Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Season Finale :(


Ji

Recommended Posts

Timing isn't great for this one..hopefully we can get mod/hvy snow and stay below 35..I'm sure the usual spots will be ok

the mid levels are real cold so if it can come in an hour or two early to cool the atmosphere before sunrise, that's our best shot

even though the Euro paints more qpf over me, I actually think DCA may do better with surface temps for just that reason

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

the mid levels are real cold so if it can come in an hour or two early to cool the atmosphere before sunrise, that's our best shot

even though the Euro paints more qpf over me, I actually think DCA may do better with surface temps for just that reason

 

I'm not sure I am down with 3/25 snow for the cities during the day, unless it is heavy....33-34 would work on grass and decks if it is heavy enough

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, I think there's a difference between weather lovers and weather weenies.  The weather lovers enjoy weather but are realistic.  The weenies will grasp at any and all straws.

if someone is a regular on this Board, they're a weenie

I don't deny I'm a weenie....I'm sure not here to make money or for my health!

use of the term to 98% of the people here is generally pots calling kettles black and not in a positive way

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My excitement for this storm on a scale of 1 to 10 is a 2. I might even close the blinds in our ops center. if it all falls during the day with temps above freezing its wasted qpf in my opinion. Nothing worse than watching snow fall and melt on contact. Storm will be very impressive off NE but at that latitude it will be giving us dry and cold NW flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

aww Ian, you deleted the moron post

it was OK, I had a response lol

look, we're all weenies here except for a few mets and I believe that anyone who uses it is a derogatory way is hypocritical

Naa you're right. Snow is snow. It doesn't really matter how it happens as long as it's frozen and white.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah, it'll be tough, but wth, I can't help but believe it's our last shot of the year

 

I mean, it's been done...3/24/90 it happened and it stuck to the grass...it was nice and moderate/hvy...3/30/64 looks like is was early AM...4/7/72 was evening...I guess you take what you can on the borders and hope for the best during the day

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean, it's been done...3/24/90 it happened and it stuck to the grass...it was nice and moderate/hvy...3/30/64 looks like is was early AM...4/7/72 was evening...I guess you take what you can on the borders and hope for the best during the day

What is the highest air temp you have seen stick age on grass this late in season. Just curious. I remember one event last season we did get it to stick at 33-35 but rates were pretty high.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is the highest air temp you have seen stick age on grass this late in season. Just curious. I remember one event last season we did get it to stick at 33-35 but rates were pretty high.

 

I've seen grass stickage at 35 during the day for sure in late February....not sure about this late....but even then, it kind of melted when snow was too light...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is the highest air temp you have seen stick age on grass this late in season. Just curious. I remember one event last season we did get it to stick at 33-35 but rates were pretty high.

Ground temp plays a pretty big role there. Don't have a specific example but in this case it would have to fall pretty hard at 33-35 because the snow will be sandwiched between above freezing air and above freezing ground.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ground temp plays a pretty big role there. Don't have a specific example but in this case it would have to fall pretty hard at 33-35 because the snow will be sandwiched between above freezing air and above freezing ground.

 

The NAM is pretty juicy, but it is the NAM at 48-66 hours....Mitchnick is right...the BL is just fine...I am just starting to follow this threat so don't have much background...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM is pretty juicy, but it is the NAM at 48-66 hours....Mitchnick is right...the BL is just fine...I am just starting to follow this threat so don't have much background...

The ul interaction with the vort pass has been showing up for about 3 days but it's been mostly light stuff. I've been interested in it but knowing the globals are a bit broad brushed with such a small feature it hasn't really been worth paying too much attention. Now that we're getting close it will be fun to watch the short range stuff start to resolve it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM is pretty juicy, but it is the NAM at 48-66 hours....Mitchnick is right...the BL is just fine...I am just starting to follow this threat so don't have much background...

It's starting to catch on but still has that norlun/inverted trough late which none of the globals have shown. maybe its superior resolution is to blame.. but it's still handling the main low differently which makes it suspect. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's starting to catch on but still has that norlun/inverted trough late which none of the globals have shown. maybe its superior resolution is to blame.. but it's still handling the main low differently which makes it suspect. 

 

It seems like night snow would stick easily with the profile,...what about day?...I can't remember day time stickage more than a cartopper 0.1" this late since 1990, but that may be because we just havent had the setup...I know IAD got middle of the day 1" on April 12, 1973, lol...33 and moderate snow...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM has been showing a NW to SE band of heavy accumulated precip that has been jumping around. 

 

In the 00z run it was near the MD / VA border

In the 06z run it was up near central NJ

In the 12z run it was over Baltimore

In the 18z run it was over the mouth of the Chesapeake

 

We've seen something similar with the NAM in the last two storms.  It will be interesting to see if this feature persists, and if so where it ends up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sterling has the right idea

 

IFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SPREADING
THROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE SNOW. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY OR IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM
ENOUGH /ESPECIALLY I-95 EAST/ FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN IN
ALL SNOW...IMPACT MAY BE MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT IF THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN
ANGLE UNLESS SNOW WERE TO FALL HEAVILY. IF SNOW ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THEN THESE
TIMES MAY WIND UP HAVING THE MOST IMPACT WITHOUT THE INHIBITING
INFLUENCE OF SOME SOLAR RADIATION MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT WHICH WILL NEED TO
BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.

PRECIPITATION LIKELY CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...THEN
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PULLING FURTHER AWAY IT ENDS EXCEPT OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHLANDS. FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE...HAVE PUT
LEAST EMPHASIS ON THE NAM AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF/SREFS COMPROMISE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM has been showing a NW to SE band of heavy accumulated precip that has been jumping around. 

 

In the 00z run it was near the MD / VA border

In the 06z run it was up near central NJ

In the 12z run it was over Baltimore

In the 18z run it was over the mouth of the Chesapeake

 

We've seen something similar with the NAM in the last two storms.  It will be interesting to see if this feature persists, and if so where it ends up.

The norlun trough angle on the NAM doesn't really have any support. I'd be skeptical it's real. We almost never see that down here for one.. more common PHL and northeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It seems like night snow would stick easily with the profile,...what about day?...I can't remember day time stickage more than a cartopper 0.1" this late since 1990, but that may be because we just havent had the setup...I know IAD got middle of the day 1" on April 12, 1973, lol...33 and moderate snow...

 

The feature producing the snow is somewhat similar to what happened Feb 25. I guess that was pretty early and a month of sun angle makes a difference.  If it comes down heavy could certainly get some grass accum but even in that one as soon as it lightened up it started to disappear.  Anything below heavy snow during the day is going to have a heck of a problem here at least. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The feature producing the snow is somewhat similar to what happened Feb 25. I guess that was pretty early and a month of sun angle makes a difference.  If it comes down heavy could certainly get some grass accum but even in that one as soon as it lightened up it started to disappear.  Anything below heavy snow during the day is going to have a heck of a problem here at elsleast. 

Im in ....its almost april. What else choice do i have

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...