I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looking forward to more York posts over the coming days.I will personally spam you with an endless parade of personal mail containing deck photos and temperature readings every 15 minutes from start to finish. I doubt anything will stick here though so the observations will be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looking forward to more York posts over the coming days.Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Is 2-4 really even on the table for 95 and East? I honestly haven't been paying too much attention to this potential storm for the last 2-3 days. And you call yourself a SnowFan !!?? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sorry.. look how it handles the main low. Not even remotely close to the globals. What a freaking waste of time to discuss it.Agreed. It would be one thing if it were just edging a strong coastal west of the rest of the models. It'd still probably be wrong, but heck, I'd definitely be grasping at it! But look at this mess and compare it to the globals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wonder if J Berk will toss his beloved Canadian model in favor of the NAM. I am sure he can invent some reason why it should verify. Berk is listed in today's Baltimore Sun "best of" magazine as best online meteorologist in the area (!!??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 And you call yourself a SnowFan !!?? ;-) it was like 70 yesterday afternoon. Snow wasn't even on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 it was like 70 yesterday afternoon. Snow wasn't even on my mind. Yeah, I'm JK. Spent a great day hiking on Kent Island yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Agreed. It would be one thing if it were just edging a strong coastal west of the rest of the models. It'd still probably be wrong, but heck, I'd definitely be grasping at it! But look at this mess and compare it to the globals.... I know 'it's a weather forum' and all that but multiple nam snowmaps and talk of York jackpots a bit much. If it was handling the main low better maybe it's on to something but given it's not everything else is pretty suspect. Might as well focus on the euro ens being west last night. Much better grasping material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Found the EPS low link.. postage stamp url. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 In the NYC forum people are saying the low off OBX is closer to the coast. per the GFS. FWIW WPC has us in the .25-.5 QPF band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS looks decent in the 12z-18z panel but mild sfc.. eta: may be close enough for grass stickage with rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Low pops a bit quicker near outer banks but then it's actually a little SE of 6z next panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 All models have been consistently showing us getting some precip from the ul energy swinging through and getting pulled into the coastal. The coastal track hasn't improved in days. We are quite unlikely to get ccb/deform precip here but the interaction between the ul energy and slp could be interesting. Maybe a couple inches depending on timing and surface temps. Maybe more than a couple inches (like 4-5 if the stars align). Globals are going to broad brush the evolution so they will always appear smoothed out. High res short range stuff could raise a few eyebrows tonight and tomorrow. Tricky process and moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 All models have been consistently showing us getting some precip from the ul energy swinging through and getting pulled into the coastal. The coastal track hasn't improved in days. We are quite unlikely to get ccb/deform precip here but the interaction between the ul energy and slp could be interesting. Maybe a couple inches depending on timing and surface temps. Maybe more than a couple inches (like 4-5 if the stars align). Globals are going to broad brush the evolution so they will always appear smoothed out. High res short range stuff could raise a few eyebrows tonight and tomorrow. Tricky process and moving parts. Think we basically have one real window with that heaviest burst.. plus perhaps anything that arrives before sunrise. Unless we get a shift anything more than 1-2" seems a stretch and even that might be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Think we basically have one real window with that heaviest burst.. plus perhaps anything that arrives before sunrise. Unless we get a shift anything more than 1-2" seems a stretch and even that might be tricky. As is, totally agree. t-2 would be a "solid hit" from what's being advertised. Could end up with a couple enhanced bursts depending on the interaction. Maybe a little more dynamics and squeeze than we expect. Maybe I'm in a good mood from a great day yesterday and my glasses are rosy. I could easily see a modest surprise though. Not widespread but a stripe or 2 somewhere nearby. Or in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 lol- amounts are wrong for obvious reasons but the gfs caught on to the pattern over the last 4-5 weeks. MA specials can't be ignored or denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 As is, totally agree. t-2 would be a "solid hit" from what's being advertised. Could end up with a couple enhanced bursts depending on the interaction. Maybe a little more dynamics and squeeze than we expect. Maybe I'm in a good mood from a great day yesterday and my glasses are rosy. I could easily see a modest surprise though. Not widespread but a stripe or 2 somewhere nearby. Or in my yard. I'll consider 1-2" a win I do know I wouldn't want to be ENE where every slight model in each run changes from a few inches to a few feet... they need nerves of steel on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 48 hrs RGEM is pretty unimpressive, though it looks to give us a light snowfall extrapolated http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 60 hrs. UKmet gives us GFS-type qpf http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h60&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 As is, totally agree. t-2 would be a "solid hit" from what's being advertised. Could end up with a couple enhanced bursts depending on the interaction. Maybe a little more dynamics and squeeze than we expect. Maybe I'm in a good mood from a great day yesterday and my glasses are rosy. I could easily see a modest surprise though. Not widespread but a stripe or 2 somewhere nearby. Or in my yard.Think the signal is for some sort of frontogenesis band in that good panel. I'd like to see the model show temps at freezing before getting too excited though it would prob be nice to watch as is. If for some reason we can time it perfectly to get something on the ground before sunrise and then heavier bands maybe. Any accum at this pt is a win.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Think the signal is for some sort of frontogenesis band in that good panel. I'd like to see the model show temps at freezing before getting too excited though it would prob be nice to watch as is. If for some reason we can time it perfectly to get something on the ground before sunrise and then heavier bands maybe. Any accum at this pt is a win.. Yea, I'm interested in the high res short range stuff when we get closer. The vort pass is pretty good and there's a bunch of little pieces mixed in. It would be pretty funny if somwhere in our area scored the jackpot relative to everywhere else. There's been some hints that the best precip on land could in fact be the ul energy swinging through here but the bombing low being too far east for everyone. We'll see what the euro says. I'm just in it for the novelty. I'm starting to read about tstorms now so I don't look like a complete noob in a month or so. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Did the equatorial breach happen yet? Wanted to know so I could tell my grandchildren where I was when it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Did the equatorial breach happen yet? Wanted to know so I could tell my grandchildren where I was when it happened. the only thing breached was LC's promise of a big snow for the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GEM is uneventful light snow for us and painful miss for most of ENE, but for the eastern cape and part of the island (and it may be rain there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS and NAM give us more than SNE. It's kind of funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It looks a lot like winter today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS and NAM give us more than SNE. It's kind of funny. Mid-Atlantic special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS and NAM give us more than SNE. It's kind of funny. Persistence forecasting FTW. My bar is 1". Time to break out the laser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Lets give SREF a big hug. The mean is 3.14" with 1.08" min and 6.71 max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 the only thing breached was LC's promise of a big snow for the east coast More like an Equitorial Reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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