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Season Finale :(


Ji

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good luck with that

For the millionth time... What you have here is the MAXIMUM snow potential. It is not a snow forecast but a very worst case scenario predominantly for risk management with emergency management partners. It does take into account the wetter and colder solutions to provide a "what is the worst that could possibly happen" with this storm. Our "Most Likely" scenario is the official forecast.

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For the millionth time... What you have here is the MAXIMUM snow potential. It is not a snow forecast but a very worst case scenario predominantly for risk management with emergency management partners. It does take into account the wetter and colder solutions to provide a "what is the worst that could possibly happen" with this storm. Our "Most Likely" scenario is the official forecast.

yeah, I'm still not sure what all the fuss is. I posted it because it's showing what ya'll think is the max potential for this event. The maps are very easy to understand, in my opinion. Good work.
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For the millionth time... What you have here is the MAXIMUM snow potential. It is not a snow forecast but a very worst case scenario predominantly for risk management with emergency management partners. It does take into account the wetter and colder solutions to provide a "what is the worst that could possibly happen" with this storm. Our "Most Likely" scenario is the official forecast.

 

EM's need this information for planning and resources

Lol seems to be a problem with the general public grabbing these and demonstrating their inability to read and interpret a map.

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yeah, I'm still not sure what all the fuss is. I posted it because it's showing what ya'll think is the max potential for this event. The maps are very easy to understand, in my opinion. Good work.

What you posted is fine I'm still taken aback that people still dont understand these products after a week of intense debate back and forth and highlighting their usage. There are numerous posts in the NWS product debate section.

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For the millionth time... What you have here is the MAXIMUM snow potential. It is not a snow forecast but a very worst case scenario predominantly for risk management with emergency management partners. It does take into account the wetter and colder solutions to provide a "what is the worst that could possibly happen" with this storm. Our "Most Likely" scenario is the official forecast.

 

And here is THAT map lol

 

 

post-1005-0-18576900-1395597097_thumb.pn

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Just saw the NAM -- over 1 inch of qpf IMBY!  That is definitely going to happen.

 

Strangely enough, this is shaping up to be one of the snowiest scenarios that could realistically happen for our region.  No model ever showed a super-amped coastal low coming far enough west to hit us.  The runs that gave us the most snow have been the ones with the northern clipper blowing up when it hits the mid-Atlantic and interacts the coastal storm.  Ironically, I think having a slightly weaker, farther SE coastal low might actually help this scenario. 

 

The most any global has ever given DC out of this scenario is about 0.6" qpf, so I think that's a reasonable upper limit.  We'll probably get a lot less, and who knows if or how it will accumulate.  But as others have said, it's a complicated situation and it will be interesting to see how the high-res models handle it.

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I don't want to come off strong or harsh and stir up another heated debate like last weekend but these products are mostly meant for our emergency management officials, department of transportation heads and other decision makers. We are simply communicating a range of possible scenarios with Minimum telling you to prepare for xx amount of snow, Maximim saying to prepare for the possibility the snow could be as high as xx amount and Most Likely which is our official forecast and highest confidence.

Is it perfect...no but the goal posts set the limits on high and low and endpoint is right down the middle. As stated by wxman1 the inherited guidance or 10/90 products will include for ENS members next winter which will hopefully lessen the high SREF bias within the fields. But yes guidance comes in then is tweaked by the forecaster then goes to the web

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I see your point. Thanks

One question...Why don't all NWSFO use this product? Is it just LWX? For example on Mount Holly's site they only have the Total snow forecast map, and not the experimental probabilities. Thanks and if this has been answered before, my apologies. I didnt get involved in the debate in the other thread.

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Euro has the double low. Narrow band of 0.3" running along 95 with temps in the low 30s on Tuesday afternoon. Another 0.1-0.15 on the next panel with temps near 30.

.26" for DCA and .29" for BWI for the 6 hours ending 18Z

my site hasn't updated yet for 6 hrs ending 0Z

just updated, here's BWI....sorry folks, only the NAM has been close to these numbers on qpf

TUE 12Z 25-MAR   0.7    -8.7    1016      76      99    0.02     534     521    TUE 18Z 25-MAR   0.7    -7.3    1012      90     100    0.29     532     522    WED 00Z 26-MAR  -0.1    -7.8              83      75    0.16     529     520    
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.26" for DCA and .29" for BWI for the 6 hours ending 18Z

my site hasn't updated yet for 6 hrs ending 0Z

just updated, here's BWI....sorry folks, only the NAM has been close to these numbers on qpf

TUE 12Z 25-MAR   0.7    -8.7    1016      76      99    0.02     534     521    TUE 18Z 25-MAR   0.7    -7.3    1012      90     100    0.29     532     522    WED 00Z 26-MAR  -0.1    -7.8              83      75    0.16     529     520    

IAD?

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