CAPE Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 LOL...and we all know how right they were with the last storm How much did OC get in the St Patty day storm? I know some places in southern DE had 8-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How much did OC get in the St Patty day storm? I know some places in southern DE had 8-9 inches. There's no official observer there but the closest observation to OC which is only a few miles from OC saw 6.2" and based off the OC live cam I saw it looked about that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 There's no official observer there but the closest observation to OC which is only a few miles from OC saw 6.2" and based off the OC live cam I saw it looked about that much. Might be watching the Boardwalk cam later tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Wonder if the various DOTs will bother treating the roads in advance of this storm, given their blown budgets and marginal temps. There's so much sand and whatnot on the roads already that they shouldn't need to. The Baltimore beltway is already pre-treated, which is amusing to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Nice inching back west at the beginning by the NAM (it's within 48 hrs, I can say it). Congrats to OC on .75" of RA/SN mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Here are approximate totals for DC....maybe we can squeeze out 1-2" on a snowboard 12z GFS - 0.30 18z NAM - 0.35 18z Hi Res NAM - 0.25 12z Euro - 0.35" 12z GGEM - 0.20" 15z SREF - 0.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 For me, these two images pretty much take me out of denial and seal the deal. Links are time-sensitive. Clouds in Gulfmex are basically zipping to the East at 5pm Mon. If you extrapolate from current motions, clouds in Midwest won't catch up with Gulfmex stuff until considerably east of the coast, looks like well-east of OBX. Nothing much going on in MS-AL-GA in terms of cloud development, which I think we'd need for ANY CHANCE of having more than just a white slop around DC/C MD area and south/SE. Maybe they're moving slightly to the ENE of E, if you wanna be an optimist. Water vapor pretty much confirms same. Just visualizing both areas of energy, it's hard to imagine them hooking up and developing closer to the coast. Nothing indicative in upper levels to our south/SW. Would have to start seeing some development toward the NNE from the Gulf/SE US states pretty soon. For something good, I'd be looking for at least some development in MS-AL-GA, which ain't happening. Nothing developing offshore at this point seems to have a chance to come back west at this latitude, looking at upper winds. I'm not stating anything we don't already expect. These two images just paint the visual for me. Something in the cloud formations would have to start appearing to our S/SW very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 DCA is prob north of .4" on the hi res euro.. at least .4" tho. For some reason it doesn't impact my thinking too much. Unless we're ripping it's a lot of white rain probably. Melt in between stick etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 DCA is prob north of .4" on the hi res euro.. at least .4" tho. For some reason it doesn't impact my thinking too much. Unless we're ripping it's a lot of white rain probably. Melt in between stick etc. dp's are in the single digits with winds generally out of the west to nw, which won't be bringing in a lot of moisture between now and tomorrow I think air temps, though still marginal, won't be as much the problem wrt accumulating snowfall as ground temps causing snow to melt pretty quickly imho, anything that falls between 11AM-5PM is probably wasted short of unexpected changes that bring in mod-heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z gfs is a bit snowier than 12z. 18z gfs always delivers the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Wow, the gfs has some pretty intense frotogenesis. 3-4" according to the instantweathermaps maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Wow dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 dp's are in the single digits with winds generally out of the west to nw, which won't be bringing in a lot of moisture between now and tomorrow I think air temps, though still marginal, won't be as much the problem wrt accumulating snowfall as ground temps causing snow to melt pretty quickly imho, anything that falls between 11AM-5PM is probably wasted short of unexpected changes that bring in mod-heavy snow Trickiest part is there isn't much to base ideas on. I could see forecasts busting low again I suppose. I think we need like sustained 1"/hr rates though which is tough to get for an extended period of time. Even the new GFS pumps out like .1" over 3 hour periods. It could be missing localized maxes etc. It'll be interesting to see it come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Boom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Boom? It's just one of those winters...the area can't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Maybe I'll just go with my final call for the last storm of 0-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Boom? happyhour1.JPG Happy hour once again delivers? I'm really going to miss SnowTV come Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Maybe I'll just go with my final call for the last storm of 0-9" Gfs gives dc 3 times more QPF than Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Wow, the gfs has some pretty intense frotogenesis. 3-4" according to the instantweathermaps maps. this is a sneaky nice spot here for DC area....especially if you can get real good rates like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 it is like the worst possible timing for a March 25th event..7am to 8pm....I'm curious to see what results.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Are the GOM clouds you refer to really in the mix anyway? I thought the midwest trough was the energy that was going to explode in the ocean. If it could only pivot left at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Boom? happyhour1.JPG So it's trending a little more to the NW. Still have 12 hours to get 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So it's trending a little more to the NW. Still have 12 hours to get 50 miles.Not really trending NW as much as that frontal zone is uberizing. The low ends up way offshore overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 it is like the worst possible timing for a March 25th event..7am to 8pm....I'm curious to see what results.... I'm going to try and somehow measure an honest inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 it is like the worst possible timing for a March 25th event..7am to 8pm....I'm curious to see what results.... As you've pointed out, that's similar to the time frame for 3/24/90...that one started at 8 am at DCA and ended more or less by 4 pm with the peak between 11 am and 1 pm. Gotta think that's the 'best case' scenario here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So it's trending a little more to the NW. Still have 12 hours to get 50 miles. the stripe of frotogen precip has been showing up for days but it trended notably wider with coverage today. And a bit juicier if you blend everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 As you've pointed out, that's similar to the time frame for 3/24/90...that one started at 8 am at DCA and ended more or less by 4 pm with the peak between 11 am and 1 pm. Gotta think that's the 'best case' scenario here. 1/2 mi viz and 33 should do it....that'll be good enough for grass and decks...hopefully the snow is good sticking snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 1/2 mi viz and 33 should do it....that'll be good enough for grass and decks...hopefully the snow is good sticking snow... A low ceiling with quarter sized dendrites that thump a few hours earlier than models forecast (6-8am) is the best we can hope for. Roads are brined in all of NOVA so roads will be fine, just slushy in the heaviest rates. Either way it's a win if anything can stick to the decks/grass and trees. One good thing is that the ground was frozen at the surface today until just a few hours ago so we at least have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 1/2 mi viz and 33 should do it....that'll be good enough for grass and decks...hopefully the snow is good sticking snow... Yup, I agree. For comparison, I checked 3/14/99- best ob at DCA was 3/4 mi visibility at 34 F and a period of 1 mi visibility at 33 F. Just that difference meant practically no grass accumulations. Of course, 3/30/64 was a different beast-- 0.4 mi at 31 F (8 am), 0.2 mi at 30 F (9 am), and 0.5 mi at 29 F (10 am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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