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Season Finale :(


Ji

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really loves Carroll County.

higher elevations may stay near or below freezing through a good part of the event. that makes a huge difference. tomorrow could be a big deck pick day.

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I'd be happy to see several inches on my deck and nothing on my driveway. 

 

I've gotten to the point where I'm starting to think about ratios.  The upper levels look plenty cold, with only a thin layer near the surface at or above freezing (imby).  Cobb is showing ratios of 16:1 to 20:1 in places where it snows.  That's probably overdone, but I think some of the forecast busts in the last couple of storms can be at least partially explained by misprediction of ratios.  In places where snow does accumulate, they could be greater than 10:1.

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Wow - 4 times in nearly 40 years.. didn't realize it was so prolific

March snowfalls remain rare for DCA...decent return rate for IAD on 3/25s. Interesting that it never snowed at all at IAD before the 60s...seems to be a more recent phenom.

Of all the numbers to watch tomorrow, 1.2 is the most interesting. That is what IAD needs for 3rd snowiest season on record.

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They don't take measurements on a random field, thinking "Hey! One day this will be a great place to take snow measurements for needbiggerboat 60 years later!" 

Well, they don't do that specifically for needbiggerboat, but there are some fields with measurements long long ago.  The current location of Dulles Airport wasn't one of them, though.  As far as I know, anyway.

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March snowfalls remain rare for DCA...decent return rate for IAD on 3/25s. Interesting that it never snowed at all at IAD before the 60s...seems to be a more recent phenom.

Of all the numbers to watch tomorrow, 1.2 is the most interesting. That is what IAD needs for 3rd snowiest season on record.

It's crazy to me that IAD needs only 1.2 to be 3rd snowiest ever. I have close to 50 and this was a great winter but it feels pedestrian to me compared to 09-10 and 02-03. I guess the difference is the lack of a biggie. I had 18 inches in the February storm but it didn't feel that epic for some reason. One thing this winter will be remembered for is duration. It has felt like deep winter since Thanksgiving with basically no break.

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Well, they don't do that specifically for needbiggerboat, but there are some fields with measurements long long ago.  The current location of Dulles Airport wasn't one of them, though.  As far as I know, anyway.

There was nothing out there before that. Every Dulles record needs an asterisk. ;)

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Well, they don't do that specifically for needbiggerboat, but there are some fields with measurements long long ago.  The current location of Dulles Airport wasn't one of them, though.  As far as I know, anyway.

I actually had no idea they decided to measure in some random fields. I always figured they measured in the town centers pre-IAD. That is actually really neat.

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Number of forecasters had mins too high, already low 30's everywhere except DCA. Potomac always gets offered as excuse for DCA inaccuracy but wonder why Annapolis does not have this problem and it's body of water is 5X minimum???

Clouds on doorstep, dewpoints 10-15, folks this is going to be another all snower and another surprise accumulator.

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I posted this in obs, but relevant in this thread too

IAD 8PM soundings...very cold except for lower 1200' +/- but wet bulbs are still well below freezing

 

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1010    88   3.0 -16.0  23 19.0  -2.4   0   0 275.4 275.5 270.2 278.5  1.08

  1 1000   168   2.6 -16.4  23 19.0  -2.7  30   2 275.8 275.9 270.4 278.8  1.06

  2  925   791  -3.3 -18.3  30 15.0  -7.0 315   3 275.9 276.1 270.4 278.8  0.98

  3  870  1272  -7.9 -18.9  41 11.0 -10.4 275  14 276.0 276.2 270.5 278.9  0.99

  4  850  1452  -9.1 -20.1  40 11.0 -11.5 275  16 276.6 276.8 270.7 279.3  0.91

  5  792  1994 -13.5 -22.5  47  9.0 -15.2 270  24 277.6 277.7 271.1 279.9  0.79

  6  739  2518 -16.3 -32.3  24 16.0 -18.5 284  36 280.1 280.1 271.8 281.1  0.34

  7  730  2610 -16.1 -35.1  18 19.0 -18.6 288  38 281.3 281.3 272.3 282.1  0.26

  8  724  2673 -15.9 -31.9  24 16.0 -18.2 291  39 282.1 282.2 273.1 283.3  0.36

  9  703  2894 -16.9 -26.9  42 10.0 -18.6 295  41 283.4 283.5 274.2 285.3  0.60

 10  700  2926 -16.7 -25.7  46  9.0 -18.3 295  41 284.0 284.1 274.6 286.1  0.67

 11  694  2991 -16.3 -24.3  50  8.0 -17.8 293  42 285.1 285.3 275.3 287.5  0.77

 12  654  3435 -17.7 -24.7  54  7.0 -19.0 282  50 288.4 288.6 277.1 290.9  0.79

 13  636  3643 -18.9 -26.9  49  8.0 -20.3 289  55 289.4 289.5 277.4 291.5  0.66

 14  590  4198 -21.3 -38.3  20 17.0 -23.2 286  72 292.9 292.9 278.4 293.7  0.24

 15  552  4686 -23.7 -44.7  13 21.0 -25.6 288  76 295.7 295.7 279.6 296.1  0.13

 16  529  4995 -25.5 -45.5  14 20.0 -27.2 288  79 297.1 297.1 280.3 297.6  0.12

 17  500  5400 -29.1 -42.1  27 13.0 -30.2 280  84 297.6 297.6 280.6 298.2  0.19

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I posted this in obs, but relevant in this thread too

IAD 8PM soundings...very cold except for lower 1200' +/- but wet bulbs are still well below freezing

 

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1010    88   3.0 -16.0  23 19.0  -2.4   0   0 275.4 275.5 270.2 278.5  1.08

  1 1000   168   2.6 -16.4  23 19.0  -2.7  30   2 275.8 275.9 270.4 278.8  1.06

  2  925   791  -3.3 -18.3  30 15.0  -7.0 315   3 275.9 276.1 270.4 278.8  0.98

  3  870  1272  -7.9 -18.9  41 11.0 -10.4 275  14 276.0 276.2 270.5 278.9  0.99

  4  850  1452  -9.1 -20.1  40 11.0 -11.5 275  16 276.6 276.8 270.7 279.3  0.91

  5  792  1994 -13.5 -22.5  47  9.0 -15.2 270  24 277.6 277.7 271.1 279.9  0.79

  6  739  2518 -16.3 -32.3  24 16.0 -18.5 284  36 280.1 280.1 271.8 281.1  0.34

  7  730  2610 -16.1 -35.1  18 19.0 -18.6 288  38 281.3 281.3 272.3 282.1  0.26

  8  724  2673 -15.9 -31.9  24 16.0 -18.2 291  39 282.1 282.2 273.1 283.3  0.36

  9  703  2894 -16.9 -26.9  42 10.0 -18.6 295  41 283.4 283.5 274.2 285.3  0.60

 10  700  2926 -16.7 -25.7  46  9.0 -18.3 295  41 284.0 284.1 274.6 286.1  0.67

 11  694  2991 -16.3 -24.3  50  8.0 -17.8 293  42 285.1 285.3 275.3 287.5  0.77

 12  654  3435 -17.7 -24.7  54  7.0 -19.0 282  50 288.4 288.6 277.1 290.9  0.79

 13  636  3643 -18.9 -26.9  49  8.0 -20.3 289  55 289.4 289.5 277.4 291.5  0.66

 14  590  4198 -21.3 -38.3  20 17.0 -23.2 286  72 292.9 292.9 278.4 293.7  0.24

 15  552  4686 -23.7 -44.7  13 21.0 -25.6 288  76 295.7 295.7 279.6 296.1  0.13

 16  529  4995 -25.5 -45.5  14 20.0 -27.2 288  79 297.1 297.1 280.3 297.6  0.12

 17  500  5400 -29.1 -42.1  27 13.0 -30.2 280  84 297.6 297.6 280.6 298.2  0.19

 

even at the end of the rap when the sfc starts to "torch" (at least around us) it's quickly quite cold above. it might not do as well as at night but could be some fun times regardless.

 

someone in n md prob won't get much above freezing and will get like 6-8. partly kidding ;)

 

post-1615-0-83336100-1395711423_thumb.pn

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