mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Timing isn't great for this one..hopefully we can get mod/hvy snow and stay below 35..I'm sure the usual spots will be ok the mid levels are real cold so if it can come in an hour or two early to cool the atmosphere before sunrise, that's our best shot even though the Euro paints more qpf over me, I actually think DCA may do better with surface temps for just that reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah...can we get off the pedestal here? Science is supposed to be about education and the pursuit of knowledge. "My **** don't stink" attitudes don't belong here. This isn't a fashion forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah...can we get off the pedestal here? Science is supposed to be about education and the pursuit of knowledge. "My **** don't stink" attitudes don't belong here. This isn't a fashion forum... Thanks for being the voice of reason, PraetorianGuard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 ers-wxman-You have been here a grand total of one month. We've done Ok for years without insturctions about how you believe a map shoud be read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 the mid levels are real cold so if it can come in an hour or two early to cool the atmosphere before sunrise, that's our best shot even though the Euro paints more qpf over me, I actually think DCA may do better with surface temps for just that reason I'm not sure I am down with 3/25 snow for the cities during the day, unless it is heavy....33-34 would work on grass and decks if it is heavy enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No, I think there's a difference between weather lovers and weather weenies. The weather lovers enjoy weather but are realistic. The weenies will grasp at any and all straws. if someone is a regular on this Board, they're a weenie I don't deny I'm a weenie....I'm sure not here to make money or for my health! use of the term to 98% of the people here is generally pots calling kettles black and not in a positive way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No, I think there's a difference between weather lovers and weather weenies. The weather lovers enjoy weather but are realistic. The weenies will grasp at any and all straws. Elko, NV forum slow right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My excitement for this storm on a scale of 1 to 10 is a 2. I might even close the blinds in our ops center. if it all falls during the day with temps above freezing its wasted qpf in my opinion. Nothing worse than watching snow fall and melt on contact. Storm will be very impressive off NE but at that latitude it will be giving us dry and cold NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm not sure I am down with 3/25 snow for the cities during the day, unless it is heavy....33-34 would work on grass and decks if it is heavy enough yeah, it'll be tough, but wth, I can't help but believe it's our last shot of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Elko, NV forum slow right now? Nevada has a forum? I think I may take my talents there. Reno has snow until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 ers-wxman-You have been here a grand total of one month. We've done Ok for years without insturctions about how you believe a map shoud be read. Pardon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 aww Ian, you deleted the moron post it was OK, I had a response lol look, we're all weenies here except for a few mets and I believe that anyone who uses it is a derogatory way is hypocritical Naa you're right. Snow is snow. It doesn't really matter how it happens as long as it's frozen and white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Pardon what? One monther-try and fit in rather than trying to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yeah, it'll be tough, but wth, I can't help but believe it's our last shot of the year I mean, it's been done...3/24/90 it happened and it stuck to the grass...it was nice and moderate/hvy...3/30/64 looks like is was early AM...4/7/72 was evening...I guess you take what you can on the borders and hope for the best during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Pardon what?One monther-try and fit in rather than trying to take over. That's a good one. Best one I've read on the forums so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I mean, it's been done...3/24/90 it happened and it stuck to the grass...it was nice and moderate/hvy...3/30/64 looks like is was early AM...4/7/72 was evening...I guess you take what you can on the borders and hope for the best during the day What is the highest air temp you have seen stick age on grass this late in season. Just curious. I remember one event last season we did get it to stick at 33-35 but rates were pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What is the highest air temp you have seen stick age on grass this late in season. Just curious. I remember one event last season we did get it to stick at 33-35 but rates were pretty high. I've seen grass stickage at 35 during the day for sure in late February....not sure about this late....but even then, it kind of melted when snow was too light... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What is the highest air temp you have seen stick age on grass this late in season. Just curious. I remember one event last season we did get it to stick at 33-35 but rates were pretty high. Ground temp plays a pretty big role there. Don't have a specific example but in this case it would have to fall pretty hard at 33-35 because the snow will be sandwiched between above freezing air and above freezing ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Pardon what? One monther-try and fit in rather than trying to take over. The irony is that on this particular topic this "one-monther" has much more context than you do; you missed the backstory to the map discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ground temp plays a pretty big role there. Don't have a specific example but in this case it would have to fall pretty hard at 33-35 because the snow will be sandwiched between above freezing air and above freezing ground. The NAM is pretty juicy, but it is the NAM at 48-66 hours....Mitchnick is right...the BL is just fine...I am just starting to follow this threat so don't have much background... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The NAM is pretty juicy, but it is the NAM at 48-66 hours....Mitchnick is right...the BL is just fine...I am just starting to follow this threat so don't have much background... The ul interaction with the vort pass has been showing up for about 3 days but it's been mostly light stuff. I've been interested in it but knowing the globals are a bit broad brushed with such a small feature it hasn't really been worth paying too much attention. Now that we're getting close it will be fun to watch the short range stuff start to resolve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The NAM is pretty juicy, but it is the NAM at 48-66 hours....Mitchnick is right...the BL is just fine...I am just starting to follow this threat so don't have much background... It's starting to catch on but still has that norlun/inverted trough late which none of the globals have shown. maybe its superior resolution is to blame.. but it's still handling the main low differently which makes it suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Naa you're right. Snow is snow. It doesn't really matter how it happens as long as it's frozen and white. All my snow falls from the sky above my head. I give not a partial crap if it's from a front, a trough, a wave, a coastal bomb, or whatevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That's a good one. Best one I've read on the forums so far. Don't worry about tj...he's been around for decades and has not yet once made sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's starting to catch on but still has that norlun/inverted trough late which none of the globals have shown. maybe its superior resolution is to blame.. but it's still handling the main low differently which makes it suspect. It seems like night snow would stick easily with the profile,...what about day?...I can't remember day time stickage more than a cartopper 0.1" this late since 1990, but that may be because we just havent had the setup...I know IAD got middle of the day 1" on April 12, 1973, lol...33 and moderate snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The NAM has been showing a NW to SE band of heavy accumulated precip that has been jumping around. In the 00z run it was near the MD / VA border In the 06z run it was up near central NJ In the 12z run it was over Baltimore In the 18z run it was over the mouth of the Chesapeake We've seen something similar with the NAM in the last two storms. It will be interesting to see if this feature persists, and if so where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sterling has the right idea IFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOPLATE MONDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SPREADINGTHROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE SNOW. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF PRECIPITATIONWILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY OR IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARMENOUGH /ESPECIALLY I-95 EAST/ FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN INALL SNOW...IMPACT MAY BE MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT IF THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALLS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUNANGLE UNLESS SNOW WERE TO FALL HEAVILY. IF SNOW ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGHTUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THEN THESETIMES MAY WIND UP HAVING THE MOST IMPACT WITHOUT THE INHIBITINGINFLUENCE OF SOME SOLAR RADIATION MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT WHICH WILL NEED TOBE RESOLVED WITH TIME.PRECIPITATION LIKELY CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...THENWITH THE DEEPENING LOW PULLING FURTHER AWAY IT ENDS EXCEPT OVER THEWESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHLANDS. FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE...HAVE PUTLEAST EMPHASIS ON THE NAM AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF/SREFS COMPROMISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The NAM has been showing a NW to SE band of heavy accumulated precip that has been jumping around. In the 00z run it was near the MD / VA border In the 06z run it was up near central NJ In the 12z run it was over Baltimore In the 18z run it was over the mouth of the Chesapeake We've seen something similar with the NAM in the last two storms. It will be interesting to see if this feature persists, and if so where it ends up. The norlun trough angle on the NAM doesn't really have any support. I'd be skeptical it's real. We almost never see that down here for one.. more common PHL and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It seems like night snow would stick easily with the profile,...what about day?...I can't remember day time stickage more than a cartopper 0.1" this late since 1990, but that may be because we just havent had the setup...I know IAD got middle of the day 1" on April 12, 1973, lol...33 and moderate snow... The feature producing the snow is somewhat similar to what happened Feb 25. I guess that was pretty early and a month of sun angle makes a difference. If it comes down heavy could certainly get some grass accum but even in that one as soon as it lightened up it started to disappear. Anything below heavy snow during the day is going to have a heck of a problem here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 The feature producing the snow is somewhat similar to what happened Feb 25. I guess that was pretty early and a month of sun angle makes a difference. If it comes down heavy could certainly get some grass accum but even in that one as soon as it lightened up it started to disappear. Anything below heavy snow during the day is going to have a heck of a problem here at elsleast. Im in ....its almost april. What else choice do i have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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