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Season Finale :(


Ji

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One problem is a lot of the big names in the media forecast for potential these days.. even NWS does to some degree.  In a year like this it works out more often than not but for the same reason weenies got a big name in 09-10.  I like Andrew Freedman and he's a great writer but I thought the title of his piece last week was ridiculous (hopefully it was editors).. "Blizzard possible in NYC"... just because "a shift of 100+ miles" could make a huge difference doesn't mean people need to go there.  Some of the most quoted people like Eric Holthaus are pretty much hypesters as well. Last night he was talking 6-10 inches being possible in NYC still which made absolutely no sense.  

 

Agreed, hold off on the hype for a bit. Laying out the red carpet for a storm 5-6 days out is a bit imprudent.

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RGEM looks totally plausible if this was 11-12 or 12-13. This year I'm not so sure. 

 

attachicon.gifrgemsno.JPG

If any place is going to be affected by the developing coastal in the MA, it would be coastal DE and SNJ. Those areas could be impacted by frontogenetic forcing/deform zone for a time. NAM is suggesting this as well. Could see a few inches there if everything times right(surface temps more an issue there) and the heavier bands don't end up completely offshore.

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One problem is a lot of the big names in the media forecast for potential these days.. even NWS does to some degree. In a year like this it works out more often than not but for the same reason weenies got a big name in 09-10. I like Andrew Freedman and he's a great writer but I thought the title of his piece last week was ridiculous (hopefully it was editors).. "Blizzard possible in NYC"... just because "a shift of 100+ miles" could make a huge difference doesn't mean people need to go there. Some of the most quoted people like Eric Holthaus are pretty much hypesters as well. Last night he was talking 6-10 inches being possible in NYC still which made absolutely no sense.

It's pretty bad. It's become a "race to be first" with no regard for NWP limitations at medium leads or even model trends. The euro had a lot to do with it. It nailed some stuff last year at long leads and became a household name. Then all the media euro huggers looked kinda dumb this year.

I never thought I'd say this but our subforum is actually more reserved than many "pros in the spotlight". It's weird. I'm sure some would argue against this but I think we showed extensive self weenie control this year and did a good job laying out the risks even while discussing best case scenarios.

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One problem is a lot of the big names in the media forecast for potential these days.. even NWS does to some degree.  In a year like this it works out more often than not but for the same reason weenies got a big name in 09-10.  I like Andrew Freedman and he's a great writer but I thought the title of his piece last week was ridiculous (hopefully it was editors).. "Blizzard possible in NYC"... just because "a shift of 100+ miles" could make a huge difference doesn't mean people need to go there.  Some of the most quoted people like Eric Holthaus are pretty much hypesters as well. Last night he was talking 6-10 inches being possible in NYC still which made absolutely no sense.

IMO a part of this is due to the expansion of all types of media and resources, and the evolution of reporting and informing standards.

Only several decades ago, options for news and weather information were extremely limited....a handful of TV stations, a local and a few national newspapers, local radio stations, etc. Now, there are dozens if not hundreds of unique outlets for news and weather beyond the NWS and 3 local TV networks. Cable TV and the internet have been the primary driving forces. Attention spans are much more diffuse and saturated, thus the competition for ear and eyeball share is fierce.

Secondarily, reporting and informing standards have evolved away from facts and more towards opinion and sensationlism. Primarily due to the environment laid out above.

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Even Cape Cod gets grazed now.

 

I wouldn't spend much time worrying about up here.  The GFS/NAM are very unlikely to be right with the way they're handling the eventual phasing of the two systems.  The western component will likely continue to ramp up in the models going forward and in turn that'll end up pulling the most eastern solutions NW.

 

Another apparently very poor performance by the local modeling branch.

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I wouldn't spend much time worrying about up here.  The GFS/NAM are very unlikely to be right with the way they're handling the eventual phasing of the two systems.  The western component will likely continue to ramp up in the models going forward and in turn that'll end up pulling the most eastern solutions NW.

 

Another apparently very poor performance by the local modeling branch.

 

Hopefully you guys get pummeled. We need at least one good hit from this storm.

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I wouldn't spend much time worrying about up here.  The GFS/NAM are very unlikely to be right with the way they're handling the eventual phasing of the two systems.  The western component will likely continue to ramp up in the models going forward and in turn that'll end up pulling the most eastern solutions NW.

 

Another apparently very poor performance by the local modeling branch.

 

Sound analysis.. what's your local model of choice? 

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The trends over past 3 days have all gone the wrong direction for us -- that's clear.  Even the UKMET has gone to the east now.

 

 

On the flip side, we've rarely had a good feel about storm outcomes (i.e., the eventual "reality") prior to 12 hours before an event.  But there's still always the possibility of over-performance, despite what the modeling tells us (as with the last system).

 

I'll be happy just to see snow falling from the skies one more time ... and then it's time for me to move on.

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Sound analysis.. what's your local model of choice? 

 

The ABN, anything but ncep.

 

GGEM doesn't seem unreasonable at this stage and isn't far off the ensemble mean track from last nights Euro, and many of todays models, just deeper.

 

BTW I screwed up, was on my phone thought I was responding in the SE forum.  Obviously different story for where you guys are...

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Baro, at 30.25 and that is not a suppressive reading, in fact it's about perfect for 18-24 hours in advance, plus it's peaked.  This has been some of the problem with pre event ideas this winter that precip will be south or east-suppressed.  The air has been extremely cold but the baros. have not been 30.4/30.5 and there has been some computer/model misreading of that.  Looks like total cloud cover will not occur beforre midnight so going to be able to get cold again.  Get this going by 8am tomorrow, get some evaporational out of it and then steady enough rates to mute the radiant and tomorrow would set some low max records.

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Euro is pretty wet tho nothing by 12z and mid-30s with max precip.. not sure. 

 

It was a notable shift in qpf amounts and coverage. Hard to complain because the timing sucks. Maybe euro is catching on to better interacting with the deepening coast and ul energy swinging through. Or maybe I'm just a weenie. 

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It was a notable shift in qpf amounts and coverage. Hard to complain because the timing sucks. Maybe euro is catching on to better interacting with the deepening coast and ul energy swinging through. Or maybe I'm just a weenie. 

The midday panel seems a little wonky.  I guess it could happen. Still no major reason to go much above 1" in grass as risk in the city at least. 

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The midday panel seems a little wonky.  I guess it could happen. Still no major reason to go much above 1" in grass as risk in the city at least. 

 

 

Seems unlikely anybody (except maybe delmarva) tops 2". And even if they did they better measure quick. Streets will get nothing and like it. 

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I wouldn't spend much time worrying about up here.  The GFS/NAM are very unlikely to be right with the way they're handling the eventual phasing of the two systems.  The western component will likely continue to ramp up in the models going forward and in turn that'll end up pulling the most eastern solutions NW.

 

Another apparently very poor performance by the local modeling branch.

This a great post.

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I for one think we may accumulate better than some believe. It's 230pm and I'm sitting at 34f under a bright late march sun. That has to count for something.

Today's a better air mass than tomorrow. If we get heavy snow at like 33-34 it'll probably stick OK while it's ripping. Roads have almost no shot other than some quick slush maybe. 

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Will there be advisories posted?

 

Will there be advisories posted?

 

Well, this is from LWX morning discussion, not that it can't change ....

 

 

SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRASSY   

SURFACES WITH SLUSH ON ROADWAYS DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW DUE TO THE   

BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SLY FLOW. WINTER   

WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO   

SNOW DURING THE MORNING (AND SOME OF THE EVENING) COMMUTE WHICH ONLY  

REQUIRES LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR ONE INCH IN THE OPM COMMUTING AREA   

(TWO INCHES ELSEWHERE).  

 

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