AlaskaETC Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 One problem is a lot of the big names in the media forecast for potential these days.. even NWS does to some degree. In a year like this it works out more often than not but for the same reason weenies got a big name in 09-10. I like Andrew Freedman and he's a great writer but I thought the title of his piece last week was ridiculous (hopefully it was editors).. "Blizzard possible in NYC"... just because "a shift of 100+ miles" could make a huge difference doesn't mean people need to go there. Some of the most quoted people like Eric Holthaus are pretty much hypesters as well. Last night he was talking 6-10 inches being possible in NYC still which made absolutely no sense. Agreed, hold off on the hype for a bit. Laying out the red carpet for a storm 5-6 days out is a bit imprudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS gives DCA & BWI .31" qpf and Boston .14" ouch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM looks totally plausible if this was 11-12 or 12-13. This year I'm not so sure. rgemsno.JPG If any place is going to be affected by the developing coastal in the MA, it would be coastal DE and SNJ. Those areas could be impacted by frontogenetic forcing/deform zone for a time. NAM is suggesting this as well. Could see a few inches there if everything times right(surface temps more an issue there) and the heavier bands don't end up completely offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Even Cape Cod gets grazed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 One problem is a lot of the big names in the media forecast for potential these days.. even NWS does to some degree. In a year like this it works out more often than not but for the same reason weenies got a big name in 09-10. I like Andrew Freedman and he's a great writer but I thought the title of his piece last week was ridiculous (hopefully it was editors).. "Blizzard possible in NYC"... just because "a shift of 100+ miles" could make a huge difference doesn't mean people need to go there. Some of the most quoted people like Eric Holthaus are pretty much hypesters as well. Last night he was talking 6-10 inches being possible in NYC still which made absolutely no sense.It's pretty bad. It's become a "race to be first" with no regard for NWP limitations at medium leads or even model trends. The euro had a lot to do with it. It nailed some stuff last year at long leads and became a household name. Then all the media euro huggers looked kinda dumb this year. I never thought I'd say this but our subforum is actually more reserved than many "pros in the spotlight". It's weird. I'm sure some would argue against this but I think we showed extensive self weenie control this year and did a good job laying out the risks even while discussing best case scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 One problem is a lot of the big names in the media forecast for potential these days.. even NWS does to some degree. In a year like this it works out more often than not but for the same reason weenies got a big name in 09-10. I like Andrew Freedman and he's a great writer but I thought the title of his piece last week was ridiculous (hopefully it was editors).. "Blizzard possible in NYC"... just because "a shift of 100+ miles" could make a huge difference doesn't mean people need to go there. Some of the most quoted people like Eric Holthaus are pretty much hypesters as well. Last night he was talking 6-10 inches being possible in NYC still which made absolutely no sense. IMO a part of this is due to the expansion of all types of media and resources, and the evolution of reporting and informing standards. Only several decades ago, options for news and weather information were extremely limited....a handful of TV stations, a local and a few national newspapers, local radio stations, etc. Now, there are dozens if not hundreds of unique outlets for news and weather beyond the NWS and 3 local TV networks. Cable TV and the internet have been the primary driving forces. Attention spans are much more diffuse and saturated, thus the competition for ear and eyeball share is fierce. Secondarily, reporting and informing standards have evolved away from facts and more towards opinion and sensationlism. Primarily due to the environment laid out above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Even Cape Cod gets grazed now. I wouldn't spend much time worrying about up here. The GFS/NAM are very unlikely to be right with the way they're handling the eventual phasing of the two systems. The western component will likely continue to ramp up in the models going forward and in turn that'll end up pulling the most eastern solutions NW. Another apparently very poor performance by the local modeling branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I wouldn't spend much time worrying about up here. The GFS/NAM are very unlikely to be right with the way they're handling the eventual phasing of the two systems. The western component will likely continue to ramp up in the models going forward and in turn that'll end up pulling the most eastern solutions NW. Another apparently very poor performance by the local modeling branch. Hopefully you guys get pummeled. We need at least one good hit from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I wouldn't spend much time worrying about up here. The GFS/NAM are very unlikely to be right with the way they're handling the eventual phasing of the two systems. The western component will likely continue to ramp up in the models going forward and in turn that'll end up pulling the most eastern solutions NW. Another apparently very poor performance by the local modeling branch. Sound analysis.. what's your local model of choice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Sound analysis.. what's your local model of choice? The one that shows the most snow would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So, how much for MY BACK YARD? Sorry, couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The trends over past 3 days have all gone the wrong direction for us -- that's clear. Even the UKMET has gone to the east now. On the flip side, we've rarely had a good feel about storm outcomes (i.e., the eventual "reality") prior to 12 hours before an event. But there's still always the possibility of over-performance, despite what the modeling tells us (as with the last system). I'll be happy just to see snow falling from the skies one more time ... and then it's time for me to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Sound analysis.. what's your local model of choice? The ABN, anything but ncep. GGEM doesn't seem unreasonable at this stage and isn't far off the ensemble mean track from last nights Euro, and many of todays models, just deeper. BTW I screwed up, was on my phone thought I was responding in the SE forum. Obviously different story for where you guys are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 On new Euro: Almost 1" QPF at Ocean City MD through 42 hours. Had barely .5 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 euro now .3-.4 for most of us. Broader shield and not such a thin stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 euro now .3-.4 for most of us. Broader shield and not such a thin stripe. Cold enough for some fun? Like half snow and half rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Cold enough for some fun? Like half snow and half rain? It would be all snow from the sky. Hard to say what sticks. Mid 30's for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It would be all snow from the sky. Hard to say what sticks. Mid 30's for highs. Yay 2" on the grass Oh well... snowTV for all to end the winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Baro, at 30.25 and that is not a suppressive reading, in fact it's about perfect for 18-24 hours in advance, plus it's peaked. This has been some of the problem with pre event ideas this winter that precip will be south or east-suppressed. The air has been extremely cold but the baros. have not been 30.4/30.5 and there has been some computer/model misreading of that. Looks like total cloud cover will not occur beforre midnight so going to be able to get cold again. Get this going by 8am tomorrow, get some evaporational out of it and then steady enough rates to mute the radiant and tomorrow would set some low max records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro is pretty wet tho nothing by 12z and mid-30s with max precip.. not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro is pretty wet tho nothing by 12z and mid-30s with max precip.. not sure. It was a notable shift in qpf amounts and coverage. Hard to complain because the timing sucks. Maybe euro is catching on to better interacting with the deepening coast and ul energy swinging through. Or maybe I'm just a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It was a notable shift in qpf amounts and coverage. Hard to complain because the timing sucks. Maybe euro is catching on to better interacting with the deepening coast and ul energy swinging through. Or maybe I'm just a weenie. The midday panel seems a little wonky. I guess it could happen. Still no major reason to go much above 1" in grass as risk in the city at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will there be advisories posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The midday panel seems a little wonky. I guess it could happen. Still no major reason to go much above 1" in grass as risk in the city at least. Seems unlikely anybody (except maybe delmarva) tops 2". And even if they did they better measure quick. Streets will get nothing and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I wouldn't spend much time worrying about up here. The GFS/NAM are very unlikely to be right with the way they're handling the eventual phasing of the two systems. The western component will likely continue to ramp up in the models going forward and in turn that'll end up pulling the most eastern solutions NW. Another apparently very poor performance by the local modeling branch. This a great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will there be advisories posted? More than likely as the chance for snow during morning or afternoon commutes is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I for one think we may accumulate better than some believe. It's 230pm and I'm sitting at 34f under a bright late march sun. That has to count for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Low max records for 3/25 DCA-33(1940) compares to a 38/39 for current readings BWI-34(1888) who the he*l knows what it compares to, that's 20 years BEFORE cars were invented. This ancient stuff is a joke. IAD-38(1974) and likely in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I for one think we may accumulate better than some believe. It's 230pm and I'm sitting at 34f under a bright late march sun. That has to count for something. Today's a better air mass than tomorrow. If we get heavy snow at like 33-34 it'll probably stick OK while it's ripping. Roads have almost no shot other than some quick slush maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will there be advisories posted? Will there be advisories posted? Well, this is from LWX morning discussion, not that it can't change .... SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES WITH SLUSH ON ROADWAYS DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW DUE TO THE BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SLY FLOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING (AND SOME OF THE EVENING) COMMUTE WHICH ONLY REQUIRES LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR ONE INCH IN THE OPM COMMUTING AREA (TWO INCHES ELSEWHERE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.