Season Finale :(

[famartin]

I haven't read the LWX discussion, but Mt. Holly leaned hard on the Euro, so maybe they did too.

[mdsnowlover]

Something must of changed in the models overnight.  The folks at NOAA have change the point and click to this overnight:

 

Tuesday Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 38. East wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

Tuesday Night Snow likely before 2am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 27. East wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible

that forecast was on the combined fios/weather channel  last night after 6 pm. Havent checked this  morning yet!!

[CAPE]

Very cool product for those who have not seen this:  http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

 

Mount Holly has relied on this quite a bit this winter to pinpoint frontogenesis and snow banding and it has worked very well. Here is a look at tomorrow, 6z + 42 hours:

 

[Herb@MAWS]

HPC still is hedging as of early Monday morning, so we may continue to grasp at straws ... and dream the impossible dream ....

 

AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, A  
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT  
OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM  
SPREADS INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AND IN THE HOURS THAT FOLLOW  
WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON ITS TRACK - THE DETAILS OF WHICH ARE  
STILL UNCLEAR GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

[mdsnowlover]

HPC still is hedging as of early Monday morning, so we may continue to grasp at straws ... and dream the impossible dream ....

 

AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, A  

POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT  

OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM  

SPREADS INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AND IN THE HOURS THAT FOLLOW  

WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON ITS TRACK - THE DETAILS OF WHICH ARE  

STILL UNCLEAR GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

amazing that at this juncture they dont know the track!!

[Ji]

oh to be in Halifax again.

 

 

8P MAR23
SFC 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SUN 8P 23-MAR 0.2 -10.6 1008 75 15 530 524
MON 2A 24-MAR -7.8 -14.1 1011 73 32 0.00 528 519
MON 8A 24-MAR -11.7 -16.9 1012 78 12 0.00 519 510
MON 2P 24-MAR -8.9 -18.8 1010 70 17 0.00 514 506
MON 8P 24-MAR -8.5 -20.7 1012 76 21 0.00 514 505
TUE 2A 25-MAR -9.5 -19.6 1016 77 23 0.00 518 506
TUE 8A 25-MAR -9.0 -17.1 1020 76 22 0.00 522 507
TUE 2P 25-MAR -5.5 -17.4 1021 64 23 0.00 526 509
TUE 8P 25-MAR -4.8 -16.4 1022 75 30 0.00 530 513
WED 2A 26-MAR -5.0 -12.7 1020 80 59 0.00 536 520
WED 8A 26-MAR -5.4 -4.3 1006 94 94 0.16 534 529
WED 2P 26-MAR -1.7 -1.9 975 96 99 1.51 521 541
WED 8P 26-MAR -2.5 -5.4 963 95 94 0.52 501 531
THU 2A 27-MAR -7.5 -17.6 986 84 77 0.14 509 519
THU 8A 27-MAR -5.3 -16.4 1003 78 48 0.01 516 514 

[MN Transplant]

oh to be in Halifax again.

 

 

8P MAR23

SFC 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

SUN 8P 23-MAR 0.2 -10.6 1008 75 15 530 524

MON 2A 24-MAR -7.8 -14.1 1011 73 32 0.00 528 519

MON 8A 24-MAR -11.7 -16.9 1012 78 12 0.00 519 510

MON 2P 24-MAR -8.9 -18.8 1010 70 17 0.00 514 506

MON 8P 24-MAR -8.5 -20.7 1012 76 21 0.00 514 505

TUE 2A 25-MAR -9.5 -19.6 1016 77 23 0.00 518 506

TUE 8A 25-MAR -9.0 -17.1 1020 76 22 0.00 522 507

TUE 2P 25-MAR -5.5 -17.4 1021 64 23 0.00 526 509

TUE 8P 25-MAR -4.8 -16.4 1022 75 30 0.00 530 513

WED 2A 26-MAR -5.0 -12.7 1020 80 59 0.00 536 520

WED 8A 26-MAR -5.4 -4.3 1006 94 94 0.16 534 529

WED 2P 26-MAR -1.7 -1.9 975 96 99 1.51 521 541

WED 8P 26-MAR -2.5 -5.4 963 95 94 0.52 501 531

THU 2A 27-MAR -7.5 -17.6 986 84 77 0.14 509 519

THU 8A 27-MAR -5.3 -16.4 1003 78 48 0.01 516 514 

 

[usedtobe]

amazing that at this juncture they dont know the track!!

I'm guessing they are referring to places farther north than us.  The models differe significantly on the impact over easern new england.  None have the low close enough to us to give us more than a slushy inch or so. 

[mitchnick]

NAMs sim/rad at 27 hrs has a nice area of precip moving in from the SW

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=027ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_027_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140324+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[mitchnick]

NAMs sim/rad at 27 hrs has a nice area of precip moving in from the SW

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=027ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_027_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140324+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

NAM goes wacky after 27 hrs....maybe wacky good, but NAM wacky nonetheless

[mitchnick]

based on precip totals, looks like the coastal sux the life out of the precip over the MA

[usedtobe]

NAM goes wacky after 27 hrs....maybe wacky good, but NAM wacky nonetheless

Trouble with the NAM is it doesn't start the precip until after 8AM. 

[mitchnick]

Trouble with the NAM is it doesn't start the precip until after 8AM. 

yeah, I don't doubt we see snow, just non-accumulating snow; otoh, Euro gives BWI twice the qpf that's on the NAM today, which would likely accumulate in areas shaded from the sun

but that beats stifling heat and humidity, which is guaranteed in a few months

[Bob Chill]

Trouble with the NAM is it doesn't start the precip until after 8AM.

I wasn't a fan of that. For any chance of something worth measuring we need a near dawn start or crazy rates. The former is much preferred because the latter would only be over a small area if it happens at all.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

yeah, I don't doubt we see snow, just non-accumulating snow; otoh, Euro gives BWI twice the qpf that's on the NAM today, which would likely accumulate in areas shaded from the sun

but that beats stifling heat and humidity, which is guaranteed in a few months

Long term 6Z GFS says maybe next week

[mitchnick]

Long term 6Z GFS says maybe next week

I stopped looking past tomorrow...I guess I'm ready already

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

I stopped looking past tomorrow...I guess I'm ready already

Lol..Im kinda teasing but >+10 850s could mean 80 and dews in the 50s under April Sun? Anyway, If you want to see some snow fall on Tuesday, cool you probably will...but Im in the camp of I dont care because I dont think we'll see accumulation...Have to be ripping this time of year to get solid accum or at least be well into the 20s...Neither look all that likely to me.

[Deck Pic]

I've been looking at past storms and I think we can do ok until 10-11 am...after that seems dicy...though on 3/24/90 we accumulated midday....it was mod/hvy snow....

[Deck Pic]

hi-res radar has another line come through tomorrow night, that would conceivably drop an inch or so

[attml]

I am not convinced this storm is dead yet - close but not there yet!

[Deck Pic]

I am not convinced this storm is dead yet - close but not there yet!

 

that's good since nobody pronounced it dead and we pretty much sit in the same place as we have the last 48 hours

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

I am not convinced this storm is dead yet - close but not there yet!

If you're referring to the actual coastal its dead...if you want to hang your hat on getting 1-3 from the Norlun/ULL then thats fine, but Im honestly not.

[Ian]

GFS looks decent as far as decent goes. Still a struggle but eh.  

 

This is one of the most hyped storms that very few model runs ever showed more than a glancing blow from.  

[Deck Pic]

GFS looks decent as far as decent goes. Still a struggle but eh.  

 

This is one of the most hyped storms that very few model runs ever showed more than a glancing blow from.  

 

we were focused on the wrong feature for too long..the consolation prize isnt bad...as you said, GFS is pretty wet...

[mitchnick]

GFS gives DCA & BWI .31" qpf and Boston .14"     ouch

[paulythegun]

GFS looks decent as far as decent goes. Still a struggle but eh.  

 

This is one of the most hyped storms that very few model runs ever showed more than a glancing blow from.  

Yep. The psychology of these things is interesting. All it takes is one good model run from a decent model and it's "in play" (at least in my head).  There was really only one euro run last week - I think it was 12z Thursday - that gave us a good shot at precip from the coastal. Other than that, the low position has been way too far out to sea and we've been hoping for scraps from the ULL. 

[Bob Chill]

RGEM looks totally plausible if this was 11-12 or 12-13. This year I'm not so sure. 

 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GFS gives DCA & BWI .31" qpf and Boston .14" ouch

Good trends though for your region and extreme se New England. Non euro guidance was really out to lunch with the evolution of this system. We should see a continued trend towards a western focus which will also result in the nw edge of precip up here pivoting further north as the low deepens.

Nice hit down there and for the cape. Not a bad way to end it.

[winterymix]

we were focused on the wrong feature for too long..the consolation prize isnt bad...as you said, GFS is pretty wet...

The NAM looks slower, dryer and warm while the GFS is quicker and slightly moister and warm.

 

It would be interesting if the GFS is correct and rates are quick enough in the late afternoon for

one or two inches of stickage.    

[Ian]

Yep. The psychology of these things is interesting. All it takes is one good model run from a decent model and it's "in play" (at least in my head).  There was really only one euro run last week - I think it was 12z Thursday - that gave us a good shot at precip from the coastal. Other than that, the low position has been way too far out to sea and we've been hoping for scraps from the ULL. 

One problem is a lot of the big names in the media forecast for potential these days.. even NWS does to some degree.  In a year like this it works out more often than not but for the same reason weenies got a big name in 09-10.  I like Andrew Freedman and he's a great writer but I thought the title of his piece last week was ridiculous (hopefully it was editors).. "Blizzard possible in NYC"... just because "a shift of 100+ miles" could make a huge difference doesn't mean people need to go there.  Some of the most quoted people like Eric Holthaus are pretty much hypesters as well. Last night he was talking 6-10 inches being possible in NYC still which made absolutely no sense.