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Season Finale :(


Ji

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How much did OC get in the St Patty day storm? I know some places in southern DE had 8-9 inches.

There's no official observer there but the closest observation to OC which is only a few miles from OC saw 6.2" and based off the OC live cam I saw it looked about that much.

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Wonder if the various DOTs will bother treating the roads in advance of this storm, given their blown budgets and marginal temps.  There's so much sand and whatnot on the roads already that they shouldn't need to.

 

The Baltimore beltway is already pre-treated, which is amusing to me

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For me, these two images pretty much take me out of denial and seal the deal.  Links are time-sensitive.  Clouds in Gulfmex are basically zipping to the East at 5pm Mon.  If you extrapolate from current motions, clouds in Midwest won't catch up with Gulfmex stuff until considerably east of the coast, looks like well-east of OBX.  Nothing much going on in MS-AL-GA in terms of cloud development, which I think we'd need for ANY CHANCE of having more than just a white slop around DC/C MD area and south/SE.

isarun.gif

 

Maybe they're moving slightly to the ENE of E, if you wanna be an optimist.  Water vapor pretty much confirms same.

sat_wv_us_loop.gif

 

Just visualizing both areas of energy, it's hard to imagine them hooking up and developing closer to the coast.  Nothing indicative in upper levels to our south/SW.  Would have to start seeing some development toward the NNE from the Gulf/SE US states pretty soon.  For something good, I'd be looking for at least some development in MS-AL-GA, which ain't happening.  Nothing developing offshore at this point seems to have a chance to come back west at this latitude, looking at upper winds.

 

I'm not stating anything we don't already expect.  These two images just paint the visual for me.  Something in the cloud formations would have to start appearing to our S/SW very soon.

 

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DCA is prob north of .4" on the hi res euro.. at least .4" tho. For some reason it doesn't impact my thinking too much. Unless we're ripping it's a lot of white rain probably. Melt in between stick etc. 

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DCA is prob north of .4" on the hi res euro.. at least .4" tho. For some reason it doesn't impact my thinking too much. Unless we're ripping it's a lot of white rain probably. Melt in between stick etc. 

dp's are in the single digits with winds generally out of the west to nw, which won't be bringing in a lot of moisture between now and tomorrow

I think air temps, though still marginal, won't be as much the problem wrt accumulating snowfall as ground temps causing snow to melt pretty quickly

imho, anything that falls between 11AM-5PM is probably wasted short of unexpected changes that bring in mod-heavy snow

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dp's are in the single digits with winds generally out of the west to nw, which won't be bringing in a lot of moisture between now and tomorrow

I think air temps, though still marginal, won't be as much the problem wrt accumulating snowfall as ground temps causing snow to melt pretty quickly

imho, anything that falls between 11AM-5PM is probably wasted short of unexpected changes that bring in mod-heavy snow

Trickiest part is there isn't much to base ideas on. I could see forecasts busting low again I suppose. I think we need like sustained 1"/hr rates though which is tough to get for an extended period of time. Even the new GFS pumps out like .1" over 3 hour periods. It could be missing localized maxes etc. It'll be interesting to see it come together.
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So it's trending a little more to the NW. Still have 12 hours to get 50 miles.

Not really trending NW as much as that frontal zone is uberizing. The low ends up way offshore overall.
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it is like the worst possible timing for a March 25th event..7am to 8pm....I'm curious to see what results....

As you've pointed out, that's similar to the time frame for 3/24/90...that one started at 8 am at DCA and ended more or less by 4 pm with the peak between 11 am and 1 pm. Gotta think that's the 'best case' scenario here. 

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As you've pointed out, that's similar to the time frame for 3/24/90...that one started at 8 am at DCA and ended more or less by 4 pm with the peak between 11 am and 1 pm. Gotta think that's the 'best case' scenario here. 

 

1/2 mi viz and 33 should do it....that'll be good enough for grass and decks...hopefully the snow is good sticking snow...

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1/2 mi viz and 33 should do it....that'll be good enough for grass and decks...hopefully the snow is good sticking snow...

A low ceiling with quarter sized dendrites that thump a few hours earlier than models forecast (6-8am) is the best we can hope for. Roads are brined in all of NOVA so roads will be fine, just slushy in the heaviest rates. Either way it's a win if anything can stick to the decks/grass and trees. One good thing is that the ground was frozen at the surface today until just a few hours ago so we at least have that.

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1/2 mi viz and 33 should do it....that'll be good enough for grass and decks...hopefully the snow is good sticking snow...

Yup, I agree. For comparison, I checked 3/14/99- best ob at DCA was 3/4 mi visibility at 34 F and a period of 1 mi visibility at 33 F. Just that difference meant practically no grass accumulations. 

Of course, 3/30/64 was a different beast-- 0.4 mi at 31 F (8 am), 0.2 mi at 30 F (9 am), and 0.5 mi at 29 F (10 am).

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