snowfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My point and click was updated to 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 More like an Equitorial Reach. his web page has been down for almost 2days, anyone else experience this or have I been banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Was gonna be posted sooner or later..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Was gonna be posted sooner or later..... image.jpg Is that a forecaster-made grid, or something based on models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Was gonna be posted sooner or later..... image.jpg good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 good luck with that For the millionth time... What you have here is the MAXIMUM snow potential. It is not a snow forecast but a very worst case scenario predominantly for risk management with emergency management partners. It does take into account the wetter and colder solutions to provide a "what is the worst that could possibly happen" with this storm. Our "Most Likely" scenario is the official forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 EM's need this information for planning and resources Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 For the millionth time... What you have here is the MAXIMUM snow potential. It is not a snow forecast but a very worst case scenario predominantly for risk management with emergency management partners. It does take into account the wetter and colder solutions to provide a "what is the worst that could possibly happen" with this storm. Our "Most Likely" scenario is the official forecast. yeah, I'm still not sure what all the fuss is. I posted it because it's showing what ya'll think is the max potential for this event. The maps are very easy to understand, in my opinion. Good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 For the millionth time... What you have here is the MAXIMUM snow potential. It is not a snow forecast but a very worst case scenario predominantly for risk management with emergency management partners. It does take into account the wetter and colder solutions to provide a "what is the worst that could possibly happen" with this storm. Our "Most Likely" scenario is the official forecast. EM's need this information for planning and resources Lol seems to be a problem with the general public grabbing these and demonstrating their inability to read and interpret a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yeah, I'm still not sure what all the fuss is. I posted it because it's showing what ya'll think is the max potential for this event. The maps are very easy to understand, in my opinion. Good work. What you posted is fine I'm still taken aback that people still dont understand these products after a week of intense debate back and forth and highlighting their usage. There are numerous posts in the NWS product debate section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 For the millionth time... What you have here is the MAXIMUM snow potential. It is not a snow forecast but a very worst case scenario predominantly for risk management with emergency management partners. It does take into account the wetter and colder solutions to provide a "what is the worst that could possibly happen" with this storm. Our "Most Likely" scenario is the official forecast. And here is THAT map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Is that a forecaster-made grid, or something based on models? I think its based on the SREF and sometimes tweaked by a forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think its based on the SREF and sometimes tweaked by a forecaster. I was figuring the SREF had a lot to do with that (given what its putting out right now), but just wanted to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Why is the minimum and maximum storm total forecast maps updated, but the "Most Likely" still says NONE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Why is the minimum and maximum storm total forecast maps updated, but the "Most Likely" still says NONE? That map is only through 6pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Just saw the NAM -- over 1 inch of qpf IMBY! That is definitely going to happen. Strangely enough, this is shaping up to be one of the snowiest scenarios that could realistically happen for our region. No model ever showed a super-amped coastal low coming far enough west to hit us. The runs that gave us the most snow have been the ones with the northern clipper blowing up when it hits the mid-Atlantic and interacts the coastal storm. Ironically, I think having a slightly weaker, farther SE coastal low might actually help this scenario. The most any global has ever given DC out of this scenario is about 0.6" qpf, so I think that's a reasonable upper limit. We'll probably get a lot less, and who knows if or how it will accumulate. But as others have said, it's a complicated situation and it will be interesting to see how the high-res models handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 And here is THAT map lol StormTotalSnowRange (1).png That's only valid for today, fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That's only valid for today, fyi. I know. Just wondering why that map was not updated but the MIN and MAX were. Just having a bit of fun with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Mid-Atlantic special I guess it's time to play the "over-performer" card. What the hay, it worked out last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't want to come off strong or harsh and stir up another heated debate like last weekend but these products are mostly meant for our emergency management officials, department of transportation heads and other decision makers. We are simply communicating a range of possible scenarios with Minimum telling you to prepare for xx amount of snow, Maximim saying to prepare for the possibility the snow could be as high as xx amount and Most Likely which is our official forecast and highest confidence. Is it perfect...no but the goal posts set the limits on high and low and endpoint is right down the middle. As stated by wxman1 the inherited guidance or 10/90 products will include for ENS members next winter which will hopefully lessen the high SREF bias within the fields. But yes guidance comes in then is tweaked by the forecaster then goes to the web Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Why is the minimum and maximum storm total forecast maps updated, but the "Most Likely" still says NONE? Handles one event at a time on the most likely while the min/max handle out to 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 700mb RH at 48 hrs looks decent on Euro for small event http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Handles one event at a time on the most likely while the min/max handle out to 72 hours Gotcha. Just looks odd when you go to that page on the site and you see those 3 maps side by side- MIN, MOST LIKELY, MAX, and the middle one says None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Gotcha. Just looks odd when you go to that page on the site and you see those 3 maps side by side- MIN, MOST LIKELY, MAX, and the middle one says None. I see your point. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 New maps will come out around 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro has the double low. Narrow band of 0.3" running along 95 with temps in the low 30s on Tuesday afternoon. Another 0.1-0.15 on the next panel with temps near 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I see your point. Thanks One question...Why don't all NWSFO use this product? Is it just LWX? For example on Mount Holly's site they only have the Total snow forecast map, and not the experimental probabilities. Thanks and if this has been answered before, my apologies. I didnt get involved in the debate in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro has the double low. Narrow band of 0.3" running along 95 with temps in the low 30s on Tuesday afternoon. Another 0.1-0.15 on the next panel with temps near 30. very narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro has the double low. Narrow band of 0.3" running along 95 with temps in the low 30s on Tuesday afternoon. Another 0.1-0.15 on the next panel with temps near 30. .26" for DCA and .29" for BWI for the 6 hours ending 18Z my site hasn't updated yet for 6 hrs ending 0Z just updated, here's BWI....sorry folks, only the NAM has been close to these numbers on qpf TUE 12Z 25-MAR 0.7 -8.7 1016 76 99 0.02 534 521 TUE 18Z 25-MAR 0.7 -7.3 1012 90 100 0.29 532 522 WED 00Z 26-MAR -0.1 -7.8 83 75 0.16 529 520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 .26" for DCA and .29" for BWI for the 6 hours ending 18Z my site hasn't updated yet for 6 hrs ending 0Z just updated, here's BWI....sorry folks, only the NAM has been close to these numbers on qpf TUE 12Z 25-MAR 0.7 -8.7 1016 76 99 0.02 534 521 TUE 18Z 25-MAR 0.7 -7.3 1012 90 100 0.29 532 522 WED 00Z 26-MAR -0.1 -7.8 83 75 0.16 529 520 IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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