3 281.3 272.3 282.1 0.26 8 724 2673 -15.9 -31.9 24 16.0 -18.2 291 39 282.1 282.2 273.1 283.3 0.36 9 703 2894 -16.9 -26.9 42 10.0 -18.6 295 41 283.4 283.5 274.2 285.3 0.60 10 700 2926 -16.7 -25.7 46 9.0 -18.3 295 41 284.0 284.1 274.6 286.1 0.67 11 694 2991 -16.3 -24.3 50 8.0 -17.8 293 42 285.1 285.3 275.3 287.5 0.77 12 654 3435 -17.7 -24.7 54 7.0 -19.0 282 50 288.4 288.6 277.1 290.9 0.79 13 636 3643 -18.9 -26.9 49 8.0 -20.3 289 55 289.4 289.5 277.4 291.5 0.66 14 590 4198 -21.3 -38.3 20 17.0 -23.2 286 72 292.9 292.9 278.4 293.7 0.24 15 552 4686 -23.7 -44.7 13 21.0 -25.6 288 76 295.7 295.7 279.6 296.1 0.13 16 529 4995 -25.5 -45.5 14 20.0 -27.2 288 79 297.1 297.1 280.3 297.6 0.12 17 500 5400 -29.1 -42.1 27 13.0 -30.2 280 84 297.6 297.6 280.6 298.2 0.19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I posted this in obs, but relevant in this thread too IAD 8PM soundings...very cold except for lower 1200' +/- but wet bulbs are still well below freezing LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1010 88 3.0 -16.0 23 19.0 -2.4 0 0 275.4 275.5 270.2 278.5 1.08 1 1000 168 2.6 -16.4 23 19.0 -2.7 30 2 275.8 275.9 270.4 278.8 1.06 2 925 791 -3.3 -18.3 30 15.0 -7.0 315 3 275.9 276.1 270.4 278.8 0.98 3 870 1272 -7.9 -18.9 41 11.0 -10.4 275 14 276.0 276.2 270.5 278.9 0.99 4 850 1452 -9.1 -20.1 40 11.0 -11.5 275 16 276.6 276.8 270.7 279.3 0.91 5 792 1994 -13.5 -22.5 47 9.0 -15.2 270 24 277.6 277.7 271.1 279.9 0.79 6 739 2518 -16.3 -32.3 24 16.0 -18.5 284 36 280.1 280.1 271.8 281.1 0.34 7 730 2610 -16.1 -35.1 18 19.0 -18.6 288 38 281.3 281.3 272.3 282.1 0.26 8 724 2673 -15.9 -31.9 24 16.0 -18.2 291 39 282.1 282.2 273.1 283.3 0.36 9 703 2894 -16.9 -26.9 42 10.0 -18.6 295 41 283.4 283.5 274.2 285.3 0.60 10 700 2926 -16.7 -25.7 46 9.0 -18.3 295 41 284.0 284.1 274.6 286.1 0.67 11 694 2991 -16.3 -24.3 50 8.0 -17.8 293 42 285.1 285.3 275.3 287.5 0.77 12 654 3435 -17.7 -24.7 54 7.0 -19.0 282 50 288.4 288.6 277.1 290.9 0.79 13 636 3643 -18.9 -26.9 49 8.0 -20.3 289 55 289.4 289.5 277.4 291.5 0.66 14 590 4198 -21.3 -38.3 20 17.0 -23.2 286 72 292.9 292.9 278.4 293.7 0.24 15 552 4686 -23.7 -44.7 13 21.0 -25.6 288 76 295.7 295.7 279.6 296.1 0.13 16 529 4995 -25.5 -45.5 14 20.0 -27.2 288 79 297.1 297.1 280.3 297.6 0.12 17 500 5400 -29.1 -42.1 27 13.0 -30.2 280 84 297.6 297.6 280.6 298.2 0.19 even at the end of the rap when the sfc starts to "torch" (at least around us) it's quickly quite cold above. it might not do as well as at night but could be some fun times regardless. someone in n md prob won't get much above freezing and will get like 6-8. partly kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.